Athena Market Buzz

1330 10102023 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday 



Good Afternoon,


Mdex began the day on a lower note, and by lunchtime, the December contract had settled at RM 3567, down by -38 points. At the time of writing this report, it is trading at RM 3583, down by -22 points. Our previously suggested target for MDEX, where we advised our readers to consider long positions between RM 3550-3450, has now been reached. Currently, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is hovering around 36%, indicating the potential for further downward movement.


We recommend that our readers start accumulating partial long positions and consider increasing them as the market descends, with the bottom potentially reaching RM 3250. Today, we anticipate the markets turning positive, as export inspection agencies are reporting higher exports for the period from 1st to 10th October compared to the same period in September. CPO prices offered to India are USD 845 for October and USD 850 for November, which is only USD 5 higher than Refined, Bleached, and Deodorized (ROL) offers. At this spread, India is likely to prefer CPO over ROL. Sunflower oil prices have stabilized around USD 890-900, providing support to CPO prices. The recent spike in crude oil due to the Israel-Hamas conflict has raised hopes for increased palm oil consumption. We strongly advise our readers not to adopt a bearish stance at this point and to continue accumulating cargo for short covering. When prices correct below RM 3500, consider making long positions. These are currently attractive prices, and it would require courage from sellers to create short positions here, potentially further dampening market sentiments. However, if someone chooses to make long positions, the downside appears limited.


CBOT bean oil settled lower, with December down by -142 points at 53.93, and January down by -133 points at 53.26. This decline is attributed to geopolitical concerns in the energy market related to the Israel-Hamas conflict, the rapid pace of the harvest in the USA, and the narrowing premium of soybean oil over sunflower oil. Interestingly, the basis has adjusted to -1400 from -1500, with minimal impact on flat price offers. Degummed soybean oil to India is still being offered around USD 935. In contrast, sunflower oil is now offered at USD 895-890, resulting in a spread of just about USD 40. This difference is roughly equivalent to the variation in refining charges for both commodities. India should reconsider purchasing more degummed soybean oil, potentially shifting back from sunflower oil. A recent soybean seed conference held in Indore by SOPA discussed crop size and price expectations. While most traders were not overly bullish, they also saw limited downside potential, given that soybeans are already trading at INR 46,000 per ton, the minimum support price set by the government. The downside in soybean prices could be around USD 50, potentially driven by the need to export soybean meal, while oil prices are expected to remain within their current trading range for the next six months. Overall, India estimates a total soybean crop of 11.8 million metric tons, with Madhya Pradesh being the top producer. The crop is slightly smaller than last year, and India is still expected to import over 250,000 metric tons of soybean oil on a monthly basis.


Black Sea Ukraine was relatively quiet recently following Iran's ban on imports of soybean oil and sunflower oil. This situation may result in a search for alternative destinations for the 40-50k metric tons of Russian sunflower oil originally destined for Iran. Overall, sunflower oil prices have stabilized, with offers for India at USD 890-895 CIF, only slightly lower than soybean oil offers. This temporary stability may reduce shipments to India, with October shipments expected to remain around USD 250-275k. Ukraine offered sunflower oil to Mersin at USD 845, while buyers were at USD 825. Spain indicated prices at USD 890 versus buyer offers at USD 860. In India, there is strong buying support at USD 860-865. On the winter rapeseed front, Ukrainian farmers have sowed 92% of the expected 1.11 million hectares, with harvesting expected after February 2024. In terms of grains, Ukraine has returned to exporting 800,000 metric tons, which was typical during the early days of the grain corridor. More ships are now willing to go to Ukraine, and we've seen a decrease in war risk premiums. We continue to recommend to our readers not to be overly concerned and to consider making long positions in sunflower oil for forward months if prices breach USD 850, and even for spot oil at current offers.


  • Argentina SBO
  • Oct 23 -1400/-1450
  • ND 23 -1400/-1450
  • JF 24 –/-1400
  • MJJ 24 –/-1700
  • Brazil SBO
  • Nov 23 –/-1520
  • Dec 23 –/-1500
  • JF 24 –/-1550
  • Mar 24 –/-1650
  • AM 24 –/-1670
  • 6  ports Europe OND 905 vs -
  • JFM 920 vs -
  • AMJ 930 vs -
  • Palm oil Market Close (Pre MPOB)
  • Bmd : Dec 3567 (-38)
  • H 3636 / L 3520
  • Vol :  34,099
  • Oln  
  • ND 802.5 vs  
  • Jfm 815 vs 810
  • Amj 822.5 vs 817.5 
  • Jas 807.5 vs  802.5
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Nov 755 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Nov 750 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Oct 3600
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Oct 222 (pk) / 222 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Oct 875
  • Rbdpkoln: Oct 835
  • Rbdpks : Oct 995
  • Sbo :  
  • Oct 5613 (unch)
  • Dec 5346 (-47)
  • Jan 5280 (-46)
  • Dce :  
  • Jan 7032 (-152)
  • May 7068 (-154)
  • Rm 4.733
  • Crude : 85.84
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB ND 750vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FON indicatively 745 vs —
  • Spain indicated for ND USD 885 vs —
  • Italy indicated for ND  USD 880 vs —
  • CIF LW India indicated at USD 900 to do 890 vs 860
  • Turkey mersin was indicated at USD 840 vs nib
  • Currency INR 83.25, RM 4.73, Rub 98.85 and Euro 1.0559

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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