Athena Buzz

 1530 19092023 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday 


Good Afternoon,


Mdex started the day 1.5% lower, hitting a low of RM 3690 before rebounding to close at RM 3707 during the lunchtime session for Nov 2023. As previously mentioned, market sentiments are on the bearish side, but there should be some support on the way down. We do not anticipate palm oil breaking below RM 3450. As advised earlier, we recommend our readers consider long positions between RM 3550-3450 and exit these positions around RM 4000. If you're considering short positions, it's advisable to wait for prices to exceed RM 4250 or higher.

At the time of writing this report, palm oil has shown some signs of recovery and is trading mostly unchanged compared to yesterday. The sharp correction following the increase in stocks is expected to see some recovery before we experience further downward movement. Brent oil has risen to $95 today and is inching closer to the $100 mark. Demand for energy typically rises during colder months like NDJ (November, December, January), which should provide support for the lower end of palm oil prices.

Today, Indians are celebrating Ganesh Chaturthi, and as a result, the markets are partially closed. We have observed offers for Crude Palm Oil (CPO) around USD 855 for spot months, and these prices are mostly in line with the offered prices for sunflower oil.

Soybean oil settled at -112 for Dec at 60.94 and -118 for Jan at 60.33. At the time of writing this report, it is trading at -27 for Dec at 60.67 and -21 for Jan at 60.12. We have confidence that the board will correct towards 57.50 first, with the basis improving towards -1500, and we anticipate further basis recovery. There is insufficient crushing activity, and locally in India, we expect possible crop damage. Although there have been high imports in the past month, we anticipate fewer imports in September due to a shortage of oils at the origin for export, leading to an increase in basis prices.

Among all edible oils, soybean oil appears to be the most bullish, with sunflower oil being the least. There have been no reports of improvements in soybean crops, and we expect to see some damage in India due to excessive rains. However, with sunflower oil being very competitively priced, we do not recommend long positions in soybean oil at this time but suggest waiting for the spread to fall below USD 100 from the current 155 in favor of sunflower oil. The CNF India offers for soybean oil are still above USD 1015 for most positions, while sunflower oil offers are around USD 860-870. Locally, soybean oil is trading at par with sunflower oil, making it the highest disparity oil. Therefore, anyone in need of oil can source it from local markets.

Ukraine has already harvested over 20% of its sun-seed crops, which has resulted in some selling pressure. FOB prices are currently trading around USD 700. With Turkey setting base prices at USD 1350 for import duty calculations, buyers are only willing to pay USD 750 CNF Mersin. In India, after trading at USD 860-870, there are no buyers willing to meet these prices, and we expect the next round of buying to come in only around USD 820-830. We recommend our readers watch for OND and buy only what they need. While long positions for JFM can be considered safe, OND will likely remain under pressure.

Sunflower oil is currently the most competitively priced oil, and with an improving harvest, we anticipate more farmers selling their produce. New crop sun-seeds will be traded in quantity before they go into silos in the winter season, which should result in sunflower oil prices bottoming out around the end of September to mid-October. India is experiencing increasing volumes of sunflower oil imports, leading to greater disparity in prices. Most destinations are not aggressively buying sunflower oil, and there have been reports of container trades happening for China at around USD 860-870. FOB prices in Ukraine may trade lower in the coming days, so we advise buyers to exercise caution. For local buyers in India, prices have already corrected significantly, and we suggest they cover their needs at this time without being too greedy.



  • Argentina SBO
  • Oct 23 -1850/-1950
  • ND 23 -1700/-1850
  • Mch 23 –/-2000
  • MJJ/24 -1650/-1950
  • Brazil SBO
  • Sep 23 –/-2000
  • Oct 23 -1750/-1950
  • ND 23 -1700/-1870
  • MAM 24 –/-2000
  • 6 ports Europe Sept $845 vs $810
  • OND $855 vs $810
  • JFM  $875 vs $830
  • AMJ  $895 vs $840
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Dec 3748 (-1)
  • H 3763 / L 3690
  • Vol :  74,502
  • Oln  
  • Oct 835 (pk) vs
  • Ond 845 vs 
  • Jfm 865 vs 857.5 trd 850
  • Amj 872.5 vs 865 trd 862.5
  • Jas 865 vs 852.5
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Oct 782.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Oct 777.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Sept 3750
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Oct 2345(pk) / 237 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Oct 910
  • Rbdpkoln: Oct 880
  • Rbdpks : Oct 1040
  • Sbo :  
  • Oct 6224 (-15)
  • Dec 6079 (-15)
  • Jan 6017 (-16)
  • Dce : 
  • Jan 7266 (-102)
  • May 7336 (-126)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil ON FOB 700 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil ON FOB 700 vs —
  • Spain indicated for ON at USD 860 vs 825
  • Italy indicated for ON at USD 855 vs 820
  • CIF LW India indicative idea for ON 870 vs 830
  • Turkey Mersin indicated at USD 800 vs 750 
  • Currency INR 83.22, RM 4.69, Rub 96.00 and Euro 1.061

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk)


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