Athena Market Buzz

1300 19102023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday


Good Morning,

Mdex began the day with a slight uptick, and by noon, we had breached the critical RM 3812 threshold. January settled at RM 3832, marking a gain of 22 points, while December saw a 19-point increase at RM 3812. The driving forces behind these price movements include robust exports, strong demand from India and China, and a shortage of offers for spot cargo. The upward trajectory of crude oil toward the $100 mark is providing solid support to palm prices. Today's closing above the RM 3812 mark will be a noteworthy development. As previously mentioned, we anticipate some resistance for Palm as we approach RM 3850. We recommend our readers consider liquidating their palm holdings between RM 3850 and RM 4000. If prices surge beyond RM 4200, it may be prudent to open fresh short positions. On the flip side, opportunities for long positions are present between RM 3450 and RM 3550, and even for the more distant months if prices trend towards RM 3250. India has seen offers for CPO at around $900 and for ROL at $875. However, there are reports of some traders considering pricing their cargo around the $840-850 range. Spot cargo is becoming increasingly scarce, and with the upcoming festival season, the affordable inventory is quickly being consumed. We are currently trading at a minimal disparity, but we anticipate this to resolve itself before November 2023, with trade happening at or near replacement levels.

Turning to CBOT bean oil, there was a correction in flat prices yesterday, and Indian prices dipped below the critical $1000 mark. CBOT settled lower yesterday, with December down 55 points at 55.35 and January down 49 points at 54.63, while the basis mostly remained unchanged at around -1310, causing FOB prices to correct by approximately -7 to -10 points for various positions. CNF India saw offers around $985 in the morning, and although we haven't heard of any trades, it seems that we may see some spot cargo transactions at current levels. Bean oil is currently acting as the price ceiling, while sunflower oil continues to provide support as a price floor for soft oil commodities. As previously mentioned, bean oil prices touching $950 are becoming an attractive buy for spot purchases. If prices dip below $950, consider long positions between $880 and $930, even for forward months. Resistance for CNF India is expected around the $1100 mark. Price volatility is likely to persist due to macroeconomic factors, and we advise traders to exercise caution and avoid short positions. We anticipate that the USDA report scheduled for Thursday will include US soybean export sales for 2023-24, with a projected excess of 1.3 million metric tons, and for 2024-2025, an estimate of about 50,000-60,000 metric tons. Notably, there have been reports of exporters selling over 130,000 metric tons of beans to China, which could bolster bullish sentiment.

Ukraine sunflower oil sellers continue to hold onto their aggressive selling stance, with pricing ideas for India hovering around $940. Spain and Italy are also being offered at $935-930, while Turkey has seen offers at approximately $870. Although the conflict in Ukraine has not significantly impacted agricultural production, escalating tensions in the Israel-Palestine conflict could lead to logistical challenges. Both Ukraine and Russia have halted shipments of unsold cargos, creating some equilibrium in the sunflower oil trade with India. Ready cargo is now in short supply, and only January shipments are currently available. Local trades in Chennai have been reported at INR 85,000, with JNPT also seeing small-volume trades around INR 85,000. We recommend that importers maintain a long position for spot cargo, as festive demand is expected to be high. However, we advise caution regarding pricing forwards at this time. The established range for sunflower oil CNF India is around $830 at the lower end and potentially up to $1000 at the upper end.

  • Argentina SBO
  • Nov 23 -1310/-1390
  • Dec 23 -1310/-1390
  • JF/24 -1180/-1350
  • Mch/24 -1400/-1600
  • MJJ/24 -1420/-1650
  • Brazil SBO
  • Nov -1250/-1400
  • Dec -1350/-1400
  • Jan/24 –/-1450
  • Mch/24 -1400/-1600
  • AM 24 -1420/-1620
  • 6 ports Europe Dec $930 vs $900
  • JFM $930 vs $900
  • AMJ $940 vs $905
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jan 3832 (+22)
  • H 3842 / L 3793
  • Vol :  22,195
  • Oln  
  • Nov 830 vs 822.5
  • Dec 842.5 vs 
  • Jfm 855 vs 850 
  • Amj 855 vs 850
  • Jas 842.5 vs 837.5
  • Ond 842.5 vs 835
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Nov 790 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Nov 772.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Oct 3800 
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Oct 230 (pk) / 232 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Oct/Nov 900
  • Rbdpkoln: Oct/Nov 850
  • Rbdpks : Oct/Nov 1010
  • Sbo :  
  • Oct 5486 (unch)
  • Dec 5403 (-5)
  • Jan 5347 (-6)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil indicative USD 800 vs —
  • Russian FOB sunflower oil indicative USD 790 vs —
  • Spain indicated for ND at USD 935 vs —
  • Italy indicated for ND at USD 930 vs —
  • CIF India for pricing only no  new offers for ND at USD 940 vs —
  • Turkey mersin is indicated for ND at USD 875 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.23, RM 4.76, Rub 97.44 and Euro 1.0532


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz

  1430 08072024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ MONDAY HBDAARI Palm Oil Market : The palm oil market is very slow today in India as MDEX is closed and traders are not getting any direction. Such days are important as most of the consolidation happens during a holiday, followed by short covering on the opening day. Our view remains unchanged: as the market progresses towards RM 4150 and above, we advise our traders to start making small shorts, increasing them once we test RM 4450, while buying during corrections towards RM 3750. Production is decreasing, India is entering the festive season, and demand for edible vegetable oil is increasing, which will provide enough support. Bearish traders are looking at crude oil prices, hoping that softer crude could put pressure on vegetable oil, but we expect crude to remain stable and slowly inch higher towards 100 by the end of this year when the requirement for heating oil increases. In India, offers are mostly unchanged from Friday, and there are n...
Read more

ATHENA MARKET BUZZ

1600 10062024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ MONDAY Good Morning, Congratulations to Team India for their victory against Pakistan in the ICC T-20 World Cup, and to the people of India for reelecting Shri Narendra Modi as Prime Minister. MDEX opened lower, and by lunchtime, August settled at RM 3952, down 23 points. At the time of writing, August has further declined to RM 3926, down 49 points. With it being Monday, we expect the slow trade to continue, overlooking the weakness in bean oil and increased stock figures. MPOB data shows opening stocks at 1.74 million MT, with production up by 13.48% and end stocks up by 0.5%. Despite the good discount of palm oil over other soft oils, traders expected higher export numbers, leading to the sell-off. The pace of export is good, and we can expect stock reduction by the end of the month, which will adjust the market higher. The RSI in MDEX is just over 50%, keeping the view mostly neutral, and we can expect some more selling pressure as the day progresses....
Read more