Athena Market Buzz


1530 21072023 Athena Market Buzz Friday 


Dear readers,

RM 4000 happens and most of the months from Aug to May 2024 are trading over the crucial level. We had suggested our readers to book profit and go short if the prices go over RM 4150 to 4250 and we will maintain our view. Fundamentally not much has changed except US crop progress and grain corridor getting closed which still keeps palm well supplied and with prices over Rm 4000 it makes Flat price of CPO closer to USD 1000 mark and this will again compete with other oils. We do not suggest our readers to make longs at current level and wait for prices to cool off a bit. We repeat that prices in the zone of RM 3450-3550 are worth making longs and any prices over RM 4100 till RM 4250 should be used to make shorts with a stop loss at RM 4450. Exports have picked up , stocks have reduced , Indonesia will curb some exports etc have been past events and it will take new information to drive this market ahead. 


CBOT bean oil is trading higher then our expectations and are inching towards 70.00 mark. Aug is trading at 69.97 +133 and Sept at 66.07 +106 that too with basis recovering as well pushing the flat price higher. Basis have maintained the -2100 offer side and infect recovered from the lows of -2400 recently. This has pushed the flat price well over USD 1100 for various positions. India is trading constantly at disparity and with traders locked in basis at levels between -1100 to -1600 levels are making good mark to market losses. The selling though as reduced and we see only resellers entering the market but the disparity of USD 50 still is maintained. Weather has remained mostly dry and crop condition is 55% better compared to 61% last year. This will eventually push the basis higher and CBOT lower but the situation in Ukraine has aggravated funds resulting in massive buying corn, wheat as well as soybeans. We still expect situation to normalise in Ukraine which should push the CBOT lower and we will suggest our readers try to sell CBOT at current levels. Basis on the other hand is a good buy and one can continue to make longs in basis. Locally in hinterland of India the prices of Refine soybean oil is increased to INR 950 and if the situation continues like this we can see INR 1000 trading very soon. We will suggest Indians to cover all the shorts and their requirement locally till we don’t see the disparity go away. 


Ukraine is in the thick of action at the moment as Russia goes against the grain corridor operation and declares that all ships entering Ukraine waters will be targeted. Moscow has also started holding naval drills in Black Sea region and live fires were used to demonstrate their intentions. This has resulted in panic and most of the agri commodities were trading higher. Sunflower oil in India traded 980-990- and 1000 for Argentine origin cargo and later there were no sellers. Today the offers from fresh sellers are around USD 1050 though some pricing was done at 1020-1025 WCI and now sellers are looking at bids around 940. 6 ports Europe has given early indications of USD 1130 on the sell side and the bids to this are already at 1060 making CIF offers to India at USD 1050 cheap. Mersin traded today at USD 1000 and now the sellers to mersin are asking a price of USD 1020 which again makes Indian offers cheap. We would still suggest readers not to think too much and keep covering sunflower oil till the supply is ensured and is available cheaper to bean oil. More is on the cards and post weekend if there are not talks between the two countries we will see more fire works. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • Aug -2100 vs -2300
  • Sep -1850 vs -2050
  • OND -1570 vs -1800
  • Brazil SBO
  • Aug ?? vs -2350
  • Sep -1950 vs -2150
  • OND -1550 vs -1850
  • JF ?? vs -1850
  • Mar -1300 vs -1950
  • AM-24 -1400 vs ??
  • 6 ports Europe AS   $1130 vs $1060
  • Sep   - vs $1060 
  • OND $1130 vs $1075
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Oct 4043 (-3)
  • H 4080 / L 4006
  • Vol :  88,360
  • Oln  
  • Aug 917.5 vs
  • Sep 925 vs 
  • Ond 935 vs 930 trd 935-930
  • Jfm 945 vs 940
  • Amj 945 vs 940
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Aug 857.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Aug 857.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jul 4020
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Aug 260 (pk) / 262 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Aug 1075
  • Rbdpkoln: Aug 1015
  • Rbdpks : Aug 1205
  • Sbo :  
  • Aug 6861 (+97)
  • Sep 6570 (+69)
  • Oct 6363 (+46)
  • Dce : 
  • Sep 7662 (-84)
  • Jan 7700 (-40)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil no offers only indications at USD 920 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil indications at USD 920 vs —
  • Spain indicated for Spot at USD 1060 vs —
  • Italy indicated for Spot cargo at 1055 vs —
  • CIf India no firm offers only indications at USD 1050 vs 1020 buyers
  • Turkey after trading USD 1000 for mersin is now offered at USD 1020 small volumes
  • Currency INR 81.95, Rm 4.56, Rub 90.30, and Euro 1.1125


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 


Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

AthenaBUzz

1530 14092023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday  Good Afternoon, India imported over 295,000 mt of sunflower oil in the month of Aug and we expect that the imports for Sept will be in excess of 250,000 MT again pushing the 6 monthly imports to around 1.7 million MT. These are high numbers and it appears that the demand for sunflower oil will continue to rise with the current discounts and in next 6 months India may end up importing another 2 million MT of sunflower oil making yearly total to 3.5 Million MT for April 2023-March 2024. The excess oil is basically imported by  Kandla based traders who do not won Refinary and cumulatively this is about 300,000 mt. in past 5 months. Ukraine sunflower oil is getting aggressively offered to India at USD 865/870 , CIF Marmara we heard trades at USD 775 and Mersin traded at USD 780 today the offers are about USD 10 higher but we expect the same prices to trade again. India too bought some volume about 18,000 mt in east coast at USD 860 with f...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz

1200 18102023 Athena Market Buzz Wednesday  Good Morning, Escalating Geopolitical Tensions Boost Investments in GOLD, Triggering 4-Week Highs The recent surge in geopolitical tensions has significantly impacted various global markets, including a notable upswing in the investment flow towards gold, propelling it to attain a 4-week high. Alongside this, China's robust economic growth has outpaced previous estimates, stimulating a dynamic investment climate. In parallel, crude oil prices rallied to an impressive $89, indicating a clear trajectory towards the much-anticipated $100 mark once again. MDEX, the index for Malaysian derivatives, almost reached the targeted 3850 mark, while CBOT bean oil has consistently remained well above the 55.50 mark for December, indicating a probable rise to 57.50. Despite the recent spike in Sunflower oil sellers' offers to USD 930, Iran's import ban is predicted to further bolster prices, amplifying the ongoing rally. MDEX encountered initia...
Read more