Athena Market Buzz

1530 28112023 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday 

Good morning,

MDEX started the day on a neutral note, but by lunchtime, corrections were observed, reaching RM 3836 for January -9 and RM 3880 for February -11. As of the time of writing this report, the market is trading relatively unchanged. The Indian markets appear lackluster, undergoing consolidation in the palm sector with significant volumes. In the near term, we anticipate finding support around RM 3750, from where a potential bounce back to test RM 4000 could occur. However, the surge might be capped due to increased November production and reduced exports. On the positive side, the rise in demand from China during the new year and India's return to cover may provide a protective bottom. Our strategy remains cautious, considering long positions only if prices break RM 3750 or lower, while liquidating longs if testing RM 4000 is attempted. Short positions can be considered if prices cross RM 4250. The ROL in USD is unchanged at USD 880 for India, while traders in Chennai are looking to sell ROL in the range of INR 840-845. Palm prices may see a rebound if they close around RM 3900 for February, potentially prompting the exit of long positions.

CBOT bean oil experienced a higher settlement last night, with Dec up by 38 at 51.91 and Jan up by 77 at 51.06. However, the basis corrected equally, keeping the flat price more or less unchanged. Offers for degum soybean oil CNF India are reportedly unchanged at USD 1065-1070, with minimal local demand. CBOT is facing resistance around 54.50, while downside protection remains at 49.00. Dips in CBOT should be considered, and a basis trading at -1200 can be considered. For flat prices, making longs between USD 950-1000 for Jan-Feb is advisable, while prices between 900-950 for MJJ are considered attractive, currently indicated at CNF India 970. The local crush has improved, thanks to a robust meal export program, with local soybean seed trading at INR 53,000/- plant delivery, ensuring a well-supplied soybean oil market and addressing the disparity with imported oil.

Sunflower oil offered to India stands at USD 1000, with Turkey indicated at 935 and Spain at USD 980, making the Indian market comparatively expensive. FOB Black Sea is indicated at USD 860-865, but buyers are contemplating volumes. Sunflower oil prices are perceived as high, with a tight range of USD 50. Anticipated November imports to India are around 250,000 mt, continuing into December, part of SND where forward months need to be substantial to meet current crop consumption. Similar to China, India is covered for Nov/Dec shipments, with small volumes traded around USD 980-990. A major trade may materialize if prices drop to USD 950 for Jan/Feb 2024; until then, a wait-and-watch approach is recommended.



  • Argentina SBO
  • Dec 23 -620F/-780F
  • Jan 24 -620/-780
  • Mar 24 -900/-1100-
  • MJJ 24 -1000/-1200
  • Brazil SBO
  • Dec 23 -600/–
  • Jan 24 -620/-800
  • Mar  24 -900/-1200
  • AM 24 -1000/-1250
  • JJ 24 -1020/-1300
  • 6 ports Europe Dec  - vs 945
  • JFM  970 vs 945
  • AMJ  975 vs 945
  • JAS  985 vs 955
  • Palm oil Market Close
  • Bmd : Feb 3894 (+3)
  • H 3931 / L 3864
  • Vol :  59,502
  • Oln  
  • Dec 855 vs 
  • Jfm 865 vs 857.5  
  • Amj 875 vs 870
  • Jas 857.5 vs 850
  • Ond 857.5 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jan 837.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Dec 760 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Nov 3800
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Dec 240 (pk) / 242 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Dec 915
  • Rbdpkoln: Dec 865
  • Rbdpks : Dec 1045
  • Sbo :  
  • Dec 5233 (+42)
  • Jan 5147 (+41)
  • Mar 5113 (+38)
  • Dce :  
  • Jan 7372 (+56)
  • May 7514 (+74)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 870 vs 850
  • Russian sunflower oil indicated at USD 865 vs 845
  • Spain indicated for Dec/Jan at USD 980 vs 950
  • Italy indicated for Dec/Jan at USD 975 vs —
  • Turkey indicated for Dec at USD 935 vs —
  • CIF India indicated for Dec small volumes at USD 995 vs 980, Jan 990 vs 960
  • Currency INR 83.28, RM 4.66, Rub 88.54 and Euro 1.0952

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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