Athena Market Buzz

1430 16012024 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday 



Good day ,


Mdex witnessed a positive opening, gaining +26 for April. During the lunch session, it traded at RM 3849+49, reaching the day's high at RM 3887+87 as of the current report. It is essential to highlight that long positions initiated around RM 3650 should be exited, considering that our RM 3900 target is nearly achieved. We do not recommend initiating new long positions, and levels between RM 3850 and RM 3950 should be utilized to exit existing longs. Selling is advised only if holding long positions, and going short becomes worthwhile between RM 4250 and RM 4450. To initiate new longs, one should wait for prices to correct below RM 3750, as the range of RM 3450-3550 offers an excellent opportunity for long positions. CPO prices of USD 925 CNF India are encountering challenges in selling, with substantial trades reported for bean oil at similar levels. The disparity in pricing between soft oils and palm makes it difficult for palm to rally further. Anticipating a correction today as traders engage in buying soya and selling palm as a spread, palm remains strong independently. Production challenges and sluggish demand are expected to maintain a balanced scale, and any dips below RM 3750 are likely to attract traders to make long positions. In the local Indian market, ROL prices hover around INR 84,500/- to 85,000/-, witnessing good business. However, a significant rally is not anticipated due to ample oil availability, and sellers will likely keep the rally in check, maintaining price disparities.

The USDA report delivered a bearish surprise, leading to a correction in CBOT while keeping basis unchanged. CNF India reports substantial business in bean oil, with offers around USD 920-925 for Feb/March, placing them below bean oil and even lower than CPO. The West coast of India is actively purchasing this oil, attempting to sell palm as a spread. Expecting strong support for bean oil around 47.50 and a subsequent bounce back over 52.50 soon. In the local market, beans are trading around INR 48,000-50,000 for plant delivery, with degum soybean oil indicated at INR 860 duty paid. Refined soybean oil continues to trade between INR 920-925. Despite ample supply, basis is expected to remain under pressure, but CBOT appears attractive. It is crucial to note that supports in CBOT persist at 47.50, while resistance may emerge around 54.50 and eventually at 57.50 over the next six months. Soft oils are gradually catching up, and while it may take some time, the market is expected to stabilize and move higher. Soybean oil is considered a buy, and concerns regarding oversupply should not be a significant worry.

In Europe, the price of rape seed oil stands at USD 950, while sunflower oil is offered at USD 925 to Spain, compared to Soybean oil into Europe at around USD 930, keeping most oils in a similar range. Sunflower oil is quoted slightly cheaper compared to India, possibly to discharge old contracts first. Delays in shipments to India prompt sellers to keep prices higher to avoid potential losses. Sunflower oil remains overpriced, and major demand is not anticipated. While the ongoing attacks on oil tankers pose questions about supply, it is expected to eventually lift local markets in the Middle East and India. Despite the continuation of the war, the supply of agricultural commodities remains smooth. For Indian buyers, it is reiterated that prices between USD 900-950 should be considered for nearby purchases, and for AMJ, one should wait for prices to correct below USD 900.

  • Argentina SBO
  • Feb 24 -980H/-1050H
  • Mch 24 -1050/-1130
  • MJJ 24 -1100/-1170
  • Brazil SBO
  • Feb 24 -900/-1000
  • Mch 24 -920/-1080
  • AMJ 24 -1050/-1200
  • 6 ports Europe AMJ 935 vs 920
  • JAS   955 vs 930
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Apr 3849 (+49)
  • H 3850 / L 3803
  • Vol :  39,613
  •  
  • Oln  
  • Fm 862.5 vs 
  • Amj 850 vs 842.5
  • Jas 820 vs 815
  • Ond 817.5 vs 805
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Feb 852.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jan 720 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jan 3870
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Jan 245 (pk) / 248 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jan/Feb 965
  • Rbdpkoln: Jan/Feb 905
  • Rbdpks : Jan/Feb 1090
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 4829 (+4)
  • May 4872 (+8)
  • Jul 4878 (+2)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7340 (+38)
  • Sep 6920 (-42)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil JAN/FEB 830 vs 800
  • Russian sunflower oil JF 825 vs —
  • Romania FOB USD 860 vs 800
  • Spain indicated JF USD 930 vs 910
  • Italy indicated  JF 925 vs —
  • CIF India indications for sunflower oil FEB/MARCH 935 vs 915
  • Turkey Mersin indications around USD 900 vs 865
  • Currency INR 83.02, RM 4.68, Rub 88.70 and Euro 1.0896

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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