Athena Market Buzz

1400 18122023 Athena Market Buzz Monday 


Good afternoon,

As we approach the last but one week of 2023, the markets are showing stability, and the transition to 2024 is imminent. This week's activities are expected to remain subdued, lacking major volatility. MDEX started unchanged, with February trading at RM 3705 by lunch, up by 13, and March at RM 3719, up by 8. At the time of writing, both are trading at their daily highs, with February at RM 3738, up by 46, and March at RM 3754, up by 43. Market expectations suggest a range-bound scenario, with limited upside potential, expected to reach MR 3950. We advise readers to consider long positions if prices correct below RM 3600 (within the range of RM 3550-3450), ensuring safety. Profit booking by selling longs between RM 3850-4000 is recommended, and short positions in MDEX are suggested if prices cross RM 4250 on the upside.

Despite some sellers being reluctant to sell, indicative pricing suggests Idea prices should be around USD 850 CNF India. Sellers are attempting to cover their sales to India, keeping the overall Palm complex well supported. Locally, ROL prices are indicated at INR 82,500/-, with buyers looking to pay INR 81,500/-. The RSI is at 37%, and historically, technical rebounds occurred when RSI dropped below 40%. We caution against being overly bearish and recommend owning dips.

CBOT bean oil settled marginally higher on Friday, with March up 44 at 50.15 and May up 45 at 50.41, mostly unchanged at the time of writing. Higher US crushings, confirmed by NOPA, aided market recovery. CNF India offers for bean oil rose to USD 960-965 for JF, while MJJ remained above USD 920. Indian buyers should consider purchasing when MJJ prices drop below USD 900, as sales are likely around USD 1000. Bean oil, competing closely with sunflower oil, may regain market share, but good weather forecasts will maintain price competitiveness. In India, soybeans are priced around INR 50,000/-, while refined soybean oil trades around INR 90,000/-, and with forward in inverse, a major rally in soybeans is not expected, with a limited range between INR 48,000/- to INR 52,500/- plant delivery.

Sunflower oil traded within a USD 25 range last week, with highs at USD 945 and lows at USD 920. Near-term prices are offered to India at USD 935, while March is quoted at USD 920. Sunflower oil faces tough competition from soybean oil, leading to reduced imports in India. Traders with fixed agreements with Russian/Ukrainian sellers find it challenging to price cargo due to higher quotes, and new business is happening at lower rates. Despite the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the transport of cargo appears relatively safe compared to attacks in the Red Sea. Sunflower oil is expected to resist going below USD 850 for the entire year, with limited upside to USD 1100. Current levels around USD 900-920 are deemed safe for long positions, with local demand in India expected to pick up after the new year.

  • Argentina SBO
  • Jan 24 -1000/-1100
  • Feb 24 -1050/-1220
  • Mch 24 -1080/-1250
  • Apr -1180/-1280
  • MJJ 24 -1180/-1280
  • Brazil SBO
  • Jan 24 -/-850
  • Feb 24 -850/-1050
  • Mch 24 -1050/-120
  • MJJ 24 -1150/-1250
  • 6 ports Europe JFM 940 vs 930
  • AMJ 940 vs 925
  • JAS 950 vs 932.50
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close
  • Bmd : March 3719 (+8)
  • H 3727/ L 3687
  • Vol :245,37
  • Oln  
  • Jan 822.5 vs 
  • Jfm 825 vs 15 (Jan,PG)
  • Amj 830 vs 825
  • Jas 820 vs 812.5
  • Ond 820 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jan 822.5/20 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jan 707.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Dec 3700
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Dec/Jan 240 (pk) / 240 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Dec/Jan 925
  • Rbdpkoln: Dec/Jan 875
  • Rbdpks : Dec/Jan 1055
  • Sbo :  
  • Dec 5004(+5)
  • Jan 5024 (+9)
  • Mar 5048 (+7)
  • Dce :  
  • Jan 7044 (-20)
  • May 7076 (-38)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil Jan/Feb 785 vs 00
  • Russian sunflower oil J/F 780 vs 760
  • Spain Indicated for Jan / Feb at USD 920 vs 900
  • Italy indicated for Jan/feb at USD 915 vs —
  • CIF India lw price indications for Jan 935, Feb /March 930 and buyers are looking at USD 900 for FMA. 
  • Turkey indicated Mersin jan around USD 880 vs 860
  • Currency INR 83.00, RM 4.69, rub 90.42 and euro 1.0911

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)

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