Athena Market Buzz

1400 26072023 Athena Market Buzz Wednesday 


Good Morning, 


Mdex opened firm and by lunch we settled Oct at RM 4110 +44 which at the time of writing this report is trading at RM 4129+63. Palm has seen a break out over RM 3750 and now the resistance is still at RM 4450. We maintain our view that the prices will find it very hard to rally past RM 4450 and this will only happen if the spread between Soya and Palm increases. Soya is showing a rally mostly on CBOT with not much change in flat prices though the basis have stopped correcting we can expect some flat prices rallies which can push MDEX towards RM 4450. We had suggest our readers to make shorts in palm only between RM 4250-4450 and we will request them to watch the weather and Indian market closely. This is still a good level to make shorts which can be bought back when the prices come around RM 3750 and for making longs we still feel prices of RM 3450-3550 makes a lot more sense. CPO prices to India are offered at USD 1000 for most of the positions and is the cheapest oil at the moment. We can expect flat price CPO to rally towards USD 1050 which is where some demand rationing could put a lid on any further rally. 


CBOT bean oil was very volatile last night but settled sept up 27 at 68.48 and Oct -12 at 65.69. Indians like any other destination are largely uncovered and in next 15-20 days will be forced to price most of the afloat parcel and current shipments. This should keep the CBOT mostly supported for Sept at 64.50 and for Oct at 62.50. Basis on the other hand have stabilised around -2200 and we will see it improving a little more. Weather is still hot and we are seeing good demand in destinations likes middle east and India but current local prices still have a disparity of over USD 85 PMT.  We may need more demand to continue rally in futures market failing which we can move lower towards 62.50 soon. Flat price bean oil to India is offered at USD 1170 for most of the positions and we have only heard pricing for existing commitments. Most of the buyers are long basis and uncovered CBOT which is making their landed price higher and to top it the local market in India is trading at a disparity. Soon we will see demand for fresh cargo at current market price and also demand in local market to cash in the disparity. We would suggest traders not to go short in local market in fact would suggest them to make some more longs flat price. Local market in India are seeing improvement in beans prices, Solvent oil too has improved to around94,000/- And refine soybean oil is almost touching INR 100,000/-. 


Ukraine is now waiting for drones from US as part of 400 mio package which most likely will be used to target ships and infrastructure in Russia. On other hand Russians have also attacked Danube port infrastructure which could result in delays to sunflower oil shipment to India. Crude sunflower oil already traded at USD 1047-1050 to mersin which should logically put CIF India around USD 1100 but we have heard trades for spot loading vessels at USD 1065. These are cheap offers on sunflower oil and looking at the conflict we would suggest readers to still cover at every dip. These are not the times to be overly bearish and one must continue to keep making longs. Our readers who had made longs between 850-900 are looking to liquidate some positions but that should only be done with some replacement in hand. We don’t expect India to continue to receive about 300,000 mt of sunflower oil for Aug month and though July arrivals are sufficient we will face shortage of sunflower oil right before festive demand. We can expect sunflower oil to also jump towards INR 100,000 and trade almost at par with Degum soybean oil.  Maintain longs till the time we see sunflower oil at discount to bean oil and exit once its at par with soybean oil. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • Aug -2200/-2250
  • Sep -1830/-2140
  • OND -1600/-1900
  • JF -/-1930
  • Mch -/-2000
  • Brazil SBO
  • Sep -2050/-2300
  • Oct -/-2500
  • OND -1/-2000
  • JF/24 -/-1930
  • Mch/24 -/-2000
  • 6 ports Europe AS  $1100 vs $1060
  • OND $1100 vs $1080
  • JFM  $1115 vs $1065
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • BMD : Oct 4110 (+44)
  • H 4150 / L 4062
  • Vol :  30,013
  • Oln  
  • Aug 935 vs 
  • Sep 940 vs
  • Ond 947.5 vs 940 
  • Jfm 955 vs 950 
  • Amj 947.5 vs 940
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Aug 870 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Aug 870 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jul 4070
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Aug 262 (pk) / 263 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Aug 1090
  • Rbdpkoln: Aug 1030
  • Rbdpks : Aug 1220
  • Sbo :  
  • Aug 7195 (-61)
  • Sep 6809 (-39)
  • Oct 6558 (-11)
  • Dce : 
  • Sep 7778 (+86)
  • Jan 7774 (+58)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB only indications USD 1020 vs -
  • Russian sunflower oil indications FOB 1015 vs —
  • Spain indicated for Aug at USD 1105 vs 1085
  • Italy indicated for Aug at USD 1100 vs 1080
  • CIF India offered for Spot loading at USD 1070 vs 1050 buyers
  • Turkey after trading USD 1047 for spot cargo is now offered at 1050 vs —
  • Currency INR 81.99, RM 4.55, Rub 89.92 and Euro 1.1071 

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 


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