Athena Market Buzz

1530 07122023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday 


Good Day to every one. 


We recommended to our readers earlier to consider long positions, and today, MDEX has presented a favorable opportunity for such positions. The market opened lower, with February hitting a daily low of RM 3641 before noon but eventually settling at RM 3682, down by 37 points. While the downside for MDEX is expected to be limited to MR 3450, those looking to purchase cargo can cautiously start acquiring at current levels.

Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below 40%, indicating bearish market conditions, we view this as an opportunity to initiate long positions. In India, substantial volumes of ROL were traded today, ranging between INR 820-822.50 in Chennai, and in USD, trades were reported between USD 825-830. Overall, the market outlook remains positive, and we advise traders not to succumb to panic but to gradually enter long positions. Short positions are not recommended at current levels, and exiting long positions should be avoided.

For MDEX in the range of RM 3850-3950, an opportunity to exit long positions is anticipated. Conversely, prices exceeding RM 4250 should be considered for initiating short positions. Soft oils are undergoing a correction, narrowing the spread with Palm oil, and we foresee a rally in soft oil prices on a flat price basis.

Bean oil experienced another decline, with January down by 92 points at 49.34 and March down by 91 points at 49.30. The basis remains lackluster, pushing the flat price of bean oil lower. Factors such as improved weather, weaker crude oil, and reduced demand contribute to the price correction. India CNF for Dec/Jan was offered at USD 975, and MJJ was already at 900. Despite strong support at 47.50, we anticipate prices bouncing back up with consolidation at 54.50. The pace of the rally will depend on tomorrow's USDA report. Readers are encouraged to initiate long positions for nearby cargo upon hearing prices of USD 950 or lower and for MJJ when trading lower.

Black Sea sunflower oil sellers are quoting CNF India prices of USD 950, but buyers are aiming to pay around USD 920-925. FOB Black Sea dropped to about USD 800, and buyers are looking to pay around USD 785 or lower. In Europe, 6 ports are already offering below 935 for JFM, while buyers are standing at 900, causing apprehension among sunflower oil destination buyers. Indian bids are at USD 920, but there is a likelihood of further reduction once bookings are made. Sunflower oil supply remains smooth, and availability is not expected to be an issue. To reiterate, sunflower oil becomes a buy for Jan and Feb between USD 900-950 and for March onwards below the 900 mark.

  • Argentina SBO
  • DJ 24 -900F/-950F
  • Feb 24 -950/-1130
  • Mch 24 -1050/-1230
  • MJJ 24 -1200/-1320
  • Brazil SBO
  • Jan 24 -820/-
  • Feb 24 -950/-
  • Mar  24 -1050/-
  • AM 24 -1150/-
  • JJ 24 -1180/-
  • 6 ports Europe sfo jfm 935 v 910 amj 935 v 910 jas 945 v 920
  • Palm oil Bmd : Feb 3699 (-20)
  • H 3726 / L 3641
  • Vol :  71,522
  • Oln  
  • Dec 815 vs 
  • Jan 825 vs
  • Jfm 825 vs 
  • Amj 840 vs 832.5
  • Jas 830 vs 820
  • Ond 830 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jan 815 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Dec 717.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Dec 3650
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Dec 237 (pk) / 239 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Dec 920
  • Rbdpkoln: Dec 870
  • Rbdpks : Dec 1050
  • Sbo :  
  • Dec 4929 (unch)
  • Jan 5004 (+70)
  • Mar 4998 (+68)
  • Dce :  
  • Jan 6916 (-74)
  • May 7044 (-80)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB USD 800 vs 785
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB USD 795 vs —
  • Spain indicated for Dec /Jan 940 vs 920
  • Italy indicated for Dec/Jan at USD 935 vs —
  • Turkey after trading 895 is now indicated again at USD 895 with buyers at 870
  • CIF India offers for Dec Jan cargo at USD 950 to do 940 buyers are looking at USD 920 may be
  • Currency INR 83.34, RM 4.67, Rub 93.18 and Euro 1.0764

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz Friday

1400 27012023 Athena Market Buzz Friday  Mdex opened firm and as expected jump from 3750 is targeting RM 4000 on the upside where it may feel some more resistance. At lunch MDEX settled at RM 3857 +1.9% and at the time of writing this report is also trading around there only. Exports are slowly picking up and the loss of export will be lesser as we look at 1-31 Jan export numbers. We expect today the markets to remain firm and with some more strength coming in soft oils flat price we could attempt to touch RM 3900 today or early next week. Over all view is same  a maximum 10% downside risk around RM 3750 with a potential of 20% jump eventually. We would suggest our readers to make longs between RM 3450-3750 and sell it once we cross RM 4000 . Be ready to short the market once we cross RM 4250-4450.  CPO prices to India are maintained at USD 995-1005 and we expect it to find decent support here. Locally ROL is trading in India at 900 and we heard some business WCI already....
Read more

AthenaBUzz

1530 14092023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday  Good Afternoon, India imported over 295,000 mt of sunflower oil in the month of Aug and we expect that the imports for Sept will be in excess of 250,000 MT again pushing the 6 monthly imports to around 1.7 million MT. These are high numbers and it appears that the demand for sunflower oil will continue to rise with the current discounts and in next 6 months India may end up importing another 2 million MT of sunflower oil making yearly total to 3.5 Million MT for April 2023-March 2024. The excess oil is basically imported by  Kandla based traders who do not won Refinary and cumulatively this is about 300,000 mt. in past 5 months. Ukraine sunflower oil is getting aggressively offered to India at USD 865/870 , CIF Marmara we heard trades at USD 775 and Mersin traded at USD 780 today the offers are about USD 10 higher but we expect the same prices to trade again. India too bought some volume about 18,000 mt in east coast at USD 860 with f...
Read more