Athena Market Buzz

1330 04012024 Athena Market Buzz Thursday

Good morning,

Wishing everyone a very happy New Year in 2024, filled with the realization of your aspirations and abundant hope, positivity, and promising future prospects.

Our market predictions largely held true in 2023, and we anticipate continued support from our research and systems in 2024. Palm is currently within our recommended buying range. As previously mentioned, when MDEX reaches RM 3550, it becomes an excellent buy, and we emphasize that now is the opportune time to consider long positions.

MDEX opened slightly higher, settling at +15 RM 3636 for March and Feb, which is currently trading at MR 3658 and 3663 +42, respectively. In India, ROL traded at USD 837.50 for January shipment, with sellers now quoting above USD 845. While China's procurement activity is presently slow, we anticipate a resurgence, potentially propelling palm prices beyond RM 4500. Current prices indicate limited downside risk, and there is no need for discouragement or anticipation of a collapse. Long positions between RM 3450-3550 can be liquidated around RM 3950-4000, and if prices cross RM 4000 before March, one can consider short positions. Post-March, the trading range is expected to be higher, and shorts should be initiated for prices exceeding MR 4750.

In the Indian market, ROL is quoted with a disparity at INR 815. We advise buyers to take advantage of current prices, secure their requirements, and consider long positions for forward months, with downside protection around INR 785.

CBOT bean oil settled marginally higher, with Jan +31 at 48.10, March +31 at 48.60, and Soybeans settling +3.4 for March at 12.77. CBOT bean oil should logically hold above 47.50, and cautious long positions can be initiated with a stop loss at 47.00. Rains in dry areas of Brazil are positively influencing sentiments, but with increased production and ample supply, excessive bullishness in soft oils, including soybean oil, is cautioned. Bean oil prices are expected to remain range-bound, and current CNF India offers for Jan-Feb at USD 930-935 can be considered, with excellent long opportunities when MJJ falls below USD 900. Readers are urged to trade bean oil carefully, considering long positions CNF India only when prices for MJJ fall between USD 850-900.

On FOB, trading between USD 770-800 is anticipated, attractive for other destinations to make long positions. Locally in India, duty paid degum prices are now INR 850, higher than sunflower oil, leading to a shift in demand towards sunflower oil. Soybeans in market yards are back at Minimum Support Price (MSP), and stocking up on beans before April 2024 for potential sale in July/August is advised.

In the Black Sea, Ukraine is partially operating, with some traders returning after the 7th celebration of Christmas. Trades to India for sunflower oil are heard around USD 890-900 for forward months, and buyers are hesitant to pay over USD 880 due to a depressed local market. Sunflower oil prices below USD 900 are considered excellent for long positions for AMJ, and even for nearby contracts, paying USD 910-920 is recommended. Winter specs biofuel processors are seeking sunflower oil as feedstock, and the relatively warm weather in India is expected to get colder, supporting consumption. Slow shipping from Ukraine and Russia is creating a supply shortage for India, prompting refiners to seek local supplies and potentially leading to a strong recovery in the local market. Europe's sunflower oil is indicated at USD 920, but buyers expect prices to trade below USD 900, making trade negotiations challenging.

  • Argentina SBO
  • JF 24 -950H/-1030H
  • Mch 24 -960/-1090
  • MJJ 24 -1100/-1200
  • Brazil SBO
  • Jan 24 -/-960
  • Feb 24 -/-1000
  • Mch 24 -/-1100
  • AMJJ 24 -/-1200
  • 6 ports Europe feb/march 935 v 925 amj 925 v 905 jas 940 v 920
  • Palm  Midday Market Close
  • Bmd : Mar 3636 (+15)
  • H 3660 / L 3628
  • Vol :  15,668
  •  
  • Oln  
  • Fm 825 vs
  • Amj 820 vs 815
  • Jas 810 vs 802.5
  • Ond 810 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jan 820 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jan 700 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jan 3700
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Jan 237 (pk) / 239 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jan 915 (PG)
  • Rbdpkoln: Jan 875
  • Rbdpks : Jan 1070
  • Sbo : 
  • Jan 4810 (unch)
  • Mar 4842 (-18)
  • May 4881 (-18)
  • Dce :  
  • May 6964 (-34)
  • Sep 6830 (-38)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil JF 780 vs 750
  • Russian sunflower oil JF 770 vs—
  • Spain indicated for Jan at USD 920 vs 900
  • Italy indicated for Jan at USD 915 vs —
  • CIf India price idea for Jan 905 and Feb 905 vs 890., March April 900 vs 880
  • Turkey not offered so far 
  • Currency INR 83.21, RM 4.63, Rub 92.06 and Euro 1.09

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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