Athena Market Buzz

Athena Market Buzz - Friday, June 23, 2023


Good morning,

Mdex started the day with a slight increase and later settled at Rm 3627 +65, after experiencing significant gains. The palm markets remain stable, and there is no rush to sell stocks. The market trends are influenced by Corn, Wheat, and Soybean markets, where weather conditions continue to play a significant role. The Indian subcontinent is currently experiencing cooler temperatures, which may lead to increased demand. Our trading range remains unchanged, and we advise readers to consider buying during corrections. If prices dip below RM 3250, it would be an opportune time to take substantial long positions. To exit these long positions, we can look at levels around Rm 3750 or higher. Shorting the market for the next two weeks should be considered after observing rainfall in soy-producing regions or when prices on MDEX reach RM 4000. In the morning, Indian CPO prices were offered at USD 875 for most positions, but there haven't been any significant trades reported yet.


CBOT bean oil exhibited the highest volatility last night, with a spread of approximately 282 points between the high and low for the August month, settling slightly higher at 54.83 (+10). Technical support at 52.50 came into play, prompting strong buying activity. Price movements on CBOT are expected to remain supportive as they have surpassed the resistance level of 54.50, with August now trading at +43 and reaching 55.26. Conversely, the basis may encounter some resistance, leading to aggressive selling. We advise readers to avoid adopting a bearish stance around 52.00 on CBOT and consider long positions, but to exit when the board reaches 58.50 and initiate short positions around 61.50. The next two weeks will be crucial due to highly volatile weather conditions, so we recommend trading with extreme caution. The smaller soy crop and the risk of no carryover support will keep prices low, but a hawkish stance from the Fed may hinder the rally towards 64.50 in bean oil. China, on the other hand, is improving liquidity to overcome the economic crisis, but the demand from China is not expected to be substantial. In the morning, CNF India offers for bean oil ranged from USD 1045-1040 for most positions, but traders showed little interest, as local soybean oil was available at INR 900, resulting in a significant disparity of about USD 30-35, with no trades reported.


Ukraine sunflower oil witnessed substantial trade volumes last night in India, ranging between USD 890-910. Additional spot cargo is becoming available, and most sellers are aiming to sell their produce at USD 920-925. Russia has explicitly stated that they will not extend the grain deal, raising concerns about cargo insurance. With more sellers wanting to sell CNF India, it will be challenging for Indian buyers to absorb the costs. Rape seed oil prices in Europe have also risen, but they have retraced from their high of USD 1000 to around USD 900, finding good demand. Sunflower oil seed stocks are depleting, creating a gap in supply around August. Moreover, with the grain corridor's future uncertain, sellers are limited and offering at higher prices. We strongly recommend against adopting a bearish outlook on sunflower oil and suggest considering the current offers. It is an obvious choice to go long on sunflower oil, whether in INR or USD.


  • Argentina SBO
  • Jul 23 -1200/-1400
  • Aug 23 -1100/-1300
  • Sep 23 -1050/-1280
  • OND 23 -850/-1150
  • Brazil SBO
  • Jul 23 –/-1350
  • 10Jul-10Aug/23 –/-1350
  • AS 23 -900/-1300
  • OND 23 -950/-1150
  • Mch 24 -900/–
  • 6 ports Europe June 900 vs 875
  • JAS 905 Vs 885
  • OND 910 Vs 895
  • JFM 1050 Vs  995
  • Palm oil price Midday Market Close
  • Bmd : Sep 3627 (+65)
  • H 3675 / L 3512
  • Vol :  22,432
  • Oln  
  • Jul 840 vs 
  • As 840 vs
  • Ond 842.5 vs 835 trd 847.5-842.5
  • Jfm 860 vs 852.5 trd 860 
  • Amj 865 vs 855 
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Jul 782.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jul 782.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jul 3650
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Jul 230 (pk) / 230 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jul 915
  • Rbdpkoln: Jul 855
  • Rbdpks : Jul 1100
  • Sbo :  
  • Jul 5614 (+37)
  • Aug 5510 (+27)
  • Sep 5426 (+9)
  • Spain indicated July at USD 900 vs —
  • Italy indicated July At USD 895 vs — 
  • Cif India indicated for July and Aug at USD 925 vs 890 buyers
  • Turkey after trading at USD 815 for mersin is not offered at USD 830 vs 815
  • Currency INR 82.02, Rm 4.67, Euro 1.0930. and Rub 81.01

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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