Athena Buzz

1530 01092023 Athena Market Buzz Friday  


Good Afternoon,


MDEX opened marginally higher and managed to keep the level over Rm 4000 all day. At the time of lunch we settled Nov at RM 4041 +31 which art the time of writing this report is trading at RM 4027 +17. As we mentioned before there is some more room for prices to move higher and it won’t be bad for shorts to wait for prices to cross Rm 4250 to enter. We surely not suggest our readers to make longs at current prices but one sell to book profits and for making shorts one can wait for higher prices. We are seeing RM 4450 as a very strong resistance and even though there will be time when we will see good festive demand from India and China it will be hard for palm markets to trade over soft oils. India which has about 13.75% effective duty on ROL finds landed prices of Olein equal to Sunflower oil and with sunflower oil entering new crop phase it looks hard for prices to rally. We will again make longs in ROL if the price correct towards USD 850 or lower. 


Bean oil settled marginally lower last night with Oct -16 at 63.93 and Dec -15 at 62.48 but with improved basis we are seeing higher flat price offers. Hurricanes impact is yet to be ascertained and the damage to soybean crop with hot weather seems irreversible. India too is having hot and dry AUG making the crop already in stress which gives some hope to current price situation. USD offers to India are around 1030 for spot months though we have not seen any major buying but it appears that levels of USD 1000 will largely be protected in soybean oil.  Locally degum in India is offered at a disparity of over INR 6000 or over USD 80 PMT , Sunflower oil is also sold at a disparity and so is RBD Olein. India is today is importing a lot of oils , consuming it at a disparity and importers / refiners are trying to maintain the inventory with a replacement loss hoping for a miraculous recovery. Indian business is getting affected by no means to hedge the current imports and with many players and aggressive offers the situation is not looking to improve in coming months . We would suggest our readers to buy as much disparity oil as possible and try to maximise their capacity utilisation. CBOT as usual is range bound with a risk of rally due to hot weather. We can expect even forward months like Oct and Dec to rally towards 68-70 and basis to mostly remain between -2100 to -2400. 


Black Sea Ukraine sunflower oil traded a few times to India at USD 950-945 for positions of Spot to Nov shipment. There were further offers at USD 940 for Nov with buyers looking to pay at USD 925. The crop in Ukraine is looking large with most of the analyst now tilting towards 14 million MT and so is with Russia who is also expected to harvest a larger to normal crop. Ukraine may end up having over 5 million MT of exportable surplus which will be difficult logistically if the grain corridor does not operate. Risk of prices rally are limited and so is the correction. As we mentioned before we would urge our destination buyers like in India to make longs for Sept/Oct/ Nov between USD 900-950 and any lower prices should be used to make longs for forward months. Destinations like Turkey are being offered at USD 860 -55, Spain and Italy were still offered around USD 885-90 and India was indicated for ON at USD 940 with buyers closing in around USD 925-30. Sunflower oil production is higher and so is its demand. The prices of sunflower oil are much below bean oil and its expected to remain at a discount for rest of the financial year. This will push a lot of Indian soybean customers to sunflower oil and we are very hopeful on increase of demand. We would suggest our readers to be not overly bearish and take advantage of cheaper oils specially when its available at a disparity in India. 



  • *Argentina SBO*
  • Sep 23 -2000/-2140
  • Oct 23 -1980/-2120
  • ND 23 -1820/-1970
  • Mar 24 -1700/-2100
  • AMJ/24 -1700/–
  • *Brazil SBO*
  • Oct 23 -2100/-2200
  • OND 23 -2000/-2150
  • ND 23 -1900/-2100
  • JF 24 –/-2100
  • Mch 24 -1900/-2150
  • AM 24 -1900/-2150
  • JJ 24 -1900/-2150
  • 6 port Europe ond 930 v 900 jfm 945 v 910 amj 960 v 920
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Nov 4040 (+30)
  • H 4068 / L 3990
  • Vol :  46,156
  • Oln  
  • Sep 885 vs 
  • Oct 905 vs 
  • Ond 915 vs 
  • Jfm 935 vs 
  • Amj 935 vs 
  • Jas 925 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Oct 825 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Oct 825 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Sept 3920
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Sep 246 (pk) / 247 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Sep 995
  • Rbdpkoln: Sep 950
  • Rbdpks : Sep 1120
  • Sbo :  
  • Sep 6600 (+48)
  • Oct 6447 (+54)
  • Dec 6299 (+51)
  • Dce : 
  • Jan 7952 (+50)
  • May 7908 (+76)
  • Rm 4.645
  • Crude : 84.45
  • Black Sea sunflower oil SON 810 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil SON 800 vs —
  • Spain offered for ON at USD 900 vs —
  • Italy offered for ON at USD 895 vs —
  • CIF LW India indicated for Nov at USD 940 no cargo for SPOT
  • Turkey understand some volumes traded for Nov at USD 855 vs —
  • Currency INR 82.69, RM 4.64, Rub 96.18 and Euro 1.0844

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 


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