Athena Market Buz

1530 21082023 Athena Market Buzz Monday


Good Afternoon,


Mdex opened firm and by lunch we were already trading Nov up 72 at RM 3943 which at the time of writing this report is trading there only at RM 3945 +74 after making a days high of RM 3978. Palm is showing strength and  prices after consolidation around RM 4000 will aim to hit RM 4250 which is where it will become worthy of shorting. CPO prices to India are indicated around USD 935-945 however we are not seeing any active buyers. Trades last week were reported upto 915 post this we have not heard any major trades. India will continue to consume Palm as most of the markets are facing good rains and with the festival season in sight we can safely assume consumption will increase and palm is still the cheapest. Spread between Bean oil to CPO currently stands at 153 and even sunflower oil is about USD 80 costlier to Palm. We will suggest our readers to make longs once the prices come back between USD 800-850 and currently they can actually wait for a price correction. Globally governments are getting worried around Inflation and they are trying every thing possible to keep the prices lower hence we should not expect Palm to rally beyond RM 4450. Prices over MR 4200 should be sold and one can again buy if prices come around 3450-3550. 


CBOT bean oil is volatile and is constantly making new highs with Friday settling October up 37 at 65.87 and Dec up 31 at 64.08 and at the time of writing this report October is trading up 94 points at 66.81 and dec 64.94 up 85 points. Once again the focus is on weather , current temperatures are high and with no rains forecasted for the entire Aug traders are fearing a yield loss. Beans are aiming to touch 14.00 with 13.00 as a very strong support now and bean oil may continue to rally. Basis on other hand are maintaining around -2300 will surely give a boost to flat prices on FOB. CNF India bean oil is indicated around USD 1100 for most of the positions after Sept and locally Degum is offered at INR 865+duty+tax a disparity of INR 6000 PMT or roughly USD 75 PMT. Local Indian markets are trading at huge disparity and with hot weather , lesser supplies India will soon have to import more or trade at least at parity. We will suggest our readers to buy the disparity oil or Cheaper Russian origin cargo which is still indicated at USD 1030-1040 PMT. Bean oil is mostly trading on weather concerns and we would suggest our readers to watch the developments closely. 


Ukraine is getting tiered of war and it looks like a very long lasting affair. Some analyst indicate that the war could go on for years and with west mostly exhausting resources it will be a matter of time till we see less and less aggression from both the sides. We hope that peace prevails and the war ends which could bring some sense into commodities markets. As mentioned before crops are large both in Russia and Ukraine which will continue to keep pressure for new crop. We are hearing Russian soybean oil being offered to India at USD 1030-1040 against Argentine offers of around USD 1080-1100. We will repeat that Indians should continue to buy the spot cargo and wait for OND. OND will become attractive only if its offered below USD 950 CIF India else once again keep buying hand to mouth. Spread between Soybean oil and Sunflower oil will continue to rise from current USD 80 to may be USD 150 in favour of sunflower oil. We don’t see a correction below USD 900 CIF India and likewise it will be hard for sunflower oil to rally beyond USD 1100 till end dec 2023.  Mersin indicated at USD 940 today which on Friday was about USD 930. Ukraine rape oil was offered to China at USD 1070 and we do see Interest just around there. 


  • Basis not in hand as yet
  • 6 ports Europe  a/s 985 v 945 ond 985 v 945 jfm 995 v 955 amj 1015 v 965
  • 6 ports RSO  sep 980 v 940 oct 970 v 940 ndj 970 v 947 fma 975 v 952 mjj 990 v 957 aso 990 v 950
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Nov 3935 (+64)
  • H 3978 / L 3908
  • Vol :  41,224
  • Oln  
  • Sep 880 vs 870
  • Ond 892.5 vs 885 trd 890
  • Jfm 905 vs 900 
  • Amj 905 vs 900
  • Jas 895 vs 882.5
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Sep 830 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Sep 825 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Aug 3950
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Sep 245 (pk) / 246 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Sep 985
  • Rbdpkoln: Sep 940
  • Rbdpks : Sep 1125
  • Sbo :  
  • Sep 6910 (+81)
  • Oct 6681 (+94)
  • Dec 6495 (+86)
  • Dce : 
  • Sep 7736 (+66)
  • Jan 7670 (+40)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 910 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil indicated FOB 900 vs —
  • Spain indicated AS 980 vs —
  • Italy indicated AS 975 vs — 
  • CIF India indicated for AS at USD 1000 vs 970
  • Turkey offered for AS at USD 940 vs 930
  • Currency INR 83.10, RM 4.65, Rub 93.61, and Euro 1.0879

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 



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