Athena Market Buzz

1400 06102023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday 


Good Afternoon,


Mdex opened lower, and by lunch, the December contract was marginally down at RM 3602-5. As of the time of writing this report, it is trading 0.75% lower, down by -27 at RM 3580. The BMD is currently at its lowest point in the past three to four months, with the market bouncing around RM 3625 before closing lower at RM 3607 yesterday and hitting new lows today. This clear bearish trend is supported by the RSI, which is now even lower at 36%, leaving room for further declines.

Hopes of crude oil reaching $100 per barrel are diminishing, and India has already reduced its overall vegetable oil imports by 19%. Stocks in Malaysia are expected to surpass 2.4 million tons, adding further downward pressure. This confirms our view that MDEX will likely touch RM 3450 soon, with strong support at RM 3250, a level last seen in early June. We recommend our readers consider long positions between RM 3550-3450 and exit these positions once the market reaches RM 3750 or higher. For short positions, it's advisable to wait for prices to approach RM 4250. Palm oil is closely linked to other oil markets, and unless there are supply issues, we can't be overly bullish. CPO was offered to India at USD 860, which is now closer to sunflower oil offers, so it is expected to see limited demand.


The flat price of Degummed Soybean oil corrected last evening following a decline in CBOT prices. December saw a correction of 71 points to 55.28, and January corrected by -87 points to 54.41, with the basis more or less remaining stable at around -1500 on the buy side. We are now approaching our target price on CBOT, and sunflower oil flat prices CNF India also corrected to USD 960. We suggest that our readers monitor this market, and starting next week, we can anticipate increased buying interest. While the Indian market is already experiencing disparity, sunflower oil has held up well due to logistical issues. However, we expect buyers to shift back towards bean oil, potentially narrowing the current spread of USD 50. Soybean prices are finding support at $13.00, and we anticipate prices will remain relatively stable, trading in the range of $12.50 to $13.50. CBOT should find support at 54.50, and we recommend readers consider long positions with a stop loss at 52.50. Indian imports for October are expected to be lower than the 300,000 metric tons received in September, reducing disparity. Overall, we advise our readers not to make long positions under the assumption that this is the bottom, but to make long positions in anticipation of a quick turnaround.


Russia - Ukraine war is intensifying and with this logistical issues keeping situations and prices confused. Ukraine is facing drone attacks and Russia too is feeling the heat. Harvest is in full progress and with this we can surely say there is no issue in the production side and only logistics will determine if the price stabilise or trade lower. Sunflower oil offers to India are staying around USD 900-890 and buyers after looking at bean oil about USD 960 aiming to buy sunflower oil at USD 860. India will continue to buy the core demand of 250,000 mt till we go at par with CSFO but the additional demand comes only when we see significant discount to bean oil. If Russia and Ukraine needs to export more the spread will have to increase and till then destinations like India and china can continue to buy hand to mouth. 



  • Argentina SBO
  • Oct -1470/ -1520
  • Nov -1460/-1520
  • Dec -1450/-1520
  • JF -/-1500
  • Mch -1450/-1600
  • AMJJ/24 -1520/-1750
  • Brazil SBO
  • Nov -1480/-1580
  • Dec -1460/-1560
  • Mch -1500/ -1650
  • AMJJ/24 -1520/-1700
  • 6 ports Europe OND $900 vs $865
  • ND    $900 vs $865
  • JFM  $920 vs $875
  • AMJ  $930 vs $880
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Dec 3602 (-5)
  • H 3632 / L 3563
  • Vol : 35,039
  • Oln  
  • ND 800 vs 790 trd 790 
  • Jfm 825 vs 820 trd 815-817.5
  • Amj 835 vs 827.5 
  • Jas 825 vs 817.5 trd 817.5
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Nov 752.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Nov752.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Oct 3620
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Oct 224 (pk) / 226 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Oct 875
  • Rbdpkoln: Oct 835
  • Rbdpks : Oct 995
  • Sbo :  
  • Oct 5786 (unch)
  • Dec 5517 (-11)
  • Jan 5435 (-6)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil ON FOB indications 760 vs -
  • Russian sunflower oil ON FOB 760 vs —
  • Spain indicated for ND USD 900 vs —
  • Italy indicated for ND at USD 895 vs —
  • CIF India Russian origin indications at USD 910 vs 890 , Argy origin indications about USD 895 vs —
  • Turkey indicatively at USD 860 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.18, RM 4.71, Rub 100.84 and Euro 1.053

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

AthenaBUzz

1530 14092023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday  Good Afternoon, India imported over 295,000 mt of sunflower oil in the month of Aug and we expect that the imports for Sept will be in excess of 250,000 MT again pushing the 6 monthly imports to around 1.7 million MT. These are high numbers and it appears that the demand for sunflower oil will continue to rise with the current discounts and in next 6 months India may end up importing another 2 million MT of sunflower oil making yearly total to 3.5 Million MT for April 2023-March 2024. The excess oil is basically imported by  Kandla based traders who do not won Refinary and cumulatively this is about 300,000 mt. in past 5 months. Ukraine sunflower oil is getting aggressively offered to India at USD 865/870 , CIF Marmara we heard trades at USD 775 and Mersin traded at USD 780 today the offers are about USD 10 higher but we expect the same prices to trade again. India too bought some volume about 18,000 mt in east coast at USD 860 with f...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz Friday

1400 27012023 Athena Market Buzz Friday  Mdex opened firm and as expected jump from 3750 is targeting RM 4000 on the upside where it may feel some more resistance. At lunch MDEX settled at RM 3857 +1.9% and at the time of writing this report is also trading around there only. Exports are slowly picking up and the loss of export will be lesser as we look at 1-31 Jan export numbers. We expect today the markets to remain firm and with some more strength coming in soft oils flat price we could attempt to touch RM 3900 today or early next week. Over all view is same  a maximum 10% downside risk around RM 3750 with a potential of 20% jump eventually. We would suggest our readers to make longs between RM 3450-3750 and sell it once we cross RM 4000 . Be ready to short the market once we cross RM 4250-4450.  CPO prices to India are maintained at USD 995-1005 and we expect it to find decent support here. Locally ROL is trading in India at 900 and we heard some business WCI already....
Read more