Athena Buzz

1410 13102023 Athena Market Buzz Friday



Good Afternoon,

The buying opportunity continues to be favorable. As previously mentioned, MDEX is expected to rally back to RM 3850 before returning to our established range of RM 3450-3550. Once we cross RM 3800, we recommend focusing on long liquidation.

MDEX opened on a positive note, reaching RM 3684 +46 for December by lunchtime. At the time of writing this report, it is trading at RM 3710 +72. We anticipate the rally to persist, and today the market is expected to close at weekly highs. Over the past three days, we've seen a reversal in the trend, with no fresh lows made. Instead, we've been achieving daily new highs. The current palm market is supported by robust export figures, and with the support of the USDA, we anticipate shorts returning to cover more positions. In the morning, CPO was offered at around USD 880, and  ROL was offered at USD 870, with limited business observed. The technical Relative Strength Index (RSI) is improving but still below 50%, and we hope it will climb back up today, with more analysts and traders adopting a bullish stance. Currently, aggressive sellers have not been prevalent, and there's an increase in offer prices due to the brisk business in local Indian markets for other oils like sunflower oil and soybean oil.


CBOT bean oil, after a very supportive USDA report, settled higher, with December up 65 at 53.37 and January up 66 at 52.76. The basis also strengthened, leading to a notable increase in flat prices, with offers for DSBO at CNF India around USD 970. We anticipated a bounce of about USD 20-25, but with bean oil also rallying by 100 points, we can expect flat prices to surge further. We had initially expected CBOT to find support, and we continue to recommend making long positions between 52.50-54.50. Surprisingly, the basis has firmed up, providing a much-needed boost to flat prices. Bean oil is now expected to recover toward 57.50, and the basis could at best remain at its current levels or possibly slide towards -1500, resulting in FOB prices of USD 935, which would translate to about USD 1000 CNF India. While the current FOB levels hover around USD 885-890, we still encourage our readers to initiate long positions.

Locally in India, oil is still available at a disparity, and it's encouraging to see more refiners taking advantage of this situation. We urge refiners to continue buying local oils until we see price parity. However, we recommend that soy seed stockists refrain from entering the market, as the return on investment might be lower than their interest costs, and instead, they should let the crushers utilize the beans.


Indications for Ukraine's sunflower oil have increased to USD 900 CIF India, while buyers are still looking to trade at USD 870-875. Spain is offered at around USD 885, Italy at 880, and Turkey is still indicated at USD 845. FOB Black Sea is indicated at USD 740, and other port prices are not specified at the moment. With crude oil prices potentially trading above 100, overall freight costs are likely to remain high, pushing destination prices higher. As mentioned earlier, the crop for Ukraine is still over 14.5 million, and Russia's crop exceeds 17 million, which will keep the rally in check. We anticipate resistance around USD 1100 CIF India, and on the flip side, it will be challenging for prices to drop below USD 820 CIF. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • Oct 23 -1290/-1350
  • Nov 23 -1280/-1340
  • Dec 23 -1280/-1330
  • Mar 24 -1350/-1550
  • MJJ 24 -1400/-1650
  • Brazil SBO
  • Oct 23 –/-1350
  • ND 23 -1250/-1350
  • MJJ 24 -1400/-1650
  • 6 ports ND 910 v 860 
  • JFM 910 v 860 
  • AMJ 920 v 865
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Dec 3684 (+46)
  • H 3709 / L 3613
  • Vol :  25,882
  • Oln  
  • Nov 820 vs 
  • Dec 825 vs  
  • Jfm 837.5 vs 830 
  • Amj 840 vs 832.5
  • Jas 825 vs 817.5 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Nov 772.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Nov 752.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Oct 3680 
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Oct 225 (pk) / 225 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Oct/Nov 880
  • Rbdpkoln: Oct/Nov 840
  • Rbdpks : Oct/Nov 1000
  • Sbo :  
  • Oct 5447 (unch)
  • Dec 5376 (+39)
  • Jan 5307 (+31)
  • Dce :  
  • Jan 7238 (+156)
  • May 7256 (+162)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB ND 740 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB ND 735 vs 00
  • Spain indicated ND at USD 885 vs 860
  • Italy indicated ND at USD 880 vs 850
  • CIF India ukraine origin indicated at USD 900 vs 870 , Russian usd 10 lower
  • Turkey indicated around USD 845 vs —
  • Currency INR 83.23, Euro 1.0549, Rub 97.64, and RM 4.73

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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