Athena Market Buzz

1500 12092023 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday 


Good Afternoon,


Brent is touching highs of 91, WTI is around 87.90 and this should be reason enough for traders to look at bio fuels seriously. Russia and other oil producing nations are looking to cut the production more which should be incentive for prices to find support. MDEX today opened positive and by lunch we are trading Nov at RM 3719+6 which at the time of writing this report was -.5% lower at RM 3698 -15. As mentioned before we expected a total of 5% correction from RM 3750 and below that price of RM 3550-3450 becomes are good long. CPO had seen lows at RM 3200 and that will be largely protected. We have seen most cases large stocks calls for higher prices and this year the lows mostly will be made in the month of Sept or early October and we should not see the same till Next March 2024. Currently we would not suggest longs to panic as the time to exit longs around RM 4000 is gone. We would request them to hold on to their positions and if we see a short rally over RM 3750 -3850 then exit longs however mostly we will see a correction towards RM 3550-3450 where we would suggest adding to longs with a stop loss at MR 3250. ROL to India was offered at USD 860 compared to CPO at USD 875. The spread between CPO and ROL has reduced to 15 from historic high of about 45 which puts dent to our bullish hopes as origins are trying to market CPO more aggressively. 


CBOT Bean oil settled marginally down for Oct at 61.34-12 and dec unchanged at 60.50 which at the time of writing this report is trading at 61.07 -27 for October and 60.14 -36 for Dec. Soybeans and Soybean oil is the most bullish commodity in veg oil complex. With reduced crush in Argentina, Lower crop in India and lesser shipments for bean oil towards other destinations we can expect basis to start recovering now. Basis which are trading at -2000 should be corrected back to -1500 or stronger but Board on other hand has the potential to drift first towards 57.50 and if the sentiments still don’t improve then to 54.50. we can expect a reasonable stability at 54.50 and one can start thinking of making longs in bean oil. From Indians perspective as can safely assume a USD 100 premium to bean oil over sunflower oil. Crushing in India will be a loss making proposition as imports of Oil are duty free and Seed is capped at MSP. More over with no avenues to make longs or shorts (no future exchange) speculators will stick to making long in beans thus putting pressure in crush margins. We still expect that prices of USD 900 CNF India to USD 950 will be interesting and Prices over USD 1100 will be used to make shorts. Beans India strangely will be lower this year and if there is no protection from Imports we can see it trading below MSP. 

Ukraine sunflower oil is trading mostly flat and prices are very slowly coming down. New crop numbers are high and so is the need to sell the cargo. We can’t be overly bullish in sunflower oil and this once again will keep the cap on rising prices. Globally the prices of most of the products will be influenced by sunflower oil and now we have seen the offers to India just below USD 900. This leaves the room for discussion open as to how low it can get. CIF India prices may trade below USD 850 and if we see soybean oil finding support at USD 900 -950 then sunflower oil will find support between USD 800-850. We would suggest our readers to monitor the development between Russian and Ukraine in order to safely keep spot cargoes long. If the tension increases only then make forward longs and till then use the local disparity oil and keep replacing the stocks. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • Sep -2060/ -2170 
  • Oct -2020/ -2150
  • ND -1860/-1980
  • MJJ/24 -1750/-2150
  • Brazil SBO
  • Oct -1900/-2100
  • ND -1850/ -2050
  • JF/24 -/-2050
  • Mch/24 -/-2200
  • AMJJ/24 -/-2150
  • 6 ports Europe Sept  $905 vs $865
  • OND  $900 vs $865
  • JFM   $915 vs $875
  • AMJ   $930 vs $885 
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Nov 3719 (+6)
  • H 3772 / L 3704
  • Vol :  31,758
  • Oln  
  • Sep 840 vs
  • Oct 840 vs 
  • Ond 850 vs 
  • Jfm 872.5 vs 867.5 trd 870
  • Amj 880 vs 872.5 trd 875
  • Jas 870 vs 860
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Oct 770 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Oct 770 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Sept 3700
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Sep 240 (pk) / 242 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Sep 960
  • Rbdpkoln: Sep 915
  • Rbdpks : Sep 1080
  • Sbo :  
  • Sep 6315 (unch)
  • Oct 6114 (-20)
  • Dec 6025 (-25)
  • Dce : 
  • Jan 7452 (-116)
  • May 7450 (-46)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 790 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 780 vs —
  • Spain indicated for ON at 890 vs —
  • Italy indicated for ON at 885 vs — 
  • CIF India indicated for ON at USD 890 vs 860 
  • Turkey Mersin indicated for ON at USD 845 vs —
  • Currency INR 82.93, RM 4.67, Rub 93.38 and Euro 1.0722.

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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