Athena Market Buzz

 1500 12122023 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday


Good afternoon. Mdex opened marginally higher and later gave in to marginal stock reduction settling by lunch at -17 at RM 3724 for Feb and -18 at RM 3748 for march.Crude oil is trading at lows with Brent at 76.30 , this is not helping Palm oil either and with winters we still dont see any major fuel demand. Production cuts in Palm so far are not alarming as the exports are also coming lower but eventually these cuts will slowly drawdown the stocks pushing prices higher. Spread between Soybean oil and Palm has reduced making soft oil little more attractive over palm however we still expect Palm to end decent supports between RM 3550-3450 and levels below RM 3750 are worth nibbling. On the up side we can expect palm to rally soon towards RM 4000 which is where we expect long liquidation and should prices rally over RM 4250 we should be ready to make shorts. India was relatively quiet today with local buyers looking to pay only INR 820 and sellers holding the prices around INR 825. In USD we are havingROL sellers around USD 850 to do USD 845 but we have not heard any major trades. Current market trend is neutral and dips will give opportunity to make longs. 


Bean oil after USDA found some support and Jan settled +91 at 51.11  and Mar +89 at 51.06. As mentioned before CBOT is supportive below 50-47.50 and now it should rally towards immediate resistance of 54.50 eventually to test 57.50. On other hand basis are mostly maintaining mild stand with sellers for DJ and FM around -1020-1050 pushing flat price slightly higher for near by over USD 900 and for May at USD 865 FOB. CNF India the offers for bean oil are around USD 975 and we heard good trades yesterday for various old crop positions. Some sellers were also targeting to sell MJJ but buyers for those positions dont want to pay higher than USD 900 with current offers being USD 930. Locally in India seed crushing is keep the availability smooth and most of the soft oil demand is being met with local oil. 


Black Sea sunflower oil after trading to India last week below USD 920 is back to trade over USD 945. Yesterday India saw some pricing between USD 942.50-947.50 and today the sellers have already increased the prices to USD 955 with buyers still looking to pay USD 940 for near by. India is not rushing to purchase the cargo and we expect that these prices have further down side potential. Though the levels between USD 900-950 are good to go long for JFM but prices below 900 are only suitable for MJJ months. Europe has also firmed up a bit with sellers now asking for prices over USD 950 for Spain and 6 ports sellers looking at USD 960 with no buyers. Turkey is holding the jut around USD 900 with buyers looking to pay lower. On sunflower oil there is no rush or hurry to price as the top side will get exhausted around USD 1100 while bottom looks well protected around USD 850 CIF India basis. 

  • Argentina SBO
  • DJ 24 -990F/-1080F
  • Feb 24 -1020/-1200
  • Mch 24 -1050/-1280
  • MJJ 24 -1200/-1300
  • Brazil SBO
  • Jan 24 -700/-1070
  • Feb 24 -950/-1150
  • Mar  24 -1100/-1250
  • Apr 24 -/-1300
  • AM 24 -1150/-1300
  • JJ 24 -/-1300
  • 6 ports JFM $960 vs -
  • AMJ - vs $935 
  • JAS $965 vs $940
  • Midday Market Close (PRE MPOB)
  • Bmd : Feb 3724 (-17)
  • H 3772/ L 3711
  • Vol :  21,429
  • Oln  
  • Dec 825 vs 
  • Jan 830 vs
  • Jfm 832.5 vs 
  • Amj 840 vs 832.5
  • Jas 830 vs 820
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jan 825 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Dec 730 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Dec 3680
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Dec 240 (pk) / 240 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Dec 930
  • Rbdpkoln: Dec 880
  • Rbdpks : Dec 1060
  • Sbo :  
  • Dec 5106 (unch)
  • Jan 5096 (-15)
  • Mar 5086 (-20)
  • Dce :  
  • Jan 7096 (+32)
  • May 7204 (+44)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB USD 820 vs 785
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB USD 810 vs —
  • Spain indicated for Dec /Jan 950 vs 920
  • Italy indicated for Dec/Jan at USD 945 vs —
  • Turkey indicated at USD 900 with buyers at 870
  • CIF India offers for Dec Jan cargo at USD 955 to do 950 buyers are looking at USD 940 may be
  • Currency INR 83.39, RM 4.68, Rub 91.16 and Euro 1.0764

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz Friday

1400 27012023 Athena Market Buzz Friday  Mdex opened firm and as expected jump from 3750 is targeting RM 4000 on the upside where it may feel some more resistance. At lunch MDEX settled at RM 3857 +1.9% and at the time of writing this report is also trading around there only. Exports are slowly picking up and the loss of export will be lesser as we look at 1-31 Jan export numbers. We expect today the markets to remain firm and with some more strength coming in soft oils flat price we could attempt to touch RM 3900 today or early next week. Over all view is same  a maximum 10% downside risk around RM 3750 with a potential of 20% jump eventually. We would suggest our readers to make longs between RM 3450-3750 and sell it once we cross RM 4000 . Be ready to short the market once we cross RM 4250-4450.  CPO prices to India are maintained at USD 995-1005 and we expect it to find decent support here. Locally ROL is trading in India at 900 and we heard some business WCI already....
Read more

AthenaBUzz

1530 14092023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday  Good Afternoon, India imported over 295,000 mt of sunflower oil in the month of Aug and we expect that the imports for Sept will be in excess of 250,000 MT again pushing the 6 monthly imports to around 1.7 million MT. These are high numbers and it appears that the demand for sunflower oil will continue to rise with the current discounts and in next 6 months India may end up importing another 2 million MT of sunflower oil making yearly total to 3.5 Million MT for April 2023-March 2024. The excess oil is basically imported by  Kandla based traders who do not won Refinary and cumulatively this is about 300,000 mt. in past 5 months. Ukraine sunflower oil is getting aggressively offered to India at USD 865/870 , CIF Marmara we heard trades at USD 775 and Mersin traded at USD 780 today the offers are about USD 10 higher but we expect the same prices to trade again. India too bought some volume about 18,000 mt in east coast at USD 860 with f...
Read more