Athena Market Buzz

1430 18012024 Athena Market Buzz Thursday

Good Day to all, 

Mdex exhibited a higher opening, and by midday, it is already trading over 1% higher, with April at RM 3866 +51, reaching a day's high at RM 3895, and currently trading at RM 3888+73. MDEX is poised for triple-digit gains today, driven by the biofuel mandate and robust Ramadan demand, which is expected to limit palm supplies. While fundamentally strong, profit-taking is anticipated between RM 3850-3950, potentially making RM 4000 a resistance level that could push the market back below RM 3750. As reiterated before, the optimal range for long-term longs is between RM 3450-3550, and short positions should be considered only if the market breaks the RM 4250 level, falling within RM 4250-4450. During this period, one should trade their position judiciously without being overly bearish. Crude oil corrected by 1% yesterday, influenced by weaker Chinese data, but today the market is up again, suggesting that the dip may encounter strong buying support. In India, ROL was offered at USD 890 in the morning and is now at 900, while buyers are showing interest at USD 885. On the CPO front, sellers are at USD 920, and buyers are looking to pay USD 910. Locally in India, cargoes are still being sold at a disparity of USD 20, with sellers aiming for INR 850, while buyers are maintaining their purchase levels at INR 845. The local market disparity is expected to diminish soon, leading to an upward movement of ROL towards INR 870.

CBOT bean oil exhibited significant activity last night, settling higher with May at 48.06 +38 and July at 48.20 +32. The crucial level of 47.50 was defended, and the markets are anticipated to remain firm. Farmers are protesting official data on seed production, and potential resistance may be encountered if beans correct below 12.00. Notably, there is strong support around 11.50, but the majority of the straight comes from oil in the crush and is above 12.00. The biofuel mandate in India insisting on using more corn to produce ethanol may provide support to meal prices. The basis has firmed up, and after a temporary dip in the flat price, the market is back at USD 860 FOB on the sell side. India witnessed substantial volumes of bean oil trading for FM and April months, with a few trades reported for May as well, although today is quieter. Offers to India for Feb are at 942, and March at 939, reflecting a 20-25 increase compared to the lowest offers yesterday. For MJJ, a seller yesterday at USD 885 is now indicating USD 910 to sell. It is reiterated that prices below USD 900 are attractive for making longs for MJJ, and one should not hesitate. Strong US data and robust sales may delay the interest rate cut from the FED, but a March interest rate cut is anticipated. In the Indian hinterland, soybean seeds are trading between INR 47500-48500, solvent oil is indicated around INR 850, and refined soybean oil is quoted between 900-920, depending on the location.

Black Sea sunflower oil remains stable, with offers ranging between USD 945 to 925, depending on the shipment month. Renewed interest in sunflower oil is observed as soya is currently outpricing itself. Sunflower oil, when offered below soya, is expected to trade in volumes. The levels of USD 900-950 are considered good for going long till March 2024, and levels between USD 850-900 are deemed very favorable for MJJ. Expectations are for sunflower oil to firm up further, eventually trading over USD 1000 CNF India. Supply disruptions due to shipment and logistic issues are creating tightness in the local market. Egypt's participation in tenders is expected to stimulate more soya trading. In 6 ports Europe, trading is slightly higher, approximately around USD 955, and flat price offers to Spain are also around USD 935 for Feb shipment.

  • ARGENTINA-
  • Feb-880/-970(Fob Slr 857.59$/Byr 845.68)+19$
  • Mar-920/-1060(848.77/817.91)+14
  • May-1050/-1150(828.05/806.00)+13
  • JJ-1050/-1150
  • BRAZIL-
  • Feb-850/?(864.20/?)+12
  • Mar-900/-1000(853.18/831.13)+21
  • Apr-950/-1200(850.09/794.98)
  • May-950/-1200(850.09/794.98)+15
  • JJ-950/-1200
  • 6 ports Europe FM 965 vs 935
  • AMJ 960 vs 925
  • JAS 975 vs 935
  • Palm Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Apr 3866 +51)
  • H 3871 / L 3800
  • Vol :  25,035
  •  
  • Oln  
  • Fm 865 vs 
  • Amj 850 vs 842.5
  • Jas 820 vs 812.5
  • Ond 815 vs 802.5
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Feb 850 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jan 715 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jan 3930
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Jan 248 (pk) / 250 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jan/Feb 970
  • Rbdpkoln: Jan/Feb 915
  • Rbdpks : Jan/Feb 1090
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 4768 (-2)
  • May 4803 (-3)
  • Jul 4818 (-2)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7366 (+2)
  • Sep 6904 (-2)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil JAN/FEB 840 vs 800
  • Russian sunflower oil JF 835 vs —
  • Romania FOB USD 860 vs 800
  • Spain indicated JF USD 935 vs 910
  • Italy indicated  JF 930 vs —
  • CIF India indications for sunflower oil FEB/MARCH 940 vs —
  • Turkey Mersin indications around USD 900 vs 865
  • Currency INR 83.12, RM 4.71, Rub 88.93 and Euro 1.0897

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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