Athena Buzz

 1540 21092023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday 



Good Afternoon,


Palm oil is gradually heading towards RM 3450 for the December contract. It has reached a low of 3637 but is currently trading at RM 3650, down by 70 points at the time of composing this report. Palm oil prices are being influenced by other oils and are primarily driven by demand from India and China. However, India is currently sitting on ample stocks, and without a clear surge in demand, both sentiment and prices are experiencing a downward trend. As mentioned previously, Mdex is likely to move towards RM 3450, and we recommend that our readers consider long positions between RM 3550 and RM 3450. These levels are significant as we anticipate some consolidation, followed by increased demand from India for festivals and winter fuel.

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) and Refined, Bleached, and Deodorised (ROL) palm oil are trading at similar prices for India, offered at around USD 850. These price levels are also where we find other oils, particularly sunflower oil, leading us to anticipate further corrections. It's possible that ROL prices could correct to USD 820, as mentioned before, while support for Mdex remains at RM 3450.

CBOT soybean oil is undergoing the expected correction and is approximately 100 points away from the 57.50 mark for the active months of December or January. For December, bean oil settled at -109 points at 59.29, and for January, it settled at -93 points at 58.79 last night, with little change in basis. Flat price bean oil has started correcting due to pressure from Russian-origin bean oil. Offers for Degummed soybean oil to India were already at USD 980, contrasting with some Russian trades at USD 930. India is not currently purchasing this Degummed oil, and with high stocks and consistent corrections, we anticipate ongoing disparities in local markets. Trades are happening at distressing levels, which will further depress markets and sentiments. The first harvest of beans has begun to arrive at market yards, with reports of trades at INR 4000. These beans have high moisture content, and we expect prices to stabilise around this level, prompting farmers to either hold onto their produce or hope for at least the Minimum Support Price (MSP). Buyers in the Indian market should anticipate basis corrections towards -1500 but not more, with the board potentially settling at 54.50, making FOB prices fall below USD 900. CIF India prices between 900-950 may then become attractive, but until then, we suggest not panicking and waiting for a short rally to exit long positions.

Ukraine sunflower oil is holding its ground for now, although rumours of trades below USD 850 for December deliveries to Chennai are circulating. However, most sellers are asking for USD 870-880, with no bids in sight at those levels. Egypt has announced a tender, and sellers in the tender are offering a spread of about 140 in favour of sunflower oil. The costliest offer comes from Vitera at USD 997, while the cheapest is from TOI Commodities at USD 918. Trades are expected to fall within the range of USD 918-930, with a maximum volume of approximately 70k to 80k for sunflower oil. Egypt is likely to favour sunflower oil over soybean oil. Meanwhile, India is grappling with an influx of oil and aggressive sellers but a lack of buyers. Price corrections have started affecting the branded segment, and it's becoming increasingly challenging to maintain profit margins. India may consider purchasing more sunflower oil only if prices dip below USD 820, especially with the ongoing harvest. Buyers can exercise patience and explore opportunities to buy at levels around USD 800.



  • *Argentina SBO*
  • Oct 23 -1900/-2000
  • ND 23 -1750/-1870
  • Mch 23 –/-1950
  • MJJ/24 -1650/-1950
  • *Brazil SBO*
  • Sep 23 –/-2000
  • Oct 23 -1850/-2000
  • ND 23 -1650/-1870
  • MAM 24 –/-1980
  • 6 ports Europe 
  • *SFO*
  • Sept $885 vs $855
  • Oct      -     vs $855
  • OND $885 vs $855
  • JFM  $905 vs $865
  • AMJ  $925 vs $870
  • Palm oilMarket Close 
  • Bmd : Dec 3677 (-43)
  • H 3728 / L 3637
  • Vol :  83,525
  • Oln  
  • Oct 822.5 vs  
  • Ond 832.5 vs 
  • Jfm 847.5 vs 840
  • Amj 855 vs 845
  • Jas 847.5 vs 837.5
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Oct 770 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Oct 765 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Sept 3650
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Oct 232 (pk) / 233 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Oct 915
  • Rbdpkoln: Oct 875
  • Rbdpks : Oct 1035
  • Sbo :  
  • Oct 6022 (-46)
  • Dec 5882 (-47)
  • Jan 58347(-42)
  • Dce : 
  • Jan 7156 (-164)
  • May 7200 (-186)
  • Rm 4.689
  • Crude : 88.71
  • Black Sea sunflower oil though is very slow today but indictions 720 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil indications only USD 720 vs —
  • Spain indicated for ON at USD 865 vs —
  • Italy indicated for ON at USD 860 vs —
  • Turkey no offered today
  • CIF India indications at USD 875 may do 865 vs 840
  • Currency INR 83.15, Rub 96.30 , RM 4.68 and Euro 1.067


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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