Athena Market Buzz

1530 03072023 Athena Market Buzz Monday 


Greetings,


Mdex started the day strong following a significant rally in bean oil on Friday. By midday, we had already seen a triple-digit increase, with September trading at RM 3947, up by 158 points. We did experience a slight correction after lunch as the levels rose too quickly, but the momentum resumed. At the time of writing this report, we were trading at RM 3960, up by 171 points, representing an increase of almost 4.5%. As mentioned earlier, these levels present an opportunity to enter short positions, and the rally may be limited to RM 4450. A potential pullback could occur if it rains in the USA, but without rain, we may witness a further rally. The recent surge in bean oil prices was mainly influenced by Friday's June stocks and planting report, and weather conditions continue to play a crucial role. India is currently very active in the market, and traders are seeking affordable cargoes that are rapidly disappearing. Offers on CNF India were around USD 950, slightly lower than sunflower oil, and are likely to be traded multiple times. For those considering long positions, we advise waiting for prices to correct towards RM 3450 before making a purchase. There is no rush to add to long positions.


CBOT bean oil experienced a rally on Friday following the release of the June stocks and planting report, which indicated a reduction of approximately 4.6 million acres in soybeans. Tomorrow, the USA will celebrate Independence Day, and the markets need to factor this in today. Expect bean oil to follow the overall sentiment in the agriculture sector. Corn seems to be more bullish, and if the weather remains dry or if there are poor rains in the next two weeks, we can anticipate further rallies. CBOT bean oil for August has already increased by 138 points to reach 63.08, while September has risen by 117 points to reach 61.37. We believe there may be resistance at 64.50 for August and 62.50 for September. Additionally, basis prices have become attractive, with sellers asking for -1600 for most positions and buyers looking at -1800 to -1900. Flat prices for India are offered at USD 1080 for most positions until September, and due to limited trade in INR, there is still disparity, with buyers hesitant to book in USD. Flat prices are likely to face resistance around USD 1100, so it is advisable to focus on pricing only on a basis but keep an eye on CBOT. The upcoming two weeks will be highly volatile, and after factoring in the reduced area, traders will attempt to build weather premium, potentially driving the board towards 67.00 for August. However, it is important to view these rallies as selling opportunities. To illustrate, at the beginning of June, CBOT was at 49.30, and basis was -900, whereas today, CBOT is at 63.07, and basis is -1800. This represents a 1400-point rally in CBOT and a decline of 900 points in basis, resulting in a mere 10% increase in flat prices or approximately USD 100 per metric ton. Flat prices still have considerable room for recovery, but this will occur gradually.


Ukraine sunflower oil traded several times on Friday to India at USD 965-970. Today, larger volumes are being offered at USD 980, but buyers are still aiming for USD 960. The grain corridor may not be extended, and consequently, no new vessels are being accepted for loading. The situation will only become clear on July 18th, and if the deal is not extended, Europe will face challenges due to reduced river draft during the summer. Freight rates are likely to increase, thereby raising destination prices. We recommend our readers to continue pricing it and, as mentioned before, not to wait for the old crop to correct lower.


  • Argentina SBO
  • JA 23 -1600/-1800
  • Sep 23 -1500/-1980
  • OND 23 -1400/-1850
  • Brazil SBO
  • Aug 23 -1650/-2050
  • Sep 23 -1500/-1930
  • OND 23 -1400/-1800
  • JF 24 –/-1800
  • Mch 24 -1100/–
  • AM 24 -1400/–
  • JJ 24 -1300/–
  • 6 ports Europe SFO 6 ports
  • JAS  $1000  vs - 
  • Sep  1000vs $920
  • OND $995vs $940
  • JFM  $995 vs $950
  • Palm oil Market Close
  • Bmd : Sep 3985 (+196)
  • H 3994/ L 3921
  • Vol : 65,435
  • Oln   
  • Jul 885 vs 
  • As 885 vs 877.5
  • Ond 905 vs 897.5 
  • Jfm 920 vs 912.5
  • Amj 922.5 vs 912.5
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Jul 840 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jul 835 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jul 3950
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Jul 236 (pk) / 236 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jul 930
  • Rbdpkoln: Jul 870
  • Rbdpks : Jul 1090
  • Sbo :  
  • Jul 6309 (+139)
  • Aug 6142 (+122)
  • Sep 6039 (+103)
  • Dce : 
  • Sep 7720 (+358)
  • Jan 7630 (+332)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 820 vs -
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 810 vs —
  • Spain offered for July/ Aug at USD 980 vs 945
  • Italy offered for July.Aug at USD 975 vs 940
  • CIF India some indictions are at USD 980 but buyers at USD 960 Russian origin
  • Turkey we hear offers at USD 900 vs 880
  • Currency INR 81.92, RM 4.66, Rub 87.95, and Euro 1.0890


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 


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