Athena Market Buzz

1230 07062023 Athena Market Buzz Wednesday 


Dear Team,

I hope this message finds you well. Here is an overview of the current market situation and outlook for Palm, Soya and Sunflower oil :

Mdex, inspired by stronger bean oil prices, opened higher today. By lunchtime, Aug prices settled at RM 3355 (+39). Malaysia is anticipating higher stocks primarily due to increased production and the cancellation of some Indian cargoes. India's shift towards consuming more soft oils is evident as Palm imports hit a 27-month low. Palm oil, being relatively expensive compared to sunflower oil, is expected to result in Malaysia having an inventory of 1.6 million MT. Production is projected to reach approximately 1.4 million MT, while exports are estimated at around 1.08 million MT. Overall, the current market sentiment is bearish, with a downside limit of RM 3150. It is worth noting that if Palm prices trade below RM 3250, it presents an excellent opportunity for long positions. Conversely, prices exceeding RM 3750 should be considered for exiting long positions, while shorts can be initiated around the RM 3950-4150 range. Although current palm levels are technically near their lows and expected to find support, we advise against panic-selling.

In the CBOT market, bean oil experienced a rally as traders covered their shorts ahead of the 9th June USDA Supply and Demand report. Some cargoes have been exported to Spain, and there have been reports of bean exports to China. Additionally, news about the Kakhovka dam and floods in Ukraine impacted wheat prices, leading to a rally in bean oil. Consequently, Aug bean oil settled at 50.56 (+137), and Sept at 50.16 (+137). However, basis corrected towards -930, while flat prices remained relatively unchanged. Today, CNF India offers for bean oil indicated June at 988, July at 988, and Aug at 986, with minimal to no demand. Sunflower oil faces competition from locally produced oil as well as cheaper sunflower oil flooding the Indian markets. Offers for sunflower oil were USD 850 CNF JNPT for afloat and June shipments, while the bean oil offers were USD 988, making it USD 138 more expensive. Although bean oil typically trades below sunflower oil in India, the influx of cheaper sunflower oil has resulted in demand destruction for palm and soybean oil. Soybean oil has the potential to rally towards 52.50-54.00, driven by the news of higher mandates announced by the EPA. Basis is expected to trade around -1100 to -1150, with flat prices ranging between USD 950-1000. We recommend considering buying soybean oil below USD 1000, but due to increased sunflower oil supply, it may be prudent to adopt a wait-and-watch approach. 

Ukraine was once again in the news due to the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. The ecological impact of this flooding is still being analyzed, but it is expected to reduce agricultural produce. The sunflower oil seed crop will be particularly affected, and we can no longer expect Ukraine to produce 12 million MT. The ongoing war in the region could take a turn for the worse, making it unwise for destinations such as India and China to take current supplies for granted. Currently, sunflower oil is the cheapest oil globally, and we do not foresee further price declines. Purchasing sunflower oil at USD 800-850 levels would be an excellent opportunity, and we encourage our readers to consider long positions. Furthermore, we kindly request traders in India to refrain from shorting forward months unless they have the oil in their tanks. CNF India offers for sunflower oil are approximately USD 860, and we will see some trades surely happening around USD 850 levels. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • June -930/-980
  • Jul -930/-980
  • AS -900/-990
  • OND -800/-900
  • Brazil SBO
  • JJ -/-1150
  • Jun -/-1150
  • Jul -900/-1000
  • Aug -950/-
  • Sep -830/-
  • OND -780/-
  • JF-24 -/-900
  • Mch-24 -800/-970
  • 6 ports Europe Jun  $850 vs -
  • JAS    $860 vs $835
  • OND  $870 vs $845
  • JFM   $885 vs $845
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Aug 3355 (+39)
  • H 3374 / L 3286
  • Vol :  23,486
  • Oln:   
  • Jun 792.5 vs 
  • Jul 797.5 vs 
  • As 797.5 vs 
  • Ond 797.5 vs 790 
  • Jfm 810 vs 800
  • Amj 820 vs
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Jun 730 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jun 722.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jun 3450
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Jun 224 (pk) / 228 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jun 905
  • Rbdpkoln: Jun 845
  • Rbdpks : Jun 1155
  • Sbo :  
  • Jul 5089 (-3)
  • Aug 5049 (-7)
  • Sep 5000 (-16)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 6490 (-10)
  • Jan 6470 (-10)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil  USD 760 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil USD June 760 vs —
  • Spain indicated June at 840 vs —
  • Italy indicated June at USD 835 vs —
  • CNF India offered for June at USD 860 vs 830 buyers
  • Turkey not indicated at the moment
  • Currency INR 82.52, RM 4.60, Rub 81.40 and Euro 1.0685

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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