Athena Market Buzz

 1530 07092023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday 


Good Afternoon,


Its interesting to see the markets behaving exactly as one would have thought, MDEX opened lowed and by lunch we were marginally down which at the time of writing this report is trading about 1% lower at RM 3835 -46. MDEX clearly is consolidating and we can see that the lowest point could be just about 5% lower from here around RM 3650. For short term investors if the market corrects another 2% they can start making longs and for long term investors one can wait for prices to touch RM 3650 and scale up buying as price dip lower. The consumption in India is getting better and India will continue to import large volumes of edible oil, China too will recover and thus our support till Dec 2023 at RM 3450 will remain well protected. On the up side all the rallies over RM 4000 will meet resistance first by profit taking once it crosses RM 4250 it will face resistance from short sellers. CPO prices to India are indicted around USD 895-900 and ROL prices for SO are between USD 865-875 , locally though ROL is trading at Chennai at INR 830 with further sellers which we feel should be used to make longs. Production of Palm is increasing by over 11% for month of month basis but on annual basis the jump could be just about 2% which is compensated by increased consumption at various destinations. Over all we should see pace of exports increasing as we trade lower levels and thus reducing the stock burden. 


CBOT bean oil is the most complex commodity at the moment, with Board settling lower -48 for oct at 63.78 and -43 for Dec at 62.67 room for more correction can’t be ruled out. With current EPA mandate we can expect the CBOT to start correcting towards 54.50 in October but with lesser beans avaialbilty and crush we could see basis improving pushing flat price only slightly lower. CNF India the offers for bean oil are already below USD 1000 and most positions till Dec are around USD 990. We are expecting a price correction of around 10% max keeping the price in firm band of USD 900-1000. We don’t expect bean oil to trade much lower and one can stop worrying here. Soybean oil is already a good buy now and the corrections will also see short rallies. We are suggesting our readers to maintain longs by sourcing the disparity oil available in India and if the USD replacement happens jump and cover that too. India in any case will need to import around 250,000 mt of soybean oil on monthly basis even if its about USD 100 costlier to sunflower oil which means current INR prices of 82,500/- will mostly find support at INR 80,000/- and we should not see panic. With huge disparity the imports for bean oil are low and the core demand of 250,000 mt will first eliminate the disparity and they we can expect some rally as well. 


Black Sea sunflower oil crops are more or less finalised and we don’t see any availability issue either from Russia or from Ukraine, unless we see escalation of war and a possible attack on the ships. Sunflower oil will continue to trade USD 50-100 lower from soybean oil and we can’t expect a premium till the war gets over. There is enough sunflower oil but limited exportable capability making markets always under pressure to export and destination always will have enough offers. Having said this we are not too bearish in sunflower oil. Though the availability will be more and so will be the consumption. India is waiting for prices to correct below USD 900 to enter and so far the offers for sunflower oil are holding around USD 920-930 mark. A correction of USD 50/- and India will try to cover their OND requirements being about 1 million to 800,000 MT of demand globally. This could temporary support the falling prices hence we suggest our readers to watch the developments in Russia and also watch monthly shipments to India as they have the potential to increase to upwards of 350,000 mt. 



  • *Argentina SBO*
  • Sep -2160V/ -2280V 
  • Oct -2010/ -2280
  • ND -2010/-2070
  • JF/24 -/-2060
  • MJJ/24 -1900/-2100
  • *Brazil SBO*
  • Oct -2150/-2350
  • ND -1950/ -2250
  • JF/24 -/2150
  • 6 port Europe
  • Sept $930 vs $890
  • OND $930 vs $890
  • JFM  $945 vs $920
  • AMJ  $965 vs $930
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Nov 3845 (-36)
  • H 3904 / L 3825
  • Vol :  22,242
  • Oln  
  • Sep 852.5 vs
  • Oct 857.5 vs 
  • Ond 867.5 vs  
  • Jfm 895 vs 885 
  • Amj 895 vs 885
  • Jas 885 vs 870
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Oct 782.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Oct 782.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Sept 3800
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Sep 242 (pk) / 244 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Sep 975
  • Rbdpkoln: Sep 930
  • Rbdpks : Sep 1095
  • Sbo :  
  • Sep 6535 (unch)
  • Oct 6358 (-20)
  • Dec 6219 (-19)
  • Dce : 
  • Jan 7582 (-162)
  • May 7544 (-146)
  • Rm 4.674
  • Crude : 87.26
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB ON 
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB ON
  • Spain offered ON 930 vs —
  • Italy offered ON 925 vs —
  • CIF India Indicated for ON at USD 930 vs 900
  • Turkey indicated ON 850 vs 835 mersin
  • Currency INR 83.17, RM 4.677, Euro 1.07 and Rub 98.20

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 



Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

AthenaBUzz

1530 14092023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday  Good Afternoon, India imported over 295,000 mt of sunflower oil in the month of Aug and we expect that the imports for Sept will be in excess of 250,000 MT again pushing the 6 monthly imports to around 1.7 million MT. These are high numbers and it appears that the demand for sunflower oil will continue to rise with the current discounts and in next 6 months India may end up importing another 2 million MT of sunflower oil making yearly total to 3.5 Million MT for April 2023-March 2024. The excess oil is basically imported by  Kandla based traders who do not won Refinary and cumulatively this is about 300,000 mt. in past 5 months. Ukraine sunflower oil is getting aggressively offered to India at USD 865/870 , CIF Marmara we heard trades at USD 775 and Mersin traded at USD 780 today the offers are about USD 10 higher but we expect the same prices to trade again. India too bought some volume about 18,000 mt in east coast at USD 860 with f...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz Friday

1400 27012023 Athena Market Buzz Friday  Mdex opened firm and as expected jump from 3750 is targeting RM 4000 on the upside where it may feel some more resistance. At lunch MDEX settled at RM 3857 +1.9% and at the time of writing this report is also trading around there only. Exports are slowly picking up and the loss of export will be lesser as we look at 1-31 Jan export numbers. We expect today the markets to remain firm and with some more strength coming in soft oils flat price we could attempt to touch RM 3900 today or early next week. Over all view is same  a maximum 10% downside risk around RM 3750 with a potential of 20% jump eventually. We would suggest our readers to make longs between RM 3450-3750 and sell it once we cross RM 4000 . Be ready to short the market once we cross RM 4250-4450.  CPO prices to India are maintained at USD 995-1005 and we expect it to find decent support here. Locally ROL is trading in India at 900 and we heard some business WCI already....
Read more