Athena Buzz


1320 03102023 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday 



Good Afternoon,

We've returned from the conference, and it seems that the mood among participants was marked by gloom and uncertainty. Even the speakers expressed their uncertainty, with many ifs and buts in their discussions. China is currently observing an extended holiday period, and India is showing a preference for sunflower oil over other oils, which is likely to keep palm oil's rally in check.

In terms of market developments, MDEX experienced a dip to lows of 3684 for December but has since rebounded, currently trading at RM 3736, up by 32 points. Palm oil did show a weekly gain, and we anticipate it to remain range-bound this week. As previously mentioned, we expect MDEX to gradually drift towards RM 3450, and it would be wise for market participants to consider long positions between RM 3550 and RM 3450. Liquidation of long positions is advisable when the market crosses RM 3850-3950. We reiterate that levels of RM 4250 and higher will provide excellent opportunities for short positions. Until then, selling should primarily serve as a hedge for long positions.

The export data for September is favorable, with exports increasing by approximately 8%. This is expected to provide support to palm oil prices. However, if palm oil manages to close below RM 3750 for two consecutive sessions, we may expect a further drift towards RM 3450. Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50%, suggesting more downside potential for the market. Fundamentally, prices of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) and Refined, Bleached, and Deodorized (ROL) CNF India are in competition with sunflower oil. Today, indicative offers for ROL were USD 855, compared to USD 905 for sunflower oil. The landed cost of ROL is approximately INR 83,000, while trades are happening around INR 800-810 for nearby positions.

CBOT soybean oil has finally started correcting. On Friday, December settled at 55.83, down by 108 points, and January at 55.22, down by 119 points. However, it recovered somewhat yesterday, with December up by 160 points at 57.43 and January up by 146 points at 56.68. As previously mentioned, the levels around 54.50 appear to be strong support, and the basis around -1500 should also find considerable support. While some technical buying can be expected at current levels, a major rally is not anticipated. Bean oil CIF India has once again crossed the USD 1000 mark, making it the most expensive oil available. Disparities in local markets have widened, and with the arrival of the Indian crop, local oil consumption is likely to increase. The INR landed cost of Deodorized Soybean Oil (DSBO) is approximately INR 92,500, while Crude Soybean Oil (CSFO) is nearly INR 10,000 lower, making it the preferred choice. Soybean oil flat prices are expected to correct further, and if the board rises, the basis is likely to break again. It may be time for traders to set prices for their CBOT contracts and wait for pricing basis. Overall, the market is expected to find support at USD 900-950 CNF India. If adverse weather continues to affect production, the physical market may tighten, leading to an improved basis and CBOT correction. Therefore, those considering long positions at the current flat price are advised to wait until prices approach or drop below the USD 950 mark.

Ukraine sunflower oil has stabilized somewhat at current levels, with CIF India offers ranging around USD 900-910. Most market participants are still looking for prices below USD 850 before making significant long positions. In Turkey, sellers of Ukraine sunflower oil have indicated a price of USD 850, while buyers are seeking to pay USD 825. In Europe, offers mostly fall in the range of USD 890-900, with buyers around USD 880. Despite sunflower oil being the cheapest among soft oils, Indian buyers are cautious due to concerns about a large crop and aggressive selling from Russia and Ukraine. We reiterate that there is a strong possibility for Degummed soybean oil (DSBO) to trade around USD 950, and by then, sunflower oil is expected to drift back to USD 850. We recommend our readers consider long positions in the range of USD 830-860 CIFLW India.


  • *Argentina SBO*
  • Oct 23 -1480/-1640
  • ND 23 -1450/-1640
  • MJJ 24 -1550/-1730
  • *Brazil SBO*
  • Oct 23 -1500/–
  • Nov 23 -1500/-1620
  • Dec 23 -1450/-1600
  • AM 24 -1550/-1750
  • JJ 24 -1550/-1780
  • 6 ports Europe *SFO*
  • OND 900 vs 880
  • JFM 920 vs 895
  • AMJ 935 vs 910
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Dec 3735 (+31)
  • H 3762 / L 3693
  • Vol :  21,429
  • Oln  
  • Oct 827.5 vs  
  • Nd 837.5 vs
  • Jfm 855 vs 847.5
  • Amj 860 vs 855
  • Jas 855 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Oct 770 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Oct 765 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Oct 3700
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Oct 230 (pk) / 230 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Oct 895
  • Rbdpkoln: Oct 855
  • Rbdpks : Oct 1015
  • Sbo :  
  • Oct 5975 (-10)
  • Dec 5771 (+28)
  • Jan 5686 (+18)
  • Dce :  closed
  • Rm 4.724
  • Crude : 88.17
  • Black Sea sunflower oil 770 vs 730 may pay 750 FOB Reni, Izmail. 
  • Russian sunflower oil indications only USD 760 vs —
  • Spain indicated for ON at 900 vs 880
  • Italy indicated for ON at USD 895 vs —
  • CIF LW India indications for ON 915 vs 885
  • Turkey indicated for ON 870 vs 840
  • Currency INR 83.20, RM 4.72, Rub 98.95 and Euro 1.0477

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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