Athena Market Buzz

1530 05122023 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday 


Mdex commenced the day on a lower note, hitting a four-week low and settling at RM 3799 -25 for February, currently trading at RM 3780-44. The support at RM 3750 appears to have been effective, resulting in a bounce after touching RM 3758. Market activity and sentiments are notably lackluster, suggesting a potential downward trend. As previously mentioned, considering long positions in the range below RM 3550-3450 is advisable, while exiting between RM 3850-3950 is recommended. Crossing the RM 4250 threshold may prompt short positions. The RSI is below 50%, indicating a likelihood of further selling, though the RM 3750 level is expected to provide support. The CNF India ROL is projected at USD 865, lower than the bid, but the cyclone affecting Chennai has disrupted operations, with the market expected to resume in two days. With Soybean oil prices declining, sustaining Palm oil above RM 4000 may be challenging, and while current levels are suitable for long positions, caution is advised, especially around the RM 3550 mark. In the Indian market, ROL is being sold at INR 830, creating a USD 20 disparity.


CBOT bean oil experienced a marginal decline on Monday, with Jan -21 at 51.24 and March -21 at 51.13. Concerns about Brazil's weather have diminished, leading to corrections in basis and pushing flat price Bean oil FOB to USD 945. CNF India offers for Dec/Jan dropped to USD 1025, and April/May could be around USD 940. The current disparity of USD 50 PMT suggests a potential shift in Indian interest towards Palm or Bean oil for deferred positions. Expecting CBOT to bottom out around 47.50 and rally to 54.50, prices between USD 950-1000 are attractive for nearby months, and USD 900-950 are suitable for April/May, lower for June/July.


Black Sea Sunflower oil to India traded at USD 965, experiencing a decline for forward months. Recommending targeting USD 900-950 for nearby months and USD 850-900 for MJJ to initiate long positions, with an exit strategy when prices surpass USD 1050. Despite a substantial crop size and availability, the war is increasing freight costs for Ukraine, while Russia's freight rates remain relatively inexpensive. Due to increased freight costs, India is leaning towards Russian oil. Turkey is trading below USD 900, with offers at USD 885 and buyers at USD 850. Spain and Italy are witnessing offers at USD 950 against buyers at USD 920. In 6 European ports, prices are indicated around USD 945 with buyers possibly at USD 935. The end of December and early January might face logistical challenges due to ice, causing stock pressure for shipments during that period.



  • Argentina SBO
  • DJ 24 -800F/-880F
  • Feb 24 -850/-1150
  • Mch 24 -1050/-1300
  • MJJ 24 -1150/-1350
  • Brazil SBO
  • Jan 24 -650/-800
  • Feb 24 -950/-
  • Mar  24 -1050/-
  • AM 24 -1150/-
  • JJ 24 -1180/-
  • 6 ports Europe Dec - vs 925
  • JFM 955 vs 927.5
  • AMJ 960 vs 930
  • JAS 970 vs 940
  • Palm oil Market Close
  • Bmd : Feb 3780 (-44)
  • H 3840 / L 3758
  • Vol :  68,009
  • Oln  
  • Dec 827.5 vs 
  • Jan 837.5 vs
  • Jfm 842.5  vs 837.5
  • Amj 855 vs 850
  • Jas 845 vs 
  • Ond 845 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jan 825 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Dec 730 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Dec 3700
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Dec 238 (pk) / 240 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Dec 925
  • Rbdpkoln: Dec 875
  • Rbdpks : Dec 1055
  • Sbo :  
  • Dec 5107 (-12)
  • Jan 5114 (-10)
  • Mar 5101 (-12)
  • Dce :  
  • Jan 7112 (-98)
  • May 7238 (-114)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 830 vs 800
  • Russian sunflower oil indicated at USD 835 vs 800
  • Spain indicated for Dec/Jan at USD 950 vs 920
  • Italy indicated for Dec/Jan at USD 945 vs —
  • Turkey indicated for Dec Mersin at USD 890 vs 850
  • CIF India indicated for Dec small volumes at USD 990 vs 960, Jan 990 vs 940
  • Currency INR 83.32, RM 4.66, Rub 91.52 and Euro 1.0835

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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