Athena Market Buzz

1500 08082023 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday 


Good Morning, 

Today's market news brings a wave of bearish sentiment. DCE has plummeted by more than 200 points in the Palm sector, while MDEX is down approximately 85 points as of the time of composing this report. The current trading level of October stands at RM 3687, which is a significant drop of -85 compared to the mark of RM 3750. Nevertheless, it's essential to note that our perspective remains unchanged. We anticipate a phase of consolidation around RM 3450-3550 for MDEX, signalling a potential buying opportunity in the near future.

The market atmosphere doesn't warrant an overly pessimistic outlook, as the present conditions present opportunities for long positions. Once the market crosses the RM 3750 threshold upon closing, it would be prudent to consider selling the longs. Conversely, for those considering short positions, it's advisable to wait until prices surpass RM 4250-4450.

Currently, production concerns are not at the forefront. Favorable conditions are prevailing for bean development, aided by generous rainfall in India. While China's recovery has been slower than projected, these factors have already been factored into market expectations. The anticipated increase in rainfall holds the potential to bolster the economy, coupled with the upcoming festival season commencing in late August, which should uplift market sentiments. India is anticipated to re-enter the market as a buyer of Palm products during this time, providing much-needed support at RM 3450.

CPO prices today fall within the range of USD 917.50-925, with solid support for the flat price of Indian CPO at USD 850. This opens an opportunity for long positions between USD 850-875, a strategy that could be extended to forward months as well.

Shifting our focus to CBOT bean oil, recent trends depict a decline of over 100 points for most positions. September settled at -131, marking 64.08, while October concluded at -152, reaching 61.33. As of the report's writing, the figures stand at September -83 (63.25) and October -96 (60.37). Weekly crop progress data indicates 54% of soybeans in good to excellent condition, a 2% increase from the previous week, with about 66% of soybeans forming pods, up from 50% the previous week. This progress instills optimism in the current US crop. As anticipated, 54.50 serves as a robust support level for CBOT, while a consolidation around 57.50 is foreseen. Basis improvements from -1800 AS to -1200 could slightly influence the flat price correction.

In the realm of bean oil to India, CNF prices range around USD 1060 for most positions. It's prudent to reiterate that prices are likely to stabilise between USD 1000-1050, with potential to reach USD 1200 by year-end. Any dips below USD 1000 in CNF India present favourable long opportunities, and one should consider entry upon prices crossing USD 1050. Locally, there's a current disparity, as Degum soybean oil trades at INR 89,000/- for spot, diverging from the replacement price of INR 94,000/- by INR 5000/PMT (USD 60 PMT). This discrepancy is worth capitalising on due to limited replacement margins. Anticipate restrained CNF offers, as local oil trades below 1000.

The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia continues to disrupt port infrastructure in Ukraine. Additionally, an accident has damaged three silos containing corn in Turkey, hampering Ukraine's capacity to fully export oils and grains. Sunflower oil prices are steadily decreasing, with Indian buyers securing prices between USD 1010-1007.50 for various positions and USD 920-922.50 for CIF Constanta. The current bids stand at USD 990 for CIF India. On the domestic front, sunflower oil prices remain steady at INR 900-910, with Kandla offering the world's most affordable rates due to surplus imports. India has imported over 365,000 mt of sunflower oil, with July shipments likely to reach around 300,000 mt, including spillover from June. While oil availability is sufficient, a disparity in prices isn't anticipated. It's advisable to replenish inventories. Sunflower oil could potentially rise to USD 1200, making it advisable for destinations to consider long positions between USD 950-1000 for September and USD 900-950 for OND.


  • Argentina SBO
  • AS -1850/-2100
  • OND -1500/-1700
  • JF/24 -/-1650
  • Brazil SBO
  • Aug -1900/ -
  • Sep -1900/-2150
  • Oct -1550/-1750
  • OND -1500/-1750
  • Mch/24 -1290/-1750
  • AM/24 -1270/ -
  • JJ/24 -1250/-1750
  • 6 ports Europe AS     $1000 vs - 
  • OND  $1000 vs $965 
  • JFM   $1010 vs $980
  • AMJ   $1030 vs $980
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Oct 3692 (-80)
  • H 3787 / L 3683
  • Vol :  64,535
  • Oln  
  • Aug 852.5 vs 
  • Sep 852.5 vs 
  • Ond 857.5 vs 850 
  • Jfm 877.5 vs 870
  • Amj 875 vs 870
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Aug 795 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Aug 800 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Aug 3750
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Aug 247 (pk) / 249 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Aug 990
  • Rbdpkoln: Aug 945
  • Rbdpks : Aug 1130
  • Sbo :  
  • Aug 6600 (66)
  • Sep 6325 (-83)
  • Oct 6037 (-96)
  • Dec 5888 (-97)
  • Dce : 
  • Sep 7338 (-202)
  • Jan 7304 (-204)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB Indications Aug 910 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB indications Aug 900 vs —
  • Spain indicated for Sept USD 1000 vs —
  • Italy indicated for Sept USD 995 vs —
  • CIF India indications for Aug /Sept at USD 1010 vs 990 small volumes
  • Turkey indicated for Aug at USD 970 vs —
  • Currency INR 82.79, RM 4.57, Rub 95.73 and Euro 1.096

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 


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