Athena Market Buzz

1530 01122023 Athena Market Buzz Friday 


Market Update: Mdex Shows Recovery, Bean Oil Prices Stable, Sunflower Oil Faces Resistancece

Good morning,

Mdex initiated the day with a lower opening, reaching the day's lows by lunch, settling Jan at RM 3791-54 and Feb at RM 3844-51. However, a later recovery led to a settlement on Friday at Jan RM 3822 and Feb RM 3871-24. The current market trend suggests a favorable buying opportunity in palm oil. Approaching the short-term resistance of RM 3750, there's potential for a bounce to RM 4000 before revisiting the RM 3550-3450 levels. Traders eyeing near-term shipments can consider buying at current levels and selling during rallies. Alternatively, for those without a specific program, it's prudent to wait for prices to correct between RM 3550-3450 before initiating fresh long positions. November export volumes surpassing expectations create room for further buying, especially for Dec 2023 / Jan arrivals in India. Anticipated Chinese buying in January is expected to provide additional support. Caution is advised against going short at current levels, with shorts suggested only if MDEX crosses the RM 4250 mark. ROL traded multiple times today at USD 867-870, and local trades in Chennai were reported at INR 83,700/-, with sellers now asking for INR 84,000/-. Locally in India, ROL has the potential to rise further, given its approximately INR 12,000 (USD 144) cost advantage over refining sunflower oil, particularly in the absence of a significant temperature drop.

In the CBOT bean oil market, Jan settled at -38, reaching 52.26, and March at -43, reaching 52.05, maintaining stability as of the report's writing. Basis remains unchanged, exerting downward pressure on flat prices. CNF India offers for DEC JAN are back at USD 1065, while MJJ is being offered at USD 970. MJJ is expected to become an attractive buy in bean oil if it falls between USD 900-950, with anticipated strong buying support in the coming week. CBOT may encounter resistance at 54.50, but an eventual test of the 57.50 mark is expected. Downside resistance breaking at 49.00 and strong supports at 47.50 are anticipated. Locally in India, bean oil prices are now more competitive than sunflower oil, prompting increased consumption of soybean oil and reduced sunflower oil shipments. Refined soybean oil is trading at INR 93,500-94,000/-, while sunflower oil refine is quoted at INR 96,000/-. A suggestion is made to wait for a small correction and make longs for MJJ going forward.

Sunflower oil prices remain mostly unchanged, particularly for India, while sellers explore alternative options. Six ports in Europe are mostly indicated around USD 955, compared to India where prices are quoted at USD 995 without significant interest. Sunflower oil is currently more expensive compared to spot refined soybean oil prices in India, and the disparity increases when compared to degum prices in MJJ. The market observes a USD 50-60 cost difference, and demand is expected to pick up only after this correction. The ongoing war has provided Ukraine and Russia with opportunities to explore new markets as local players dominate most of the selling. Europe's focus on cheaper Rape oil and China's pre-new year silence contribute to the overall view that buyers should aim to secure spot prices in sunflower oil and refrain from purchasing too far forward.

  • Argentina SBO
  • ND 23 -680/-820
  • Jan 24 -680/-820
  • Mar 24 -980/-
  • MJJ 24 -1100/-1300
  • Brazil SBO
  • Jan 24 -650/-800
  • Feb 24 -950/-
  • Mar  24 -1050/-1220
  • AM 24 -1100/-1270
  • JJ 24 -1130/-1300
  • 6 ports EuropeDec 957.5 v 950
  • JFM 955 v 950
  • AMJ 960 v 952.5
  • JAS 970 v 962.5
  • Palm oil Market Close
  • Bmd : Feb 3871 (-24)
  • H 3920 / L 3825
  • Vol :  57,173
  • Oln  
  • Dec 845 vs 
  • Jfm 862.5 vs  
  • Amj 870 vs 865
  • Jas 855 vs 850
  • Ond 855 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jan 835 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Dec 737.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Dec 3780
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Dec 240 (pk) / 242 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Dec 925
  • Rbdpkoln: Dec 875
  • Rbdpks : Dec 1055
  • Sbo :  
  • Dec 5232 (+3)
  • Jan 5226 (unch)
  • Mar 5203 (-2)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 860 vs 840
  • Russian sunflower oil indicated at USD 855 vs 845
  • Spain indicated for Dec/Jan at USD 970 vs 950
  • Italy indicated for Dec/Jan at USD 965 vs —
  • Turkey indicated for Dec Mersin at USD 910 vs 900
  • CIF India indicated for Dec small volumes at USD 990 vs 960, Jan 990 vs 940
  • Currency INR 83.29, RM 4.65, Rub 90.08 and Euro 1.088

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)



Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz Friday

1400 27012023 Athena Market Buzz Friday  Mdex opened firm and as expected jump from 3750 is targeting RM 4000 on the upside where it may feel some more resistance. At lunch MDEX settled at RM 3857 +1.9% and at the time of writing this report is also trading around there only. Exports are slowly picking up and the loss of export will be lesser as we look at 1-31 Jan export numbers. We expect today the markets to remain firm and with some more strength coming in soft oils flat price we could attempt to touch RM 3900 today or early next week. Over all view is same  a maximum 10% downside risk around RM 3750 with a potential of 20% jump eventually. We would suggest our readers to make longs between RM 3450-3750 and sell it once we cross RM 4000 . Be ready to short the market once we cross RM 4250-4450.  CPO prices to India are maintained at USD 995-1005 and we expect it to find decent support here. Locally ROL is trading in India at 900 and we heard some business WCI already....
Read more

AthenaBUzz

1530 14092023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday  Good Afternoon, India imported over 295,000 mt of sunflower oil in the month of Aug and we expect that the imports for Sept will be in excess of 250,000 MT again pushing the 6 monthly imports to around 1.7 million MT. These are high numbers and it appears that the demand for sunflower oil will continue to rise with the current discounts and in next 6 months India may end up importing another 2 million MT of sunflower oil making yearly total to 3.5 Million MT for April 2023-March 2024. The excess oil is basically imported by  Kandla based traders who do not won Refinary and cumulatively this is about 300,000 mt. in past 5 months. Ukraine sunflower oil is getting aggressively offered to India at USD 865/870 , CIF Marmara we heard trades at USD 775 and Mersin traded at USD 780 today the offers are about USD 10 higher but we expect the same prices to trade again. India too bought some volume about 18,000 mt in east coast at USD 860 with f...
Read more