Athena Market Buzz

 1430 10012024 Athena Market Buzz Wednesday 


Good Morning, 


Mdex exhibited strength at the opening, and by midday, we were already witnessing robust trading, with Feb at RM 3758 +36 and March at RM 3771 +39, which later surged further, with Feb reaching highs of RM 3798 and March touching 3813. This upward momentum in MDEX influenced CNF Offers, and reports indicate Refined, Bleached, and Deodorized (ROL) being traded at USD 870 into ECI. Sellers proposed a pricing idea of USD 870, but buyers limited themselves to USD 860. Locally in India, there is a disparity in selling imported oil. After yesterday's trades at INR 82,000/-, today's transactions were observed at INR 83,000/-, still below the import cost of INR 84,000/-. Palm is once again in competition with sunflower oil and degum soybean oil, suggesting limited expectations for further price rallies. As mentioned earlier, long positions should be considered for exiting when testing RM 3850, and for short selling, waiting for prices to cross RM 4250 or higher is advisable. We recommend readers to initiate long positions only when prices approach the RM 3550-3450 range; until then, prudent buying based on immediate needs is advised. Close monitoring of the RM 3800 mark is crucial, and if a close above it is achieved, an upward move towards RM 4000 may be anticipated. Until such confirmation, holding longs is advisable, and additional buying can be considered if prices correct below RM 3650.

CBOT bean oil experienced a minor rally ahead of the USDA report on the 12th. March bean oil settled up 64 at 48.45, and May settled up 63 at 48.81, reestablishing support at 47.50. Despite ample crop and supplies, bean oil's volatility is expected to be managed around the 47.50 level, with basis adjustments keeping the flat price relatively unchanged. CNF India offers for bean oil are mostly flat until April at USD 940, with only MJJ showing a slight reduction. Indians are inclined to pay for soybean oil as sunflower oil prices become relatively costly. Logistical challenges in Russia and substantial delays in loading cargo are harmonizing overall markets, favoring soybean oil. As mentioned previously, nearby oils can be purchased between USD 900-950; however, caution is advised for pricing MJJ. The USDA report on the 12th may lean slightly bearish, so enthusiasm for palm rallies should be tempered. India is expected to receive all stuck sunflower oil cargoes at once, potentially depressing markets. Therefore, readers are advised not to get overly excited about near-term demand and to refrain from pricing too far forward. In the Indian market, yards are trading just above the Minimum Support Price (MSP), and there has been no notable rally since the harvest. Solvent bean oil is around INR 870 in the hinterland, and duty-paid degum soybean oil at ports is indicated at INR 855-86,000/-.

Russia continues to face challenges in shipping stuck cargoes, with no clear information on when these will reach India. Indians are utilizing existing stock and are not enthusiastic about paying premiums for forward months. Sellers to India are quoting a price of USD 920, while China continues to procure sunflower oil in containers at lower levels (reported prices of USD 850-860). China has reduced the import duty on sunflower seeds from 15% to 9%, facilitating smoother exports of seeds to China. Rape seed oil to Europe is also competitively priced at around USD 930, making sunflower oil prices to Europe, Turkey, and India appear relatively expensive. It is suggested that Indians refrain from making long positions in sunflower oil unless they secure a significant discount compared to bean oil, especially for forward months like MJJ. It is reiterated that for nearby prices, a range of USD 900-950 is acceptable for long positions, and for forward months, waiting for prices to dip below 900 is recommended. In six European ports, the day began with indicative offers around 940, with buyers willing to pay slightly above USD 920. Turkish buyers are indicating a willingness to pay about USD 855, but sellers are not quoting below USD 885 at the moment.

  • Argentina SBO
  • Feb 24 -960H/-1000H
  • Mch 24 -980/-1100
  • MJJ 24 -1100/-1160
  • Brazil SBO
  • Jan 24 -850/-1000
  • Feb 24 -800/-1000
  • Mch 24 -850/-1000
  • AMJ 24 -1080/-1150
  • 6 ports Europe SFO, FOB
  • FM    940 vs 925
  • AMJ  935 vs 917.5
  • JAS   950 vs 930 
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close (Pre MPOB)
  • Bmd : Mar 3771 (+39)
  • H 3780 / L 3721
  • Vol :  36,288
  •  
  • Oln  
  • Jan 845 vs
  • Fm 845 vs
  • Amj 840 vs 835
  • Jas 825 vs 820
  • Ond 825 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Feb 835 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jan 715 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jan 3800
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Jan 242 (pk) / 243 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jan 960
  • Rbdpkoln: Jan 900
  • Rbdpks : Jan 1100
  • Sbo : 
  • Jan 4812 (unch)
  • Mar 4853 (+8)
  • May 4887 (+6)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7170 (+174)
  • Sep 6972 (+136)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil JAN/FEB 790 vs 760
  • Russian sunflower oil JF 780 vs —
  • Spain indicated JF USD 935 vs 910
  • Italy indicated  JF 930 vs —
  • CIF India indications for sunflower oil FEB/MARCH 925 vs 900
  • Turkey Mersin indications around USD 885 vs 855
  • Currency INR 82.97, RM 4.64, Rub 89.61 and Euro 1.0927

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)

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