Athena Market Buzz

1400 22112023 Athena Market Buzz Wednesday  


Mdex has exhibited notable strength, consolidating strongly below RM 4000. As of today, in January, the lunch settlement stands at RM 3967 (+60), while February settled at RM 4016 (+63). Despite attempts at higher prices, we advise our readers to sell their long positions and await a crossing of RM 4250 before considering further shorts. The market is distinctly bearish, and caution is advised against entering long positions. Levels above RM 3750 carry inherent risks, and given the anticipated increase in production in 2024, substantial rallies should encounter robust resistance.

The RSI momentum, slightly supportive today at over 60%, suggests that long liquidation should be deferred until prices surpass RM 4050. For shorts, it is recommended to wait for prices to exceed RM 4250. On the downside, robust demand from China (preventive measures) and higher soft oil prices will provide support around RM 3450-3550, with mild supports at RM 3750.

CIF India notes demand for Refined, Bleached, and Deodorized (ROL) around USD 885 levels, competing against offers at USD 900-910 for spot and USD 925 for forward months. Locally, ROL is being traded in Chennai and Kandla within the range of INR 84,500-85,000/-.

CBOT bean oil has once again settled higher, with December up 108 points at 54.19 and January up 104 points at 53.43. The weather, coupled with the Fed's decision not to increase interest rates, is driving the rally. CBOT, having found its bottom, is expected to test 54.50 and potentially rally towards 57.50. Basis, which had firmed up to -400, is now indicated at -580 on the offer, with buyers looking at -700, pushing flat prices higher towards USD 1050 on the offer side. CNF India indications are around USD 1140. These high flat prices warrant caution, and readers are advised to refrain from taking action at the moment. A rally is not anticipated once the weather improves, and with sufficient edible oil available for 2024, an overly bullish stance is discouraged. Locally, degummed soybean oils are trading at INR 900-910, and with robust meal exports, soybean seeds are trading at INR 51,000 for whole plant delivery, ranging up to 53,500-54,000/-.

India has traded approximately 10-15000 mt of sunflower oil for shipment between 15th December and 15th January at USD 995. Current offers for the same position have increased to USD 1005. Buyers are aiming for lower prices, but with Mdex holding above RM 4000, affordable sunflower oil sellers are not anticipated. A shortage of sunflower oil is expected in India due to slowed exports from Ukraine and Russia. However, with a sufficient crop in hand, prices are not expected to rally above USD 1050 unless there is significant damage to the Winter rape crop in India or the soybean seed crop in South America. Black Sea sunflower oil FOB prices are indicated around USD 870, with offers to Mersin at around USD 950. Forward months' December shipment to Spain is indicated at USD 980, while buyers aim to negotiate around USD 920. Rape seed oil stands as the cheapest soft oil presently, and short positions may be exited before considering longs in sunflower oil. A decent rally in rape oil is expected, coupled with a strong correction in sunflower oil prices. Buyers are advised to adopt a hand-to-mouth approach with sunflower oil and refrain from making far-forward long positions.

  • Argentina SBO
  • ND 23 -580/-690
  • Jan 24 -580/-730
  • Mar 24 -850/-1200
  • AM 24 -980/-1250
  • Brazil SBO
  • Dec 23 -500/–
  • Jan 24 -600/–
  • Feb 24 -850/–
  • Mar 24 -950/–
  • AM 24 -1020/–
  • JJ 24 -1050/–
  • 6 ports Europe Dec $980 vs $950
  • JFM $980 vs $950
  • AMJ $990 vs $965
  • JAS  $1000 vs $965
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close
  • Bmd : Feb 4016 (+63)
  • H 4024 / L 3942
  • Vol :  37,044
  • Oln  
  • Dec 875 vs 
  • Jfm 887.5 vs 882.5  
  • Amj 900 vs 895
  • Jas 882.5 vs 875
  • Ond 882.5 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Dec 852.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Dec 785 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Nov 3870 
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Dec 246 (pk) / 248 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Dec 945
  • Rbdpkoln: Dec 895
  • Rbdpks : Dec 1075
  • Sbo :  
  • Dec 5435 (+16)
  • Jan 5352 (+9)
  • Mar 5314 (+5)
  • Dce :  
  • Jan 7546 (+54)
  • May 7684 (+24)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB indicative only USD 870 vs 840
  • Russia sunflower Oil FOB indications at USD 865 vs —
  • Spain indicated for Dec shipment at USD 980 vs 930
  • Italy indicated for Dec shipment at USD 975 vs —
  • Mersin indicated for Dec shipment at USD 955 vs 925
  • CIF Lw India for 15 dec -15 Jan indicated at USD 1015 vs 995
  • Currency INR 83.28, RM 4.67, Rub 87.93, and Euro 1.0903

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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