Athena Buzz

1230 16102023 Athena Market Buzz Monday



The festive season in India has begun with a flurry of activity, witnessing a surge in the markets. Adding to the excitement, India's triumph over Pakistan in the World Cup cricket match, maintaining an impressive 8:0 record, has further amplified the celebratory spirit. The Mdex is steadily sailing towards RM 3850, while CBOT, supported by a favorable basis, is anticipated to trade over RM 54.50 and gradually move towards 57.50. Moreover, flat prices of sunflower oil are expected to find substantial backing at current levels, possibly rallying towards USD 950.

Mdex commenced the day with a slight uptick and traded within a restricted range before noon, finally settling at RM 3763+26 for December and RM 3780+21 for January. As predicted earlier, the market witnessed a significant 100-point surge on Friday, with the momentum carrying through to today. With the RSI showing a positive turn at 52%, the bullish activity is gaining momentum. Reiterating our stance, an immediate recovery towards RM 3850 is anticipated, and any price range above RM 3850 to RM 4000 should be considered for exiting long positions. We advise our readers to wait for prices to exceed RM 4250 to consider entering short positions, a chance that is likely to present itself. For long positions, it is advisable to adopt two critical levels: a) covering shorts between RM 3450-3550, and b) making further longs between RM 3450-3350, with robust support at RM 3250. While inventories and interest rates are projected to rise, along with the depreciation of currencies, this may cap the major bullish trend. However, given the positive GDP growth across economies, except Germany, robust food demand should continue to support prices staying over RM 3200 until March 2024.

Earlier today, the ROL to India was quoted at USD 867.50, and CPO at 882.50. Notably, there is a growing interest observed, particularly as other oils are mostly hovering over the USD 900 mark. While some consolidation is anticipated for Mdex today, we remain confident that prices will aim to touch RM 3812 immediately, with a potential break leading to selling pressure from long positions.

CBOT bean oil, following a bullish trend post USDA's recovery, concluded Friday's session with an increase of 101 points for December at 54.38 and 96 points for January at 53.72. The stable basis at -1300 contributed to pushing the flat price higher by an additional USD 20. FOB prices of bean oil are currently at approximately USD 910, with CNF India offers hovering around USD 990, higher than the indications for sunflower oil, which commenced at USD 910 today. While soybean oil may not attract purchases at current levels, no significant correction is anticipated. Local market beans are finding support primarily at MSP, leading us to expect prices to remain stable for an extended period. A potential rally in the local market could be triggered by a duty hike or a substantial depreciation of the rupee, although both scenarios seem unlikely. Consequently, Indian funds should consider focusing on long positions in products rather than beans. Notably, local offers for bean oil in India are improving, reaching INR 860-865 duty paid, which could marginally benefit beans. The festive season in India has spurred considerable demand for soft oils, with degum strongly supported at USD 900. We recommend making long positions between USD 930-900, with the upside potentially reaching USD 1050 by March 2024.

Ukraine's sunflower oil has witnessed support despite a good harvest, owing to a lack of farmer selling. This has effectively deterred aggressive sellers. In the Indian market, prices have now exceeded USD 910, with buyers targeting USD 880. Spain and Italy, on the other hand, indicated prices around USD 900 on Friday, with limited buyer activity. Ongoing conflicts between Russia and Ukraine have resulted in damage to port infrastructure, with total sunflower oil exports from Ukraine likely to be capped at around 400,000 metric tons. Russia, however, might continue to export slightly more, ensuring a well-supplied sunflower oil market. As previously noted, strong support for sunflower oil is observed at USD 850, while resistance is expected to persist above the USD 1000 mark. Long positions should be maintained below USD 900, and exits can be initiated once the USD 1000 mark is breached. Locally in India, we have observed a rebound from the lows of INR 78,500 to the last traded value on Friday at INR 82,500, with current offers standing at INR 83,500. Sunflower oil remains comparatively cheaper than soybean oil, with the latter's replacement cost at around INR 87,000, making CSFO cheaper by over USD 40 per metric ton. We reiterate that CSFO is still being sold at a disparity, and aggressive traders are keen on offering for forward months, making it advisable to consider purchasing at the ports of Kandla and Krishnapatnam.


  • *Argentina SBO*
  • Oct 23 -1300/-1350
  • Nov 23 -1300/-1340
  • Dec 23 -1300/-1330
  • Mar 24 -1350/-1550
  • MJJ 24 -1400/-1650
  • *Brazil SBO*
  • Oct 23 –/-1350
  • ND 23 -1300/-1350
  • MJJ 24 -1400/-1650
  • 6 ports Europe Fridays close and today indications sfo nov 920 v 885 n/d 920 v 885 jfm 925 v 890 and amj 930 v 900
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jan 3780 (+21)
  • H 3788 / L 3743
  • Vol :  29,290
  • Oln  
  • Nov 827.5 vs
  • Dec 827.5 vs   
  • Jfm 847.5 vs 840 
  • Amj 850 vs 842.5
  • Jas 835 vs 825 
  • Ond 835 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Nov 780 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Nov 760 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Oct 3740 
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Oct 226 (pk) / 226 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Oct/Nov 880
  • Rbdpkoln: Oct/Nov 840
  • Rbdpks : Oct/Nov 1000
  • Sbo :  
  • Oct 5473 (+35)
  • Dec 5406 (+34)
  • Jan 5362 (+34)
  • Dce :  
  • Jan 7328 (+134)
  • May 7336 (+116)
  • Rm 4.737
  • Crude : 87.69
  • Black Sea sunflower oil 770 vs 740
  • Russian sunflower oil indications FOB 760 vs —
  • Spain indications for ND at USD 905 vs 885
  • Italy indicated for ND at 900 vs 885
  • CNF  India indicated ND at 920 vs 885
  • Turkey indications for Ukraine sunflower oil near by is about 840 but forward we hear some sellers asking USD 820 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.23, RM 4.73, Rub 97.56 and Euro 1.0525

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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