Athena Market Buzz

1530 04072023 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday


Greetings,


Mdex opened slightly lower due to profit taking and also being very near to key resistance of RM 4000. By lunch we were trading Sept at RM 3946 -39 which at the time of writing this report is trading at RM 3894-91. Malaysia is rumoured to show very good export number for 1-5th July and this could push the market higher. As mentioned before traders could go short around RM 4000 and try to buy back lower but the correction today is not significant and this leaves the room open for some more upside. We could now see Palm trading over RM 4150 -4250 range and traders who made shorts last night could either cover back their shorts or increase the same tomorrow/ or when it crosses RM 4000. CPO on the other hand was offered to India at USD 950 for positions like ASO and for the same positions sunflower oil is indicated roughly around USD 980 today. India was not very active as there is no direction from bean oil.


Bean oil once again settled higher with Aug at 63.67+197 and Sept at 61.74+154. So far traders are only pricing the missing crop and weather premiums will come in to play once market opens tomorrow. Basis on the other hand lost 200 points to even out the flat price for India and indications for SBO India was between USD 1080-1090 for various positions. Locally in India there is not much trade as looking at MDEX traders are expecting a lower market and mistakenly are waiting for correction in flat price. India was offered locally at INR 93,000/- for ready cargo spot delivery from resellers, though direct importers are indicating a price of INR 95,000/-. We would once again suggest our readers to make longs in basis but stay away from CBOT. 


Ukraine sunflower oil has firmed up on the back of firmer CBOT and there no sellers due to lack of direction from bean oil. Indicatively we are hearing some sellers asking USD 990 for CIF India and while small Russian cargo is hinting at USD 980. Bean oil has rallied about 10% from the quarterly lows however Sunflower oil has jumped about 18% reducing the spread between bean oil and sunflower oil. Sunflower oil still is about USD 100 lower to bean oil and has a potential to rally further. We will repeat that destinations like India should continue to own sunflower oil in dips and not get panicked when US weather improves. Sunflower oil has the potential to reduce the spread and may even trade at a premium when new crop arrives. 6 ports Europe are already asking for USD 1025 on the sell side and prices CIF Spain were indicated at USD 985, while Turkey after trading USD 881 spot cargo is again offered around USD 900.


  • Argentina SBO
  • Jun -1800Q/-2000
  • Aug -1750Q/-1950
  • OND -1500/-1700
  • JF -/-1600
  • Mch -1100/-
  • MJJ -1350/-2000
  • Brazil SBO
  • Aug -1750/-1950
  • Sep -1500/-1800
  • OND -1400/-1700
  • JF -/-1600
  • Mch-24 -1100/-
  • JJ-24 -1300/-
  • 6 ports Europe July  $1025 vs $960
  • AS    $1025 vs $970
  • OND $1035 vs $980
  • JFM  $1055 vs $990
  • Palm oil ENERGY
  • Crude Wti Aug +0.86 70.65 
  • GasOil Aug -0.75 699.25 
  • Brent Sep +0.95 75.60 
  • POGO Dec +150 
  • FX
  • EUR 1.0897 
  • CNY 7.2209 
  • RM  4.6497 
  • INR 82.0225 
  • IDR 14995 
  • BMD (3rd Month) Sep -101 3884 
  • Hi 3995 Lo 3877 
  • Vol 59,034 lots 
  • MSIAN OLN
  • Jul 867.5 v 
  • AS 867.5 v 865
  • OND 887.5 v 880
  • JFM 900 v 892.5
  • AMJ 902.5 v 895
  • LCL MSIA CPO
  • Jul DLVD 3900
  • LCL MSIA STEARIN
  • Jul DLVD 817.5
  • LCL MSIA PFAD
  • Jul DLVD 817.5
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 820 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 810 vs —
  • Spain indicated for Aug around USD 980 vs -
  • Italy indicated for Aug at USD 975 vs —
  • CIF India russian origin sunflower oil indicated at USD 980 vs 960
  • Turkey offered for Aug at USD 900 vs —
  • Currency INR 82.02, RM 4.65, Rub 88.53 and Euro 1.0899.


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 


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