Athena Market Buzz

 1500 11122023 Athena Market Buzz Monday


Good afternoon, everyone. Hope you have good start to the most active week in December month. 

Mdex commenced the day with a marginal uptick attributed to lower stocks and a modest firming of soft oils. However, as the day progressed, we observed the emergence of resistance, resulting in a decline in palm prices. By midday, February settled at RM 3727, down by 13 points, and March at RM 3755, down by 14 points. Subsequent to the lunch period, a recovery was witnessed in the palm complex. At the time of preparing this report, February is trading at RM 3759, up by 19 points, and March at RM 3784, up by 15 points.

As previously mentioned, strong support for palm is anticipated this week, with a potential drift towards RM 3850 or higher. We suggest considering profit booking around the RM 4000 level. In the event of a correction towards RM 3550-3450, an excellent opportunity to initiate long positions may arise, while prices exceeding RM 4250 could be opportune for short positions. Analysts are closely monitoring moving averages and RSI, signaling bearish trends. Despite this, with core palm demand intact and production concerns, a robust support level is expected between RM 3550-3450, discouraging an overly bearish stance.

In the CNF India market, ROL prices are indicated at USD 850 to 845. In Chennai's local markets, the demand stands at approximately INR 82,000/-, with sellers quoting no less than INR 82,500/-.

Bean oil concluded Friday's trading with January down by 93 points at 50.20 and March down by 80 points at 50.17. Presently, as of the report, January is up by 42 points at 50.62, and March is up by 42 points at 50.59. The USDA's release of unchanged numbers prompted traders to secure profits, contributing to the observed volatility. CBOT bean oil is finding support at 47.50, with purchases expected below 50.00. Initial resistance is at 54.50, but a potential upward trajectory could see CBOT bean oil reaching as high as 57.50. Basis has corrected towards -1000 for nearby and -1200 for MJJ, showing the potential for further correction.

The flat price of bean oil in India for nearby months is around USD 960, closely aligning with sunflower oil prices, and is anticipated to find good support. MJJ prices are already attractive, with aggressive selling reported for MJJ Kandla India. Local market prices range between INR 84,000/- to 85,000/-, with the duty in the buyer's account. We reiterate that prices below USD 900 CNF India are advisable for Indian MJJ, and the range of USD 900-950 is opportune for long positions for JFM. It is emphasized that current levels are not conducive to going short or profit-taking, and it is advisable to await a rally towards USD 1050 for profit booking.

Black Sea sunflower oil remains resilient, with some reports of aggressive Russian sunflower oil trades at USD 918 to ECI. However, most sellers are holding firm at USD 940 on the offer side. Local sunflower oil is priced at around INR 85,000/-, nearing soybean oil prices and consequently experiencing limited demand. Sunflower oil is now offered at prices comparable to soybean oil, constraining its demand to core requirements. In Europe, 6 ports are trading mostly between USD 940-950, and prices to Spain/Italy are in a similar range. As previously noted, sunflower oil trading volumes may increase only if prices significantly undercut bean oil in India or rape seed oil in Europe. Currently, prices are more or less on par with bean oil, and thus, the demand for sunflower oil may remain subdued. CNF India for nearby cargo has transacted at 918, with expectations of additional buyers emerging at prices between USD 900-920. For forward months like MJJ, it is prudent to wait for prices to dip below USD 900.

- Argentina SBO

DJ 24 -1000/-1100

Feb 24 -1020/-1200

Mch 24 -1050/-1280

MJJ 24 -1200/-1300


Brazil SBO

Jan 24 -850/-1050

Feb 24 -1100/-1200

Mar  24 -1050/-1250

AM 24 -1100/-1300

JJ 24 -1120/-1300

  • 6 ports Europe JFM 955 vs 930
  • AMJ 955 vs 930
  • JAS 960 vs 940
  • Palm oil Midday Market  Close
  • Bmd : Feb 3727 (-13)
  • H 3756/ L 3719
  • Vol :  14,451
  • Oln  
  • Dec 825 vs 
  • Jan 830 vs
  • Jfm 835 vs 
  • Amj 845/42.5 vs 835
  • Jas 832.5/30 vs 822.5
  • Ond 830 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jan 825 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Dec 725 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Dec 3680
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Dec 240 (pk) / 240 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Dec 930
  • Rbdpkoln: Dec 880
  • Rbdpks : Dec 1060
  • Sbo :  
  • Dec 5015 (unch)
  • Jan 5051 (+31)
  • Mar 5050 (+33)
  • Dce :  
  • Jan 7058 (+42)
  • May 7150 (+24)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB USD 810 vs 785
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB USD 800 vs —
  • Spain indicated for Dec /Jan 940 vs 920
  • Italy indicated for Dec/Jan at USD 935 vs —
  • Turkey indicated at USD 895 with buyers at 870
  • CIF India offers for Dec Jan cargo at USD 940 to do 930 buyers are looking at USD 920 may be
  • Currency INR 83.39, RM 4.68, Rub 91.78 and Euro 1.0764

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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