Athena Market Buzz

1200 17102023 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday 


Good Morning,

Still a strong buy... The momentum remains strong as Mdex approaches RM 3808, making its way towards RM 3850 today. CBOT is also on a trajectory to touch 57.50, while Sunflower oil prices are steadily climbing towards the USD 950 mark.


Mdex had an uneventful opening but later shifted towards the positive side during the day. In particular, December settled for lunch at RM 3782, marking a 17-point increase, and January, after briefly touching RM 3808, settled at RM 3799 with a 19-point gain. Mdex is benefiting from a robust rebound in other oil markets, especially in sunflower oil and bean oil. Festive demand in India continues to show strength, and we anticipate selling pressure only when we breach the RM 3850 mark. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned positive and is now over 55%, indicating more potential upside in the current market. We advise long positions to consider liquidating in the RM 3850-4000 range, while short positions should wait for prices to surpass RM 4000, with an eye on a target of RM 4250. For short covering, consider buying between RM 3550-3450, and for long positions, it's prudent to wait for prices to range between RM 3450-3250. We don't anticipate Palm oil prices correcting below RM 3250 for the current season, at least until January/February. On the flip side, the upside potential is limited to RM 4250. In terms of CNF India offers, CPO was within the range of USD 885-900, while ROL was offered at a USD 15 discount.


CBOT bean oil received support from NOPA crush numbers, leading to a 152-point increase for December at 55.90 and a 140-point increase for January at 55.12. As previously mentioned, we are heading towards the 57.50 mark, where we may encounter some resistance, and basis could correct towards -1500. Currently, there are no signs of correction. Flat price bean oil is once again up by USD 20-30, depending on the position. CNF India offers were mostly above USD 1000 for OND. Degum is likely to face resistance around USD 1100, while support levels remain steady in the 930-950 range. We urge our readers not to short flat prices, as there is still room for a rally. Locally, degum soybean oil is approaching INR 900 duty paid, and there is already demand at INR 880 duty paid in Kandla. Beans in central India's market yards are trading at around 45,000/-, which is below the Minimum Support Price (MSP), though plant-delivered prices range from 46,500-47,500 depending on the location. Meal exports seem sluggish, which might cap bean prices, but oil prices should continue to rise, and we expect the local market to remain supported until the end of November 2023.

Sunflower oil in India is being offered at around USD 930, which is approximately USD 80 lower than bean oil. Consequently, we don't anticipate a correction at this stage. As mentioned earlier, we expect sunflower oil to encounter resistance only around USD 950, with the potential to reach highs of USD 1050 by January/February, while maintaining a strong bottom at around USD 860. Whenever CNF India prices dip below USD 900, they establish a lower bottom, reinforcing our view that even with a significant sunflower seed crop in Russia and Ukraine, we are unlikely to see prices correct below USD 820 CNF until at least March 2023. We strongly recommend considering long positions between USD 840-870 CNF India, even for forward months, but refrain from buying if prices surge beyond the USD 1000 mark. Spot oil availability is currently tight, with no new parcels on offer for October or the upcoming November. There are reports that Cargill sold some small volumes to Kandla at USD 905 yesterday, although we were unable to independently verify this information


  • SOYOIL Basis
  • ARGENTINA-
  • ND-1320/-1450(Fob Slr 941.36$/Byr 912.70)+29$
  • JF ?/-1350
  • Mar-1400/-1650(893.30/838.19)+16
  • BRAZIL-
  • Nov ?/-1400(?/923.73)
  • Dec-1330/?(939.16/?)+16
  • JF No Slr/-1420
  • Mar-1400/-1650(893.30/838.19)
  • 6 ports Europe SFO
  • ND    $930 vs $890
  • JFM  $930 vs $890
  • AMJ  $945 vs $900
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jan 3799 (+19)
  • H 3808 / L 3770
  • Vol :  32,133
  • Oln  
  • Nov 835 vs
  • Dec 835 vs   
  • Jfm 852.5 vs 845 
  • Amj 852.5 vs 845
  • Jas 837.5 vs 830 
  • Ond 837.5 vs 827.5
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Nov 782.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Nov 762.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Oct 3760 
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Oct 226 (pk) / 226 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Oct/Nov 880
  • Rbdpkoln: Oct/Nov 840
  • Rbdpks : Oct/Nov 1000
  • Sbo :  
  • Oct 5596 (+6)
  • Dec 5516 (+4)
  • Jan 5462 (+10)
  • Dce :  
  • Jan 7328 (+4)
  • May 7376 (+40)
  • Rm 4.732
  • Crude : 86.53
  • Black Sea sunflower oil indicative FOB ND 790 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil indicative FOB ND 785 vs —
  • Spain indicated for ND 910 vs —
  • Italy indicated for ND 905 vs —
  • CNF India indicative offers for ND 930 vs 900
  • Turkey indicated for ND Ukraine origin USD 850 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.25, RM 4.73, Rub 97.41 and Euro 1.0546

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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