Athena Market Buzz

1330 10072023 Athena Market Buzz Monday 


Dear readers,


Mdex began the day with a slight increase but experienced fluctuations throughout the morning session, eventually settling at RM 3845+11 by lunchtime. However, during the break, surprising growth in exports and a decrease in stock levels influenced the market sentiment. As of the time of writing, the September trading showed a positive change of +100, reaching RM 3933, close to the day's high of RM 3940 achieved recently. Notably, India's import of goods increased by approximately 49% in June compared to the previous month, leading to a corresponding rise in export figures. The ongoing heavy rainfall across India is expected to result in crop damage, reduced availability, and increased demand for edible oil. Consequently, the palm oil sector is anticipated to benefit from these conditions, with palm prices likely to surpass RM 4150 levels in the near future. Our recommendation for readers is to consider short-selling palm oil within the range of RM 4000-4150 and wait to repurchase when the price falls within the RM 3450-3550 range. In the morning, CPO to India was offered at USD 925 for various positions, although no significant trades have been reported. Currently, the prices are lower, and it appears that the spread in favor of palm oil will drive further trades.


CBOT bean oil experienced a decrease, with the August settlement at -42, reaching 62.57, and the September settlement at -60, reaching 60.26. However, as of the time of writing this report, trading has shown a 3% increase, with August at +177, trading at 64.34, and September at +165, trading at 61.91. Soybeans are attempting to test the 15.00 mark for August, which may result in increased selling. Both beans and bean oil currently exhibit a bullish trend, with funds maintaining substantial long positions. On the other hand, we expect CBOT bean oil to experience a slight decline in favor of a firm basis, suggesting a healthy range for CBOT between 57.50 and 60.00, while the basis may recover from -2000 to -1000. Overall, we anticipate a rise in flat prices, pushing CNF India prices over USD 1100, which are currently offered at around USD 1035 for most positions. Bean oil is known for its volatility, and any dips in flat prices present favorable opportunities for long positions. It is important to note that we do not expect bean oil to compete with sunflower oil but rather contribute to the increase in sunflower oil prices. The inclement weather in India, particularly the heavy rainfall blocking the northern regions, may lead to crop damage if it moves towards the central and western parts of the country. Soybeans in India are currently trading at multi-year lows, with prices having corrected to INR 5000. We anticipate further corrections in local bean prices, potentially reaching INR 4800 when the new crop soybeans enter the market in October. Degum prices in JNPT are trading between INR 89,000-90,000 for immediate delivery, but no significant trades have been reported for future months.


Ukraine is offering sunflower oil to India at USD 960-950, depending on the origin. These prices are exceptionally low, and considering the decreasing stocks in Ukraine, it is advisable not to delay long positions. Sunflower oil prices are currently the most affordable for destinations like India, leading to an overall increase in consumption. The deadline for the extension of the grain corridor is approaching on July 18th, and the trade is assuming that an extension of another 120 days will be granted. The swift system being reintroduced in Europe for trade with Russia will ensure the smooth operation of the grain corridor. However, the ongoing war situation continues to create uncertainties for other agricultural destinations. In Europe, six ports are once again trading above the USD 1000 mark, while Spain and Italy are being offered at USD 975-980. Although India's firm offers are not yet confirmed, it is reasonable to expect levels around 980-1000 in the near future.


  • Argentina SBO
  • Aug 23 -1900/-2000
  • Sep 23 -1680/-1900
  • OND 23 -1500/-1750
  • Brazil SBO
  • Aug 23 -1850/-2000
  • Sep 23 -1650/-1870
  • OND 23 -1500/-1800
  • 6 ports Europe AS    $1010 vs -
  • OND $1000 vs $975
  • JFM  $1015  vs $985
  • RSO FDM (€)
  • Jul-23 960/885
  • ASO-23 925/895
  • NDJ-24 925/900
  • FMA-24 935/905
  • MJJ-24 940/905
  • ASO-24 940/
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close (Pre-MPOB)
  • Bmd : Sep 3845 (+11)
  • H 3860/ L 3799
  • Vol : 14,092
  • Oln   
  • Jul 860 vs 
  • As 860 vs
  • Ond 877.5 vs 872.5 trd 875
  • Jfm 892.5 vs 885
  • Amj 895 vs 885
  • Rbdpo: -5
  • Strn: Jul 815 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jul 815 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jul 3800
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Jul 231 (pk) / 231 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jul 910
  • Rbdpkoln: Jul 850
  • Rbdpks : Jul 1070
  • Sbo :  
  • Aug 6315 (+58)
  • Sep 6078 (+52)
  • Oct 5923 (+33)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil 810 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil USD 800 vs —
  • Spain indicated for Aug at USD 980 vs —
  • Italy indicated for Aug at USD 975 vs —
  • CIF lw India indicatively Aug at 960 vs — buyers
  • Turkey not offered at the moment 
  • Currency INR 82.57, RM 4.66, Rub 91.44 and Euro 1.0961

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 


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