Athena Market Buzz

1530 28062023 Athena Market Buzz Wednesday 


Good morning,

Mdex had a strong opening, surpassing the significant resistance level of RM 3750 for September. It settled at RM 3783+108 by lunchtime. However, news of lower exports led to long positions being liquidated, although trading remained above RM 3750. The palm oil market is poised for a rally towards RM 4000, supported by the current market dynamics. Even rival oils, including sunflower oil, are trading at higher prices than palm oil. As previously mentioned, palm oil is likely to encounter resistance around RM 3750. We advise our readers to exit long positions above RM 3750 and wait for prices to reach RM 4000 before considering short positions. Today, CPO to India was offered at 905-910 for most positions, and some trades were reported for WCI. On the other hand, China is showing more interest in rapeseed oil rather than palm or sunflower oil. While China is reducing interest rates to stimulate the economy, the local market is still trading conservatively. In contrast, India is actively buying oils, and with cooler temperatures, consumption is increasing. We can expect India to provide support at lower levels, and traders may consider long positions if prices correct towards RM 3150, which could happen if it starts raining in the United States.


CBOT soybean oil experienced significant volatility last night. Rumors about EPA mandates pushed prices to lows, and sporadic rains prompted a sell-off, only to recover as funds continued to increase long positions in soybean oil. CBOT soybean oil settled for August at 58.90+90 and September at 57.97+98. At the time of writing this report, August is trading at +45, reaching 59.35, and September is trading at +30, reaching 58.27. However, basis prices are depressed, with buyers even considering -1700 for pricing. Flat prices for soybean oil have been holding around the USD 1050-1100 level for the past two weeks, with occasional forced pricing. Soybean oil has become the most expensive oil, with offers to India reaching USD 1090 CNF. If the drought situation continues, there is potential for a rally in basis prices, pushing flat prices higher. We recommend our readers to consider long positions in basis prices, as weather conditions could drive up premiums. Regarding flat price basis in India, we advise against long positions above 1100, but prices between USD 950-1000 should be considered, and selling should only occur when there is clarity on weather conditions. Locally in India, trades are taking place at INR 91,000-92,000/- WCI, which represents a USD 60-70 disparity to replacement. Degum oil in India is worth considering for long positions, and we anticipate a significant number of traders buying this oil due to the price disparity.


Ukraine continues to offer sunflower oil to India at around USD 960, although some trades occur at slightly lower prices. With increased arrivals of rapeseed, we expect some plants to shift their focus to rapeseed processing. This shift could lead to a reduction in the discount of sunflower oil compared to soybean oil, starting in July. However, the availability of sunflower oil may become an issue, despite the presence of aggressive sellers. We anticipate that the price of USD 875 CIF India will remain largely protected until the new crop arrives in October 2023. Overall, Ukraine still has approximately 4 million MT of rapeseed, which will be directed towards traditional markets such as China and Europe. The 1.8 million MT of sunflower seeds could become inventory if prices correct lower. Therefore, we suggest our readers consider long positions in sunflower oil, and the current period may be favorable for purchases until September shipments. China and Middle Eastern destinations are also expected to increase their purchases of this affordable oil. Even if soybean oil prices correct, we don't foresee significant room for a decrease in sunflower oil prices. Today's CIF India offers were around USD 950, and there are reports of traders looking to buy between USD 935-940.

  • Argentina SBO
  • Jul -1450/-1700
  • Aug -1300/-1550
  • Sep -1200/-1450
  • OND -1180/-1400
  • Brazil SBO
  • July -1350/-
  • Aug -1500/-1600
  • Sep -1260/-1500
  • OND -1180/-1400
  • JF -/-1340
  • Mch-24 -1000/-1400
  • AM-24 -1000/-1400
  • 6 ports Europe JAS 960 vs 940
  • AS 965 vs 940
  • OND 980 vs 950
  • JFM 990 vs 960
  • AMJ 1000 v 960
  • RSO FDM (€)
  • Jul-23 930/865
  • ASO-23 880/850
  • NDJ-24 885/860
  • FMA-24 900/870
  • MJJ-24 910/875
  • ASO-24 910/
  • Palm oil Market Close
  • Bmd : Sep 3756 (+81)
  • H 3802/ L 3654
  • Vol : 65,142
  • Oln   
  • Jul 850 vs 
  • As 850 vs, trd 842.5 
  • Ond 865 vs 857.5, trd 865-870 
  • Jfm 877.5 vs 870 
  • Amj 882.5 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Jul 805 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jul 800 deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jul 3800
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Jul 230 (pk) / 230 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jul 910
  • Rbdpkoln: Jul 850
  • Rbdpks : Jul 1080
  • Sbo :  
  • Jul 6103 (+48)
  • Aug 5945 (+55)
  • Sep 5840 (+43)
  • Dce : 
  • Sep 7348 (+164)
  • Jan 7294 (+132)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil near by FOB 780 vs 770
  • Russian sunflower oil near by USD 770 vs —
  • Spain indicated July shipment USD 930 vs 900 may be
  • Italy indicated July shipment at USD 925 vs —
  • CIF Lw India indicated at USD 950 vs 930
  • Turkey no offers at the moment
  • Currency INR 82.00, RM 4.67, Rub 85.43 and Euro 1.0953

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 


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