Athena Market Buzz


1530 13062023 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday 


Good morning,


The Mdex market opened with a slight positive sentiment. However, by lunchtime, there was minimal movement, with Aug 3363 at +14 and Sept 3361 at +14. As previously mentioned, bargain hunting around the lows is expected to support the market. Speculation surrounding Rvo mandates is increasing, and the spread between POBO is widening, leading to some palm oil buying and a 2.5% increase in the market. At the time of writing this report, MDEX Aug is trading at RM 3436, up by 87, and Sept at 3429, up by 82. We are approaching the RM 3450 level, and breaking it would push the market towards RM 3750. We had already advised our readers to hold long positions between RM 3150-3250 and sell when we reach RM 3750. If prices reach RM 4000 or above, one might consider shorting the market. CPO to India started at USD 845 in the morning, but rates have been revised upward by at least USD 15.


Bean oil experienced high volatility last night, but settled with Aug at 53.07, down by 43, and Sept at 52.48, down by 27. At the time of writing, Aug is trading at 53.98, up by 91, and Sept at 53.29, up by 81. CBOT bean oil is approaching the resistance level of 54.50, adding pressure on the basis. In the morning, the basis was mostly offered at -1100, and buyers were looking to pay -1200. The flat price of bean oil in India for June is 1025, and for July is 1015, both increased by USD 10 as the day progressed. We maintain our view that bean oil is not a good buy, and only those squeezed by technical factors are currently purchasing it. We advise buyers to refrain from pricing bean oil due to the nearly USD 150 spread between Sunflower oil and bean oil. Bean oil could become an attractive purchase again if it corrects by USD 50-70, with prices ranging between USD 900-950 CNF India. Locally, there has not been significant demand for bean oil, and the market is grappling with weather conditions, a lack of demand, and the availability of cheaper sunflower oil, making it challenging to trade in bean oil.


Ukraine sunflower oil is currently the most affordable option, but its availability is decreasing. We are witnessing fewer aggressive offers, but it is possible to price it around USD 880 CNF India for nearby cargoes. The ongoing war is intensifying, with civilian casualties. This will undoubtedly impact the overall supply of sunflower oil, and it is crucial not to miss the opportunity to take long positions at current prices. Buying sunflower oil for nearby delivery, as well as for July, is a no-brainer. However, for forward months, we anticipate more sunflower oil becoming available, and it might be wise to wait for pricing the new crop for OND. In the Indian market, sunflower oil is trading locally at INR 800-810, and as aggressive offers diminish, we recommend readers not to be overly bearish and replenish their stocks soon

  • Argentina SBO
  • June -1080/-1200
  • Jul -1080/-1200
  • AS -1010/-1130
  • OND -980/-1100
  • Brazil SBO
  • JJ -/-1200
  • Jun -1100/-1200
  • Jul -1100/-1200
  • Aug -1030/-
  • Sep -960/-
  • Mch-24 -800/-
  • AM-24 -/-1200
  • 6 ports Europe JAS 920 vs 880
  • Palm oil Market Close
  • Bmd : Aug 3422 (+73)
  • H 3437 / L 3313
  • Vol :  60,203
  • Oln:   
  • Jun 800
  • Jul 810 vs 
  • As 807.5 vs 
  • Ond 815 vs 807.5 trd 800
  • Jfm 835 vs 827.5 trd 815-820
  • Amj 840 vs 830 trd 820
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Jul 760 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jul 735 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jun 3500
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Jun 224 (pk) / 226 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jun 905
  • Rbdpkoln: Jun 845
  • Rbdpks : Jun 1135
  • Sbo :  
  • Jul 5500 (+102)
  • Aug 5399 (+92)
  • Sep 5331 (+83)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 6608 (-32)
  • Jan 6604 (-14)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 750 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil  FOB 740 vs —
  • Spain offered for July at USD 880 vs —
  • Italy offered for July at USD 875 vs —
  • CIF India indicated for July at 900 vs 870 buyers
  • Turkey not offered at the moment 
  • Currency INR 82.32, RM 4.60, Rub 83.58 and Euro 1.0798

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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