Athena Market Buzz

1530 20112023 Athena Market Buzz Monday  


MDEX began the day with mostly stable numbers and was marginally which was carried on towards lunch as we saw settlement for jan at Rm 3906+15 and Feb at RM 3949 +18. Last entire week we have seen firm markets and as mentioned before current levels are very good to exit longs. Levels between RM 3750-4000 are very good for longs to exit and if the market crosses RM 4250 then only one should think of making shorts. For making longs one needs to wait for prices to cool down a bit and the levels between RM 3450-3550 should always make a good long. We don’t see prices correcting below RM 3250 and on the same side a rally over RM 4250 looks unlikely. Weak economic data, Slower export from Malaysia and slump in crude oil demand also restricts enthusiasm on the up side. ROL in India has started trading at a disparity as the USD prices are around USD 910 and locally the buyers are looking for INR 84,000/- giving a back to back disparity of INR 3000 PMT or USD 36 on replacement. We will not see any aggressive sellers in local market however in USD we can expect aggressive trades. If the weather in US and El Niño phenomenon stabilises than the prices will correct fast till then one needs to continue trade cautiously. 


CBOT bean oil settled Dec +38 at 52.01 and Jan +37 at 51.21 which at the time off writing this report is trading 0.7% higher for both the positions. As mentioned before the CBOT bean oil has the potential to trade higher and test RM 57.50 on the up side however the basis may adjust accordingly hence any one who wishes to make longs can buy CBOT but stay away from basis. On other hand with weather not looking good flat price bean oil has already touched USD 1100 mark and this should be a strong resistance. We would not suggest readers to make near by longs but look to price MJJ as the same is still available at a very competitive price. Sunflower oil is much cheaper compared to bean oil and with good demand from India we will see some more positive trades before we see a correction. Prices between USD 900-950 makes a very strong support to buy and prices over USD 1100 are worth making shorts with a stop loss at USD 1145 CNF India. Locally beans have also performed well and have touched INR 52,000 mark in market yard, these are good levels for local stockist to exit and one should not be too greedy to hold. We expect good farmer selling at current levels as there is enough seeds to crush. 


Black Sea sunflower oil is the most stable oil at the moment with offers to India around USD 1010-1020 we don’t see aggressive buyers , yet very firm offers. On the other hand we see two 6000 MT parcels going into Spain at a price of USD 930 and may trade lower towards 925, while fresh cargo for Dec shipment is offered at USD 980  which is competing with local rape seed oil and will limit the rise. Rape oil is indicate in the north Europe at USD 980 which is getting traded in volumes. Sunflower oil is finding resistance and we should see a strong correction soon. Mostly the prices of sunflower oil will start correcting in Jan and hence we suggest our readers should waiting buy only if you need it. Buy spot stay away from forward positions. Turkey is getting indicated around USD 950 and no trades at the moment, while Indians are the only one paying such a premium to sunflower oil. Time to watch the US weather and wake up to the fact that there is enough sunflower oil in Russia as well as Ukraine. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • ND 23 -600/-660
  • Jan 24 -600/-670
  • Mar 24 -850/-934
  • AM 24 -1000/-1200
  • Brazil SBO
  • Dec 23 -500/-650
  • Jan 24 -560/–
  • Feb 24 -800/–
  • Mar 24 -900/–
  • AM 24 -1000/-1270
  • JJ 24 -1030/-1300
  • 6 ports Europe JFM  $970 vs $945 
  • AMJ $985 vs $955 
  • JAS  $995 vs $960
  • Palm oil Market Close
  • Bmd : Feb 3936 (+5)
  • H 3957 / L 3912
  • Vol :  46,966
  • Oln  
  • Dec 865 vs 855
  • Jfm 875 vs 870 trd 875-873 
  • Amj 880 vs 877.5 trd 880
  • Jas 867.5 vs 860
  • Ond 867.5 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Dec 835 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Dec 785 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Nov 3820 
  • Laurics 
  • Cpko: Dec 247 (pk) / 249 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Dec 945
  • Rbdpkoln: Dec 895
  • Rbdpks : Dec 1075
  • Sbo :  
  • Dec 5230 (+29)
  • Jan 5160 (+39)
  • Mar 5125 (+40)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil no firm FOB offers indicatively USD 840 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil indicatively Dec 840 vs —
  • Spain indicated for afloat at USD 930 and Dec Shipment at USD 960
  • Italy indicated at USD 955 vs —
  • CNF India for pricing the indications are at USD 1010 vs —
  • Turkey indicated for Mersin at USD 920 vs—
  • Currency INR 83.34, RM 4.65, Rub 89.53 and Euro 1.0927

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz Friday

1400 27012023 Athena Market Buzz Friday  Mdex opened firm and as expected jump from 3750 is targeting RM 4000 on the upside where it may feel some more resistance. At lunch MDEX settled at RM 3857 +1.9% and at the time of writing this report is also trading around there only. Exports are slowly picking up and the loss of export will be lesser as we look at 1-31 Jan export numbers. We expect today the markets to remain firm and with some more strength coming in soft oils flat price we could attempt to touch RM 3900 today or early next week. Over all view is same  a maximum 10% downside risk around RM 3750 with a potential of 20% jump eventually. We would suggest our readers to make longs between RM 3450-3750 and sell it once we cross RM 4000 . Be ready to short the market once we cross RM 4250-4450.  CPO prices to India are maintained at USD 995-1005 and we expect it to find decent support here. Locally ROL is trading in India at 900 and we heard some business WCI already....
Read more

AthenaBUzz

1530 14092023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday  Good Afternoon, India imported over 295,000 mt of sunflower oil in the month of Aug and we expect that the imports for Sept will be in excess of 250,000 MT again pushing the 6 monthly imports to around 1.7 million MT. These are high numbers and it appears that the demand for sunflower oil will continue to rise with the current discounts and in next 6 months India may end up importing another 2 million MT of sunflower oil making yearly total to 3.5 Million MT for April 2023-March 2024. The excess oil is basically imported by  Kandla based traders who do not won Refinary and cumulatively this is about 300,000 mt. in past 5 months. Ukraine sunflower oil is getting aggressively offered to India at USD 865/870 , CIF Marmara we heard trades at USD 775 and Mersin traded at USD 780 today the offers are about USD 10 higher but we expect the same prices to trade again. India too bought some volume about 18,000 mt in east coast at USD 860 with f...
Read more