Athena Market Buzz

1320 05102023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday 


Good Afternoon,

Mdex has consistently remained below RM 3750 for two consecutive days, reaffirming our bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also remains below 50%, which suggests a continuing presence of sellers in the market. As of lunchtime today, the December contract was already trading at RM 3662-53, and at the time of writing this report, it largely remains at the same level. We anticipate that Palm oil prices will gradually decline below RM 3550 towards RM 3450, presenting an excellent buying opportunity. We recommend our readers consider long positions in both Crude Palm Oil (CPO) and Refined, Bleached, and Deodorized (ROL) palm oil.

CNF India offers for CPO in the morning were at USD 860, while ROL was offered at USD 845. These prices are indicative, and actual trades are occurring at lower levels. As previously mentioned, we had noted that below RM 3750, the downside potential was approximately 5%, and we would be tempted to initiate long positions. However, we will wait for prices to approach RM 3565 before considering long positions. It's worth noting that the support level around RM 3662, where prices have bounced a few times, may hold for today, leading to some consolidation. Still, without significant demand from major markets, these levels are unlikely to be sustained for long. Any upward movement from current levels towards RM 3750 should be seen as an opportunity to exit long positions. For short positions, we reiterate that traders should wait for prices to exceed RM 4000. In September, India imported approximately 700,000 metric tons of Palm and Laurics, a trend it aims to continue into October.

Degummed Soybean oil corrected once again yesterday, with December settling at -114 points at 55.99 and January at -103 points at 55.28. As previously mentioned, we are confident that the market will touch 54.50, with the basis remaining at -1500 or even lower. The flat price of bean oil is expected to correct to CNF India around USD 950, where strong support is likely. Despite this correction, Degum soybean oil is still being traded for port-based refiners, with around 300,000 metric tons imported to India in September 2023, though slightly less than Sunflower oil. Morning offers for Degum to India were at USD 965-970, and with today's correction, we anticipate seeing our target price of USD 950 on the offer. CBOT prices are already lower, with December now offered at 55.40-59, while January is at 54.70-58. December should correct slightly more to find support at 54.50, and January may find support only at 52.50. We expect to see improvements mainly in basis, with CBOT remaining in a tight range, providing much-needed trade stability.

India is importing sunflower oil in higher volumes, with September arrivals totaling 306,000 metric tons. We anticipate October arrivals to decrease slightly to around 250,000 metric tons. Kakinada port continues to be the top choice for imports, highlighting that as long as sunflower oil maintains its price advantage over soybean oil, it will be used as a replacement. The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, along with infrastructure damage, is driving buyers to consider alternative sources. This winter could bring logistical challenges, so we recommend our readers maintain their spot positions and keep their supply chains well-stocked. Sunflower oil from Argentina and Russian origins has been trading between USD 895 and USD 905, with Ukraine origin still offered at USD 910. However, today, offers for Russian origin are already at USD 900 and even USD 890, as buyers, affected by recent crude oil losses, CBOT corrections, and declining Palm prices, wait for further price reductions. To reiterate, current levels are favorable for establishing spot or one-month forward long positions, but if prices drop below USD 850, it may be an opportune time to consider long positions for far-forward months.


  • Argentina SBO
  • Oct 23 -1530/-1600
  • ND 23 -1520/-1600
  • JF 24 –/-1550
  • Mar 24 -1500/-1720
  • MJJ 24 -1550/-1750
  • Brazil SBO
  • Nov 23 -1530/-1650
  • Dec 23 -1500/-1600
  • Jan 24 –/-1580
  • Feb 24 –/-1650
  • Mar 24 -1500/-1680
  • AM 24 -1520/-1720
  • 6 ports Europe OND 910/880
  • JFM 920/890
  • AMJ 940/905
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Dec 3662 (-53)
  • H 3710 / L 3651
  • Vol :  27,219
  • Oln  
  • Oct 815 vs 
  • ND 822.5 vs trd 817.5 
  • Jfm 840 vs 832.5 trd 840
  • Amj 850 vs 840
  • Jas 840 vs 830
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Oct 760 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Oct 752.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Oct 3650
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Oct 226 (pk) / 229 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Oct 885
  • Rbdpkoln: Oct 845
  • Rbdpks : Oct 1005
  • Sbo :  
  • Oct 5858 (+15)
  • Dec 5594 (-5)
  • Jan 5520 (-8)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil Fob indications 760 vs -
  • Russian Sunflower oil FOB indications USD 750 vs —
  • Spain indicated for ON at 905 vs —
  • Italy indicated a]for ON at 900 vs —
  • CIF India indicated for October shipment at USD 900 vs 880
  • Turkey indicated for mersin spot at USD 850 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.24, RM 4.72, Rub 99.50 and Euro 1.0515

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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