Athena Market Buzz


1530 09062023 Athena Market Buzz Friday

Good Morning,

Mdex opened with strength today, supported by rival Soybean oil. As a result, Palm Aug settled at RM 3382 +118. At the time of writing this report, we are currently trading around RM 3371 +107. As previously mentioned, Palm is receiving substantial support around RM 3150-3200, making it challenging for bears to break through. On the upside, there seems to be consolidation around 3750, but if prices reach 4000, it would be advisable to consider selling. This perspective remains valid until the end of July or early August, with the expectation of a decent rally thereafter. The macroeconomic conditions are anticipated to stabilize, and we may see a rally towards RM 4500 in the OND period. CNF India CPO prices were offered at USD 850-855 for most positions, aligning with current offers on Sunflower oil. If the spread remains this low, India will continue to shift towards using more soft oil and less palm. However, India cannot completely eliminate palm consumption, which is why there is support around RM 3150. We advise our readers not to be overly bearish around RM 3200, nor overly bullish if prices touch RM 3750. The current market is expected to remain within this range for some time before a breakout to the upside.

CBOT bean oil experienced a higher settlement last night, driven by drought conditions affecting 39% of the Soy crop in the D1 zone, compared to 12% at the same time last year. This has fueled bullish sentiment and resulted in a short rally. Aug bean oil settled at 51.58 +159 and is currently trading slightly higher at 51.67+9. Meanwhile, basis remained mostly unchanged, with sellers looking at -970 and buyers asking for -1150. The flat price of bean oil in India has once again rallied past USD 1000, with offers for JJA around USD 1000. These soybean oil prices are approximately USD 160 higher than sunflower oil, making trading between the two challenging. Locally, we are observing limited demand, even in sunflower oil. We advise our readers to adopt a wait-and-watch approach regarding soybean oil, as resistance on CBOT is nearing at 54.50.

Ukraine sunflower oil remains the cheapest oil option, and there is no new development to report in this regard. Additionally, rape seed oil in Europe is even cheaper than sunflower oil, which is redirecting the flow of sunflower oil to other destinations. In India, small volumes of sunflower oil were traded at USD 850-860, and sellers are still looking to sell at the same level. India is currently consuming significant amounts of sunflower oil, indicating that prices may stabilize soon. We recommend our readers to maintain a spot long position and not become overly discouraged by lower sunflower oil prices. With soybean oil and Palm remaining firm, it is only a matter of time before Ukraine sells its entire sunflower oil stock, and prices are expected to rebound within a few sessions.


  • Argentina SBO
  • June -920 vs -1150
  • July -970 vs -1150
  • AS -920 vs -1150
  • OND -820 vs -950
  • Brazil SBO
  • JJ ?? vs -1150
  • Jun ?? vs -1150
  • JF-24 ??/-900
  • 6 ports Europe Jun 845 v 830 
  • JAS 875 v 850
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Aug 3370 (+106)
  • H 3404 / L 3271
  • Vol :  65,064
  • Oln:   
  • Jun 790 vs 
  • Jul 800 vs 
  • As 795 vs 
  • Ond 802.5 vs 795 trd 800
  • Jfm 822.5 vs  trd 815
  • Amj 830 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Jun 732.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jun 727.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jun 3480
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Jun 224 (pk) / 228 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jun 905
  • Rbdpkoln: Jun 845
  • Rbdpks : Jun 1140
  • Sbo :  
  • Jul 5275 (+25)
  • Aug 5175 (+17)
  • Sep 5105 (+7)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 6642 (+184)
  • Jan 6624 (+188)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 740 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 730 vs —
  • Spain indicated JJ at USD 840 vs —
  • Italy indicated JJ at USD 835 vs 820
  • CIF India indicative offer June shipment USD 865 vs 850
  • Turkey CIF indications are Marmara USD 770, Izmir USD 775 and Mersin USD 785 vs —
  • Currency INR 82.44. RM 4.63, Rub 82.58 and Euro 1.0765

Thanks and reg

Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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