Athena Market Buzz

1530 19062023 Athena Market Buzz Monday 

Athena Updates: Mdex Remains Steady as Palm and Soybean Oil Show Mixed Performance

Good morning,

Mdex opened the day without any significant change. However, once it surpassed the resistance level of RM 3750, trading became supportive. During the lunch hour, palm oil for September settled at RM 3773, marking a gain of 30 points. At the time of writing this report, it is still trading at RM 3764, with a gain of 21 points. As anticipated, we witnessed a strong rebound, and now it is advisable for long positions to exit. Previously, we mentioned that long positions taken between RM 3150-3250 should be closed upon crossing RM 3750. If the market continues its momentum towards RM 4000, then one should be prepared to initiate short positions up to RM 4250.

Soybean oil, which rallied last week, remained closed for trading today. It is expected to reopen tomorrow, leaving the market directionless until then. However, we should note that CPO (crude palm oil) exports to India have been offered at USD 915 until August shipment. This could potentially result in increased competition with sunflower oil offers, driving up the cost of CPO. Therefore, we do not recommend initiating long positions in CPO. However, for those interested in short positions, it would be advisable to wait until the price touches RM 4000.

CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) bean oil also remained closed today. On Friday night, it settled at Aug 58.76, gaining 131 points, and Sept 58.23, gaining 135 points. The funds that were previously net short on bean oil have now shifted their positions and are currently net long. We have observed a correction in the basis, reaching -1500 for nearby months, which makes it safer to go long on the basis. We suggest our readers consider going long on the basis while staying away from CBOT. The flat price of bean oil to India has been offered at USD 1080 for most positions, but we have not seen any trades yet. In the local market, a few sellers are booking profits by selling at discounted prices, with offers around INR 93,000, while buyers are looking to purchase at INR 91,000. Ideally, CBOT should have encountered resistance, but due to a smaller crop, the rally could gain further momentum, potentially pushing the price towards 62.50. At that point, we expect the basis to stabilize, and demand for flat price to resurface. As mentioned before, prices between 900-950 India were very attractive, but at the current levels of USD 1080, we recommend exiting long positions.

Russia has announced that the grain corridor will not function, and threats of nuclear action resurfaced this Saturday, leading to a jump in CNF (cost and freight) India offers to USD 980. There have been reports of trades in the southern region of India at USD 950, bringing sunflower oil prices closer to palm oil. While palm oil may encounter resistance, sunflower oil between USD 900-950 is likely to find solid support. Soybean oil is currently priced USD 100-130 higher than sunflower oil, prompting traders to switch to the latter. Sellers remain limited, and there are no visible offers for June shipment. Although current levels have improved, this could be an opportunity to exit some long positions. In Europe, six ports are once again approaching the USD 1000 mark, but CIF (cost, insurance, and freight) Spain is still indicated at USD 930. If prices correct towards USD 900, CNF India may become attractive again, and we reiterate that refiners should continue replenishing their consumption without hesitation and maintain long positions.

  • Agri Argentina SBO
  • Jul 23 -1380/-1500
  • Aug 23 -1300/-1450
  • Sep 23 -1230/-1440
  • OND 23 -1200/-1300
  • Brazil SBO
  • Aug 23 -1280/–
  • Sep 23 -1220/–
  • OND 23 -1100/–
  • Mch 24 -900/–
  • AM 24 -1000/–
  • 6 ports Europe Jul 1000 vs -
  • AS  1010 vs -
  • OND 1025 vs 970
  • JFM  1040 vs 980
  • Palm oil Market Close
  • Bmd : Sep 3758 (+15)
  • H 3804 / L 3716
  • Vol :  67,233
  • Oln:   
  • Jul 872.5 vs 
  • As 872.5 vs
  • Ond 877.5 vs 870 trd 877.5
  • Jfm 892.5 vs 885 trd 890
  • Amj 897.5 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Jul 825 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jul 815 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jun 3800
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Jun 232 (pk) / 232 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jun 930
  • Rbdpkoln: Jun 870
  • Rbdpks : Jun 1120
  • Sbo :  closed
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 7196 (+176)
  • Jan 7172 (+170)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB indicated at USD 800 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil Indicated at USD 790 vs —
  • Spain offered July shipment at USD 930 vs —
  • Italy offered July shipment at USD 925 vs —
  • CIF LW India indicated at USD 980 vs —
  • Turkey indicated for July at USD 880 vs —
  • Currency INR 81.87, RM 4.62, Rub 84.28 and Euro 1.0916.

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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