Athena Market Buzz

1430 14072023 Athena Market Buzz Friday 


Dear readers,


Mdex opened higher and by lunch we settled Sept at RM 3894 +29 which at the time of writing this report is trading 1% lower with Sept at RM 3831 -34.  RM 4000 resistance is keeping intact and as mentioned before this week it will be hard for the market to trade higher and we can actually test RM 3750. We would suggest our readers to make longs once the prices trade between RM 3450-3550 and sell again when we rally over RM 4000 or just around there. For making shorts one can wait for prices to move over RM 4000 and it will only happen if India and China continues the buying spree. Weather in USA is hot and Soybean producing regions are facing draught, On other hand we have heavy rains lashing in India most of the north is either facing water clogging or flood like situation. Next week this rains will move towards central part of India and west which are key soybean growing regions and this can push the market up after a temp  correction. Palm will be preferred oil and if the prices correct one should surely make longs. CPO prices today are indicated between USD 950-955 which are again competing with sunflower oil hence we will not see any major demand. Once the prices correct back to between USD 850-900 we can again see India importing in good volumes. 


USA is facing draught and this has created a panic in trading and funds but farmers and cash market is not taking things so seriously. Board is trying to race towards 70.0 while basis are toughing historic lows towards -2400 on the bid side for spot month. With bean oil still are a large premium over Sunflower oil, India and other destinations are trying to buy more sunflower oil. Flat price bean oil is indicated for India at USD 1050 which is about USD 100 higher than sunflower oil / Palm oil. Indian local market is beans is seeing lack of demand and hinterland prices of beans are trading at INR 5000. Degum on other hand is trading locally at INR 88,500/- and it replacement cost is about INR 93,000/- giving a disparity of over USD 50 PMT. Bean oil flat price should respect the weather and start climbing up which can only happen once basis also starts moving higher. CBOT is on its way to remain range bound here and most of the gains can now be seen in basis. We will repeat that flat price bean oil between USD 950-1000 CNF India will be very attractive and it has a potential to rally all the way to USD 1200 if the weather in USA (dry) and India(too wet) does not improve. We will not suggest trades to go flat price short but if CBOT touches 67.50 for Aug or sept one can safely make shorts there. 


Ukraine/ Russia grain corridor deal might not get extension after 18th July and with this we are seeing more and more European nations trying to meet Russian demand starting with putting Russia back on Swift system. On sunflower oil front Russia and Ukraine both have less stocks and it appears that if the deal is not extended there will not be any major stock issue at the origins but the destinations market will start flying high. Come October the deal will again be in place and we should see smooth supplies. Sunflower oil to India was offered for Aug at USD 960 and small parcels for Sept of Russian origin were offered even at USD 950. We understand before the CBOT rally yesterday some cargo traded WCI at USD 945 and toady the offers are higher by USD 10 PMT. China traded last night at USD 975 CIF Turkey we understand small volumes traded at USD 920/ We will suggest readers to continue making longs in sunflower oil as its the cheapest and we are already at the fag end of the crop. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • Aug -2200/-2400
  • Sep -1900/-2150
  • OND -1550/-1820
  • JF ?/-1850
  • Mch -1300/-1850
  • Brazil SBO
  • Jul -/-2450
  • Aug -2100/-2400
  • Sep -185/-2165
  • OND -1600/-2000
  • JF -/-1850
  • Mch -1300/-1900
  • 6 ports Europe AS 1025 vs 1015
  • OND 1025 vs 1015
  • JFM 1035 vs 1020
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Sep 3894 (+29)
  • H 3935 / L 3857
  • Vol :  28,903
  • Oln   
  • Aug 887.5 vs 
  • Sep 897.5 vs
  • Ond 902.5 vs 895
  • Jfm 920 vs 912.5
  • Amj 922.5 vs 912.5
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jul 845 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jul 845 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jul 3900
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Jul/Aug 233 (pk) / 233 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jul/Aug 900
  • Rbdpkoln: Jul/Aug 840
  • Rbdpks : Jul/Aug 1060
  • Sbo :  
  • Aug 6598 (+29)
  • Sep 6355 (+22)
  • Oct 6205 (+16)
  • Dce : 
  • Sep 7628 (-160)
  • Jan 7598 (-158)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil Aug FOB 850 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil Aug 845 vs —
  • Spain indicated for Aug at USD 9505vs —
  • Italy indicated for Aug at USD 950 vs —
  • CIF India indicated for Aug at USD 960 vs 940 
  • Turkey Seller indication USD 930 vs 900
  • Currency INR 82.10 , Euro 1.1230, Rub 89.98 and RM 4.52

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 


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