Athena Market Buzz

Athena Market Buzz - Wednesday, June 21, 2023


Good morning,


Mdex started the day with a significant drop of over 3.5% in most positions, following the downturn in rival soybean oil. Although CBOT bean oil settled mostly unchanged last night, the electronic market experienced a correction of almost 400 points, around 7%. By lunchtime, Mdex was trading September contracts at 3591, down 136 points after breaking RM 3750 yesterday.


As previously advised, we suggested our readers exit their long positions when the market crossed RM 3750. We also recommended going short only if the market reached the range of RM 3850-4000. The correction is still ongoing, and we anticipate further downward movement towards RM 3450. We advise our readers to wait for prices to drop below RM 3450 and then start accumulating long positions until RM 3250, with a stop loss at RM 3150. Overall, the fundamentals remain unchanged, and the availability of oil continues, resulting in resistance to price rallies.


OPEC is working to reduce production and support prices, while the EPA is not increasing mandates to control price increases. This will lead to increased availability of palm products for direct food consumption, putting pressure on high prices. This morning, CPO to India was offered at USD 870 for most positions, still cheaper compared to sunflower oil. CPO prices are fluctuating between USD 820-920 CNF India and are expected to continue doing so in the coming month.


CBOT soybean oil was poised to make further gains, but the selling pressure experienced last night led to a settlement for August contracts down 3 points at 58.73 and September contracts down 13 points at 58.10. We advised our readers to stay away from CBOT and focus on making longs only in basis. With the leaked mandate, we are witnessing an improvement in basis towards -1250, while CBOT corrects almost 400 points. At the time of writing this report, bean oil for August is down 365 points at 55.08, and September is down 349 points at 54.61. CBOT could potentially correct further towards 52.50, and we suggest our readers continue making longs only in basis. CBOT pricing may need to wait as China is on holiday until Monday, June 26th, followed by Indonesia from June 28th to 30th, and subdued activity is expected in Malaysia as well. Indians were the only ones trading significant volumes in the recent rally, but today there are no flat price offers. Chinese markets were down close to 2%, and India was also quiet. Bean oil becomes a buy between USD 900-950 CNF India, and if prices reach that range, one should not hesitate to make longs. Resistance is expected around USD 1100 on a flat price basis.


Russia has announced that they will not extend the grain deal beyond July 18, 2023. They have also hinted that there is a possibility of an extension if certain conditions are met. This announcement has created panic in the market, resulting in aggressive selling. Last night, India traded a substantial volume of sunflower oil at USD 950, but today offers are at USD 930 with no buyers. Sunflower oil prices to India may remain stable only if the origins remain calm, but any rally in sunflower oil will be limited to USD 1050 CIF India. Both Russia and Ukraine have stocks of sunflower seed that need to be exported before the new crop enters the market. This implies that more offers will be available, and prices could soften towards USD 880 in the coming days. We would like to emphasize that acquiring sunflower oil within the price range of USD 850-900, or even at 920, is not a cause for concern. It is still the cheapest oil available, although there is a risk of supply scarcity mainly due to war.

  • Argentina SBO
  • Jul 23 -1450/-1550
  • Aug 23 -1330/-1470
  • Sep 23 -1250/-1450
  • OND 23 -1150/-1400
  • Brazil SBO
  • Jul 23 -1300/-1600
  • Aug 23 -1200/–
  • AS 23 -1165/–
  • OND 23 -1080/–
  • Mch 24 -900/–
  • AM 24 -1000/–
  • 6 ports Europe JAS    $960 vs - 
  • OND  $980 vs - 
  • JFM   $990 vs -
  • RapeSeedOil FDM (€)
  • Jul-23 960/900
  • ASO-23 915/890
  • NDJ-24 930/900
  • FMA-24 940/905
  • MJJ-24 950/905
  • Palm Market Close
  • Bmd : Sep 3616 (-111)
  • H 3758 / L 3578
  • Vol :  62,935
  • Oln  
  • Jul 835 vs 
  • As 835 vs
  • Ond 842.5 vs 837.5 trd 840-837.5
  • Jfm 862.5 vs 857.5 trd 855-860
  • Amj 870 vs 860 trd 865
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Jul 782.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jul 782.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jun 3650
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Jul 230 (pk) / 230 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jul 915
  • Rbdpkoln: Jul 855
  • Rbdpks : Jul 1100
  • Sbo :  
  • Jul 5613 (-351)
  • Aug 5514 (-362)
  • Sep 5461 (-349)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 7036 (-194)
  • Jan 7038 (-178)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB USD 790 vs—
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB USD 780 vs —
  • Spain offered for July at USD 920 vs—
  • Italy offered for July at USD 915 vs —
  • CIF Lw India indications are at USD 940 can do 930 vs—
  • Turkey not offered at the moment 
  • Currency INR 81.99, RM 4.64, Rub 84.53 and Euro 1.0924.

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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