Athena Market Buzz

1310 27032023 Athena Market Buzz Monday 


Good morning,

As we analyze the trends of the market, it appears that palm oil has declined by approximately 10% last week, and this trend may continue throughout the current week. Despite this, prices between RM 3450-3550 may be utilized for short covering. However, those looking to make long investments will need to wait for prices to correct towards RM 3250. It is worth noting that inflation is a cause for concern globally, and it seems that interest rates will continue to rise in February, which will suck liquidity out of the system.

Brent is currently holding steady around 75.00, and Ramadan demand is not expected to increase dramatically. Although destinations are presently filled with oil, overall consumption is decreasing. Conversely, Malaysia has reported higher export numbers, indicating that exports from Indonesia may be less, leading to an eventual build-up of stocks. By May, when this cargo comes to the market, we anticipate seeing more selling pressure. Palm oil may see a slight increase today due to slightly better export numbers, but once it touches RM 3600 for June and RM 3750 for May, it will become worth shorting again.

CPO prices in India are being offered at USD 950 may and USD 930 June, which are mostly on par with sunflower oil. It will be nearly impossible to trade the same today.

CBOT bean oil settled May at 53.27 +110 and July at 53.39 +101. Currently, May is trading at 53.43 +16 and July at 53.61 +22. These prices reflect profit booking after a significant correction. Nevertheless, we anticipate the market to return to the 52.50 level. Bean oil basis has remained mostly unchanged, with MJJ offers around -850 vs -1000, keeping flat price bean oil supported. CNF India offers are at USD 1050 fr MJJ. Against this, Sunflower oil is available at USD 950, which will limit the consumption of soybean oil. Technically, CBOT should correct below the 50.00 mark, but this may occur in April. For the current month, we expect the market to test 52.50 again and remain highly volatile.

In the Indian market, soybeans are trading at INR 5200-5500, and Ref Soybean oil is still quoted at INR 101-102. We anticipate it to correct further. Soybeans should test the INR 5000 mark, where we may find buying support, and refined soybean oil may trade below INR 100 soon.


Ukraine has recently extended its export window by an additional 60 days. However, concerns arise as Mr. Putin's stance on agri exports may prohibit further trade after this extension. This situation has led to significant selling pressure in agri commodities, particularly in sunflower oil. Sunflower oil from Ukraine is being traded for near-term delivery into India at USD 950, with small volumes for forward months at USD 935-940. These levels are expected to provide some support, with limited room for further correction. Sunflower oil is currently the most attractively priced commodity, taking into account freight, demurrage, and other costs, resulting in an exporter realization of only 760-770 USD, which is not sufficient for securing any CPT parcels. It is advisable to purchase sunflower oil at current levels before prices rise. Locally in India, ready oil prices are around INR 910-920, with forwards quoted at 900 + bond.

  • Argentina SBO
  • Apr-23 -800/-950
  • MJJ-23 -880/-1050
  • AS-23 -680/-950
  • OND-23 –/-910
  • Brazil SBO
  • Apr-23 –/-1000
  • May-23 -920/-1100
  • Jun-23 -920/-1050
  • JJ-23  -930/-1120
  • AS-23 -750/-1000
    • OND-23 –/-910
  • 6 ports Europe April 960 vs 920
  • AMJ  960 vs 920
  • JAS   960 vs 925
  • OND 960 vs 920
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jun 3547 (+35)
  • H 3584 / L 3528
  • Vol :  25,507
  • Oln:  
  • Apr 935 vs
  • May 910 vs 
  • Jun 895 vs
  • Jas 845 vs 840 trd 850
  • Ond 840 vs 837 trd 842.5
  • Jfm 850 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -7.5
  • Strn: Apr 905 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Apr 700 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Apr 4000
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Apr 238 (pk) / 240 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Apr 1015
  • Rbdpkoln: Apr 935
  • Rbdpks: Apr 1365
  • Sbo :  
  • May 5291 (-36)
  • Jul 5306 (-33)
  • Aug 5266 (-31)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7234 (+44)
  • Sep 7000 (+14)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil May FOB USD 820 vs — 
  • Russian sunflower oil May FOB USD 820 vs—
  • Spain offered for May at USD 960 vs—
  • Italy offered for May at USD 955 vs—
  • CIF LW India indications for April/ May at USD 970 vs—
  • Turkey not offered 
  • Currency INR 82.33, RM 4.42 , Rub 76.53 and Euro 1.0761.


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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