Athena Market Buzz

1500 23112023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday  


Mdex experienced a lower opening, influenced by a slight weakness in bean oil and technical resistance at RM 4000. As of the time of writing this report, MDEX settled for lunch in January at RM 3909-32 and February at RM 3954-34, remaining largely within these levels. The current market sentiment favors selling in Palm, and we do not recommend traders to initiate long positions at the present prices unless an actual cargo need exists.

Although the RSI indicates a bullish market with a value over 60%, we anticipate that most gains will be capped beyond RM 4250. Our suggestion to readers is to consider making shorts above RM 4250 up to RM 4450 and covering those shorts at RM 3701-3750. We plan to wait for prices to correct lower towards RM 3450-3550 before recommending entry into long positions, which should yield favourable margins for destinations.


Crude oil prices experienced a correction as the US reported higher inventories to the tune of 8.7 million barrels, compared to the expected increase of 1.16 million barrels. This led to crude oil trading as low as 75, with further corrections anticipated. Notably, MDEX is currently trading at its highest levels in the past three months, and profit-taking in the palm complex is expected, especially with spread sellers compared to the previous year.


ROL was offered for December to India in small volumes at USD 900, with a similar option for January. Sellers in the local market are quoting around INR 850-855, creating a back-to-back disparity of USD 10 per metric ton. We anticipate that the local market may not improve significantly, but ROL prices in USD could decrease. Profit-taking by Indians who had made longs at lower levels may contribute to a slight lowering of prices.


CBOT bean oil experienced a correction the previous night, with January settling -72 at 52.71 and March -68 at 52.41. Today the market is closed due to thanksgiving.  Basis corrected to -750 for the nearby month and -680 for the next month, causing FOB prices to decrease. In CNF India, offers for bean oil came down to USD 1100 for the nearby month. Russian origin cargo is available at lower prices but is not yet being traded. Levels of USD 900-950 are considered suitable for going long, while current levels are already in a range where booking profits is advisable. Levels of USD 1100 for bean oil can be utilized to sell longs, but we do not recommend making shorts at this time. CBOT may rally towards 57.50 or higher, and we suggest considering shorts at those levels. The basis may drift lower towards -1000 to -1100, prompting traders to think about making long positions in CBOT. Locally, seed prices at the market yard are trading at INR 50,000, and there is good demand. In the hinterland of India, refined oil is trading around INR 96,000, while solvent oil is indicated around INR 90,000.


The Black Sea sunflower oil harvest is complete, with crushing operations in full swing. Indians are paying good prices for sunflower oil, resulting in trades at USD 995 and USD 1000 for Dec-Jan shipments. Most other destinations remain quiet, seeking afloat unsold parcels at more affordable rates. Rape seed oil is showing an upward trend and is quoted around USD 1030 in Europe, competing with sunflower oil. We expect sunflower oil to be aggressively sold after January 11, 2024, when Ukraine resumes activities post-Christmas. Traders are advised to focus on near-term longs and avoid taking positions too far forward. Spain is indicated at USD 990, with buyers willing to pay USD 950, while India is positioned with buyers around USD 990 against offers at USD 1010.


  • Argentina SBO
  • ND 23 -720/-780
  • Jan 24 -680/-810
  • Mar 24 -880/-1100
  • MJJ 24 -1000/-1250
  • Brazil SBO
  • Jan 24 -650/-850
  • Feb 24 -800/–
  • Mar  24 -900/–
  • AM 24 -1000/–
  • JJ 24 -1030/–
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close
  • Bmd : Feb 3954 (-34)
  • H 3994 / L 3946
  • Vol :  29,074
  • Oln  
  • Dec 865 (pk) vs 
  • Jfm 875 vs 870  
  • Amj 882.5 vs 877.5
  • Jas 870 vs 860
  • Ond 870 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Dec 845 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Dec 770 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Nov 3850 
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Dec 245 (pk) / 247 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Dec 940
  • Rbdpkoln: Dec 890
  • Rbdpks : Dec 1070
  • Sbo :  closed
  • Dce :  
  • Jan 7410 (-78)
  • May 7554 (-90)
  • 6 ports Europe not opened yet 
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB indicative only USD 870 vs 840
  • Russia sunflower Oil FOB indications at USD 865 vs —
  • Spain indicated for Dec shipment at USD 990 vs 950
  • Italy indicated for Dec shipment at USD 985 vs —
  • Mersin indicated for Dec shipment at USD 960 vs 925
  • CIF Lw India for 15 dec -15 Jan indicated at USD 1010 vs 995
  • Currency INR 83.33, RM 4.67, Rub 88.14, and Euro 1.0903

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz Friday

1400 27012023 Athena Market Buzz Friday  Mdex opened firm and as expected jump from 3750 is targeting RM 4000 on the upside where it may feel some more resistance. At lunch MDEX settled at RM 3857 +1.9% and at the time of writing this report is also trading around there only. Exports are slowly picking up and the loss of export will be lesser as we look at 1-31 Jan export numbers. We expect today the markets to remain firm and with some more strength coming in soft oils flat price we could attempt to touch RM 3900 today or early next week. Over all view is same  a maximum 10% downside risk around RM 3750 with a potential of 20% jump eventually. We would suggest our readers to make longs between RM 3450-3750 and sell it once we cross RM 4000 . Be ready to short the market once we cross RM 4250-4450.  CPO prices to India are maintained at USD 995-1005 and we expect it to find decent support here. Locally ROL is trading in India at 900 and we heard some business WCI already....
Read more

AthenaBUzz

1530 14092023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday  Good Afternoon, India imported over 295,000 mt of sunflower oil in the month of Aug and we expect that the imports for Sept will be in excess of 250,000 MT again pushing the 6 monthly imports to around 1.7 million MT. These are high numbers and it appears that the demand for sunflower oil will continue to rise with the current discounts and in next 6 months India may end up importing another 2 million MT of sunflower oil making yearly total to 3.5 Million MT for April 2023-March 2024. The excess oil is basically imported by  Kandla based traders who do not won Refinary and cumulatively this is about 300,000 mt. in past 5 months. Ukraine sunflower oil is getting aggressively offered to India at USD 865/870 , CIF Marmara we heard trades at USD 775 and Mersin traded at USD 780 today the offers are about USD 10 higher but we expect the same prices to trade again. India too bought some volume about 18,000 mt in east coast at USD 860 with f...
Read more