Athena Buzz

1330 12102023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday 



Good Afternoon,

Yes, it's a buying opportunity for MDEX, flat price Sunflower oil, and perhaps a bit of soybean oil hinterland. However, it's advisable to stay away from beans and consider investing in other commodities.

A rebound to RM 3850 is in the cards for MDEX in December. We recently tested the lows, touching RM 3547 briefly, only to recover slightly. The market opened unchanged, and at lunchtime, December was trading at RM 3572, up by 21 points. At the time of writing this report, it's up by 1.8% at RM 3615, a gain of 64 points. We anticipate a recovery in the current market, which should face resistance around RM 3850 before likely returning to the range of RM 3450-3550.

We reiterate that one should not hesitate to enter long positions in the range of RM 3550-3450 but should be ready to sell these longs once prices cross RM 3750. Macroeconomic factors are likely to prevent a strong rally in prices, and solid demand at lower levels from India and China will keep MDEX prices well-supported at RM 3450, with long-term support at RM 3250.

The ROL prices to India were offered at around USD 840, and CPO was indicated at USD 850. Most oils, including crude sunflower oil, are trading in a range with little room left for correction. However, for ROL, we may expect support only around the USD 800 mark. Hence, for flat prices, one can wait a bit or take advantage of occasional low offers. Locally in India, ROL prices have fallen below the INR 800 mark at every port, exerting pressure on already high soybean oil prices.


CBOT bean oil settled marginally lower, with December down by -51 points at 52.72 and January down by -52 points at 52.10. Basis is improving, with sellers now only at -1300. The recovery in basis has been remarkable but has exceeded our expectations. The global supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and there's no pressing need for further correction in CBOT, which may maintain the basis at around -1400-1500.

For CNF India, offers for bean oil were around USD 930-925, which is about USD 50 higher than sunflower oil and approximately USD 100 higher than palm oil. However, with the current landed prices and disparity in the local market, there's immense pressure on domestic seed prices. It's advisable not to make long positions in seeds this year, given the good crop and the availability of seeds throughout the year. With limited options for meal exports and the availability of cheap edible oil imports with zero duty, crushing soybean seeds or hoarding them doesn't make sense. The USDA is expected to be bullish, but with CBOT beans and oil already down, we can anticipate further downward pressure once the report is released, making the market more appealing for long positions. We suggest making long positions in bean oil around the USD 900 mark or INR 80,000 with duty paid at the port, as the downside risk appears very limited.


The sunflower seed harvest in Ukraine and Russia is nearly complete, and the sowing of winter rapeseed crops is also finished. We can anticipate a sunseed production of over 14 million metric tons in Ukraine, and the Russian crop is in line with our expectations of around 17 million metric tons.

Indications for Black Sea sunflower oil for India are approaching our target prices of USD 860, although we've seen several trades between USD 880-870, and rightfully so. Catching the absolute bottom will be challenging, and with each correction, it's advisable to incrementally add to long positions. We anticipate prices for January to March (JFM) to trade back above USD 960, which is the time to consider making forward long positions.

Current levels are not conducive for short positions and selling at disparity is also not recommended. We strongly encourage refiners in India to purchase all available disparity oil and manage their inventories to maintain a well-managed supply chain. Spain and Italy are also seeing offers around USD 860, and in Turkey, indications are around USD 820, with buyers aiming for prices around 800.

  • Argentina SBO
  • Oct 23 -1310/-1350
  • Nov 23 -1310/-1340
  • Dec 23 -1300/-1340
  • JF 24 -1150/-1300
  • Mar 24 -1350/-1600
  • MJJ 24 -1390/-1650
  • Brazil SBO
  • Nov 23 –/-1400
  • Dec 23 -1310/-1380
  • Jan 24 –/-1400
  • MJJ 24 –/-1400
  • 6 ports Europe nov/dec 900 v 860, jfm 900 v 860 amj 910 v 865
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Dec 3572 (+21)
  • H 3600 / L 3539
  • Vol :  37,533
  • Oln  
  • Nov 800 vs 
  • Dec 805 vs  
  • Jfm 812.5 vs 805 
  • Amj 817.5 vs 810 
  • Jas 810 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Nov 757.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Nov 752.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Oct 3600
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Oct 223 (pk) / 223 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Oct/Nov 885
  • Rbdpkoln: Oct/Nov 835
  • Rbdpks : Oct/Nov 1010
  • Sbo :  
  • Oct 5216 (-136)
  • Dec 5218 (-54)
  • Jan 5168 (-42)
  • Dce :  
  • Jan 7112 (+26)
  • May 7110 (-6)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB indications for ND 720 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB indicatively USD 720 vs —
  • Spain indications for ND at USD 865 vs 850
  • Italy indicated for ND at USD 860 vs —
  • CIF LW India indications at USD 885 vs 865 buyers
  • Turkey mersin indicated at USD 820 vs 800
  • Currency Rub 96.63, RM 4.717, INR 83.11 and Euro 1.0635

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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