Athena Market Buzz

1530 05092023 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday 


Good Afternoon,


No demand , Sentiments poor, Huge inventories both at destination and origins , economic slowdown , bad weather  all are compounding to push the prices lower. MDEX opened over 1% down but recovered little to settle lunch for active month Nov at RM 3961 -25 which at the time of writing this report is already trading at days low of RM 3902 -84 or over 2%. CBOT was closed yesterday and thus there was no direction from soft oils. Malaysia is reportedly having large inventories nearing 2 million MT and this is causing concern on pace of exports. Palm is moving lower with CNF India offers around USD 890 we can see some more pressure.  MDEX above RM 4000 is not sustaining and we maintain our view that if we happen to touch Rm 4250 we should align ourselves with shorts and on other hand if we happen to touch RM 3450 it as price worth making long. We expect to see some more pressure in Palm but RM 3750 will be defended and it will be tough to break. We would suggest for short term once again a person can make longs around RM 3750 and sell the longs if we touch RM 4000 however for major positions one should wait for prices to correct below Rm 3550 and make longs between RM 3450-3550. 


CBOT was closed yesterday and is down by over 1.2% today in the electronic session but India as usual is trading at huge disparity. Bean oil which is offered around USD 1030 can be bought afloat at USD 1000 vis a vis local market which is trading at a disparity of over USD 110 PMT. Traders are competing in making highest loss in bean oil and with each day disparity is getting worse. On other hand the weather in India is also getting very dry and hot , which may result in loss or damage in standing bean crop. CBOT most likely will find support at 57.50 for dec month and we will see some more correction , however basis on other hand could remain here and it will push the flat price lower. We expected bean oil between USD 1000-1050 as good buy but it does not appear to find any support and today we will have to correct our target price little lower. Bean oil can slip lower towards USD 900 if the sunflower seed crop continue to improve and with Indian bad weather in sight we should fear price correction before we could find any support. Over all depressed markets will result in no buying in USD and INR too will depreciate to make import costly. We would suggest readers to wait and watch and stay away from making any longs at the moment.


Black Sea sunflower seed crop is looking better than expected. Crop numbers in Ukraine are expected to improve from previous estimates of 13.5 million to current 14.5 million MT. Russia too is booting of a normal crop increasing the probability of lower prices. OND India traded some volumes at USD 940-950 now the buyers are looking at about USD 900 levels. These prices are about USD 100 below bean oil but still are above local bean oil prices in India. Sunflower oil buying ideas should be around USD 850-900 now and any price over USD 1100 is worth making short. War is never ending and it will continue to push sellers to evacuate their produce. Turkey after trading some volumes between USD 870 is now again offered Mersin at USD 870 and buyers are here at USD 840. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • Sep -2050V/ -2150 
  • Oct -2050/ -2150
  • ND -1900/-2000
  • JF/24 -/-2000
  • Mch/24 -1700/-2100
  • MJJ/24 -1700/-
  • Brazil SBO
  • Oct -2000/-2200
  • ND -1900/ -2100
  • JF/24 -/2100
  • Mch/24 -1900/-2200
  • AM/24 -1850/ -2150
  • JJ/24 -1850/-2150
  • 6 ports Europe Sep $930 vs $890
  • OND $930 vs $890
  • JFM  $945 vs $915
  • AMJ  $965 vs $925
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Nov 3901 (-85)
  • H 3988 / L 3898
  • Vol :  54,026
  • Oln  
  • Sep 870 vs 
  • Oct 875 vs 
  • Ond 880 vs 875 trd 880
  • Jfm 900 vs 895 trd 900
  • Amj 902.5 vs 895
  • Jas 892.5 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Oct 805 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Oct 795 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Sept 3880
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Sep 243 (pk) / 245 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Sep 980
  • Rbdpkoln: Sep 935
  • Rbdpks : Sep 1100
  • Sbo :  
  • Sep 6600 (-55)
  • Oct 6401 (-74)
  • Dec 6247 (-82)
  • Dce : 
  • Jan 7716 (-110)
  • May 7668 (-120)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 800 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 790 vs —
  • Spain indicated for ON at USD 900 vs —
  • Italy indicated for ON at USD 895 vs —
  • CIF India indicate ON 945 vs 900
  • Turkey Mersin offered USD 870 vs 840
  • Currency INR 83.02, RM 4.66, Rub 97.20, and Euro 1.0747


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 


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