Athena Market Buzz

1530 06122023 Athena Market Buzz Wednesday 


The recommendation is a "BUY" for Palm as Mdex initially opened lower. By lunchtime, we observed trading for Jan at RM 3644 -83 and Feb at RM 3700 - 81. Notably, just a month ago on November 6th, Jan was trading at RM 3757 and Feb at RM 3784, indicating a tight market range. Readers who sold their longs between RM 3850 to 3950 are advised to prepare for purchasing volumes. Palm is anticipated to find strong buying support below RM 3700, and levels up to RM 3450 should be considered for acquisition. Significant buying opportunities can be found between RM 3550-3450, as there is an inclination to sell MDEX when sunflower oil prices correct in India. MDEX, independently, is well-positioned, alleviating concerns about the downside.

Operational challenges persist in South India due to a cyclone, impacting the market. CPO for Jan traded at 867.50, and ROL sellers have been noted at USD 840, roughly equivalent to INR 82,500/- in local markets, with some opting to sell at INR 82,000/-. Local price corrections may find support at INR 78,500/-, while USD prices are expected to stay above USD 800 CNF India. Although the RSI has corrected below 45%, traditionally considered bearish, buying interest is suggested once it falls below 40%, anticipating a sharp and rapid upward movement.

CBOT bean oil experienced a significant correction, with Jan at -98, reaching 50.26, and March at -92, hitting 50.21 after dropping below 50.00. Strong support is anticipated at 47.50, making it attractive for long positions. Basis, however, is unattractive, and a correction towards -1200 is expected, providing an opportunity for long positions in Jan/Feb. The flat price for bean oil for Dec/Jan CNF India corrected to USD 995, and Feb to USD 985. Prices between USD 950-1000 are considered attractive for long positions for DJF, while prices between USD 900-950 for MA and below USD 900 for MJJ CNF India basis. An upside testing for CBOT at 54.50 is expected soon, with basis stabilizing around -1200 levels in India at USD 1000, and limited upside to USD 1150.

Locally in India, crushing activities are progressing well, keeping local oils in disparity with imported oil. Degum soybean oil is trading at INR 850+ duty, still costlier than locally available sunflower oil for Nov/Dec shipments at INR 850 duty paid.

Black Sea sunflower oil aggressive sellers are quoting FOB prices around 820-830, but CIF transformation to India costs over USD 140, resulting in CIF LW India prices around USD 960. Europe eyes sunflower oil prices of USD 960, while buyers prefer purchasing at USD 940. Rape oil in Europe is trading at USD 1015, providing some room for sunflower oil. It is suggested for Indians to consider long positions between USD 900-950 for nearby cargo and below 900 for far-forward months. Egypt will come to tender for sunflower oil, and with bean oil also correcting, their preferences will be interesting to observe. Locally in India, soybean oil prices pushing sunflower oil prices lower were evident, with reported trades in Kandla for 15 Nov-15 Dec shipment at INR 85,000/-, providing a back-to-back parity of USD 936, indicating limited active buyers in USD.

  • Argentina SBO
  • DJ 24 -850F/-900F
  • Feb 24 -900/-1250
  • Mch 24 -1050/-1280
  • MJJ 24 -1200/-1300
  • Brazil SBO
  • Jan 24 -750/-900
  • Feb 24 -950/-
  • Mar  24 -1100/-
  • AM 24 -1200/-1330
  • JJ 24 -1220/-1350
  • 6 ports Europe SFO 6 ports, FOB
  • JFM 935 vs 910
  • AMJ 937.5 vs 910
  • Palm oil Bmd : Feb 3719 (-62)
  • H 3779 / L 3675
  • Vol :  100,049
  • Oln  
  • Dec 817.5 vs 
  • Jan 827.5 vs
  • Jfm 832.5 vs 
  • Amj 845 vs 840
  • Jas 835 vs 830
  • Ond 835 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jan 817.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Dec 720 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Dec 3680
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Dec 237 (pk) / 239 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Dec 920
  • Rbdpkoln: Dec 870
  • Rbdpks : Dec 1050
  • Sbo :  
  • Dec 5022 (unch)
  • Jan 5016 (-10)
  • Mar 5013  (-8)
  • Dce :  
  • Jan 6930 (-236)
  • May 7070 (-226)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB indications at USD 830  vs 800
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB indications at USD 830 vs -
  • Spain offered at USD 960 vs 935
  • Italy offered at USD 955 vs 930 
  • CIF Lw India indicated Jan 960 vs 930
  • Turkey indicted at USD 890 vs 860
  • Currency iNR 83.31, RM 4.67, Rub 93.39, and Euro 1.0799


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)




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