Athena Market Buzz

1430 07072023 Athena Market Buzz Friday 


Greetings,


USD is getting strong and we are seeing its impact on emerging currencies like INR (now at 82.71) and Russian Rub (91.55). This also makes import costly specially destinations like India and we could see some pressure on USD offers however the same will be adjusted when the exporting countries currency also depreciates. 


Mdex opened marginally lower and by lunch it was down 1% with Sept trading at RM 3861-50. Bean oil is looking at weather and with slight improved conditions we are seeing a lower flat price. Palm too after touching the resistance is correcting and at the time of writing this report we are trading about 2% down with Sept at RM 3834 -77. CPO offers to India were at USD 920 for various positions with limited buying interest. As mentioned before we could see some more selling but will suggest our readers to make longs back between RM 3450-3550. The market will find support and this time the rally could be even stronger towards RM 4150-4250. Sell now and target to buy when market corrects 10% is the mantra for now. Long term ownership could come around RM 3250 and shorts can be made between RM 3900-4150. 


Bean oil settled lower with Aug at 62.98-205, and Sept at 60.86 -208. Weather is slightly improving with Soybeans now only 60% area experiencing drought compared to 63% before and technical resistance around 64.50 is also helping CBOT calm down a bit. We have clearly mentioned that over all we are still bullish flat price but the moves will be experienced in basis first than CBOT. Basis at -2100 -2000 is a buy and one can wait to go long CBOT. Levels of 57.50 are in sight with Basis improving to -1000 soon keeping flat price largely supported here. India was offered in the morning for various positions degum at USD 1080-1085 against this we have heard some basis bookings for June / July and some flat pricing around USD 1060 for Kandla. Locally in India the offers on degum for SPOT position is indicated at INR 920-915 with limited buying. We will suggest our readers to go long this disparity cargo as we are seeing a strong demand undercurrent which could push the local prices higher. 


Ukraine sunflower oil traded a few times between USD 960-965 and most of the inventories SPOT are fully sold. JNPT there is good demand for spot cargo but we don’t have enough uncommitted cheap oil. Chennai we do have small volumes but the same will be exhausted soon. Kandla in India is the only place which is discounting the sunflower oil and trading like palm and this should be owned to make better margins locally. Ukraine - Russia will continue to see disruptions in exports and now the volumes with Ukraine is even smaller. New crop sunflower oil is expected to come only by end sept early October and till than we could see sunflower oil to Bean oil spread reduce to only 50 in favour of sunflower oil. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • Jul  -1750q vs -2000q
  • Aug -1700q vs -1950q
  • Sep -1500 vs -1800
  • OND -1350 vs -1700
  • JF    ?? vs -1750
  • Mar -1250 vs -1800
  • AM -1400 vs -2000
  • Brazil SBO
  • Aug ?? vs -2000
  • Sep ?? vs -1800
  • OND -1350 vs -1700
  • JF ?? vs -1750
  • MAM-24 -1300 vs ??
  • 6 ports Europe AS 1010 vs -
  • OND 1000 vs -
  • JFM 1030 vs -
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close
  • Bmd : Sep 3861 (-50)
  • H 3914/ L 3851
  • Vol :  37,356
  • Oln   
  • Jul 860 vs 
  • As 862.5 vs
  • Ond 882.5 vs 875
  • Jfm 892.5 vs 887.5
  • Amj 895 vs 885
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jul 812.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jul 812.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jul 3850
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Jul 230 (pk) / 230 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jul 910
  • Rbdpkoln: Jul 850
  • Rbdpks : Jul 1070
  • Sbo :  
  • Jul 6658 (+63)
  • Aug 6308 (+100)
  • Sep 6087 (+1)
  • Oct 5989 (+16)
  • Dce : 
  • Sep 7488 (-82)
  • Jan 7458 (-52)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 800 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 800 vs —
  • Spain indicted for Aug at USD 950 vs—
  • Italy indicated for Aug at USD 945 vs —
  • CIF Iw India indications for Aug USD 970 vs —
  • Turkey indicated for Spot cargo at USD 890 vs —
  • Currency INR 82.71, RM 4.66, Rub 91.57 and Euro 1.0877.


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 


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