Athena Market Buzz

1230 12062023 Athena Market Buzz Monday 


Good morning,

I hope this message finds you well. .

Firstly, Mdex experienced a marginal increase in its opening figures. In August, the index stood at 3374 (+7), while September recorded 3371 (+5). However, market sentiment turned bearish due to news of increased production and higher stocks, leading to a decline. Additionally, the failure to break the key resistance level of RM 3450 resulted in profit-taking, and as a result, the market settled at RM 3337-30 for August and RM 3334-32 for September.

Regarding Malaysian palm oil stocks, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) reported figures of 1.69 million, surpassing the estimated 1.57 million. The output reached 1.52 million metric tonnes (MMT) compared to the expected 1.38 MMT. However, exports declined to 1.08 MMT, falling short of the expectation of 1.09 MMT. Looking ahead, we anticipate competition from Indonesia in the Refined, Bleached, and Deodorized (ROL) business, taking advantage of export duty. This factor could potentially limit the rise in palm oil prices, making it unlikely to rally beyond RM 4000. We would like to reiterate that prices around RM 3150 appear supportive, and we suggest our readers consider long positions from below RM 3250 to RM 3150. It is advisable to exit these long positions when prices reach RM 3750. For short positions, one may wait for prices to surpass RM 3750 and sell within the range until RM 4000. CPO prices in India are currently offered at USD 860, which is in line with sunflower oil prices but USD 150 lower than soybean oil prices. Given these circumstances, palm oil is expected to be preferred over other oils, and if prices correct, India may increase its oil consumption, hence the support at RM 3750.

On Friday, there was notable activity in the soybean oil market as we witnessed an upward movement, with bean oil settling at 53.50 (+192 points) for August and 52.75 (+177 points) for September. However, the basis corrected, with sellers for July at -1120. With the rise in CBOT, we anticipate increased pressure on the basis, which will help keep the flat price relatively stable. It is worth noting that soybean oil is currently the most expensive oil in India, and its consumption is actually declining. We recommend our readers to sell CBOT with a stop loss at 54.50 and consider buying back below 51.00. As for the basis, it may become more attractive for buyers if it drops below -1200; until then, it would be prudent to wait. In the Indian market, soybean prices have corrected contrary to their international counterparts. The local markets are flooded with inexpensive sunflower oil, which is capping higher prices. Additionally, there is a significant disparity in the trading of degum oil in India, which suggests a lack of replacement buying. Currently, flat prices in India for July are offered at USD 1020, and for August at USD 1012. Conversely, most positions can be purchased at USD 880 for sunflower oil, which explains the prevalence of trades in this particular oil.

While Ukraine is still offering sunflower oil to India at lower prices compared to other oils, we are observing a slowdown in these cheap offers. Many sellers have either committed to forward months or have sold out their supplies. We anticipate that sunflower oil prices will remain stable and that the spread between bean oil and sunflower oil stands a chance to correct. The cheapest sunflower oil traded to India was at USD 820, but it is currently being offered at USD 880. We would like to reiterate that these prices for sunflower oil are very affordable, and we encourage you to consider acquiring it. Going long on sunflower oil is a straightforward decision, and for those interested in hedging, selling CBOT against it is a viable option. Locally in India, crude sunflower oil traded in Chennai at INR 820, and currently, there are not many sellers available. On the other hand, at JNPT, there are some sellers at INR 830, but negotiations are ongoing around INR 820, and we anticipate this trade to materialize. Looking ahead to the forward months, we have observed fewer aggressive sellers but a higher number of buyers. Egypt is planning to tender for 10,000 mt of sunflower oil, and we also expect the Middle East to engage in another round of purchasing at current levels.

If you have any further inquiries or require additional information, please feel free to reach out. Thank you for your attention, and have a great day


  • Basis Argy June -1080/-1150
  • Jul -1120/-1200
  • AS -1020/-1150
  • OND -880/-1100
  • Brazil SBO
  • Jun -/-1200
  • JJ -/-1200
  • Jul -1050/-
  • 6 ports Europe Jun 855 v 830 
  • JAS 885 v 850
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close (Pre-MPOB)
  • Bmd : Aug 3337 (-30)
  • H 3398 / L 3332
  • Vol :  17,870
  • Oln:   
  • Jun 790 vs 
  • Jul 795 vs 
  • As 792.5 vs 
  • Ond 797.5 vs 790 
  • Jfm 812.5 vs 807.5
  • Amj 822.5 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Jul 732.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jul 727.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jun 3450
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Jun 223 (pk) / 225 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jun 900
  • Rbdpkoln: Jun 840
  • Rbdpks : Jun 1130
  • Sbo :  
  • Jul 5402 (-57)
  • Aug 5318 (-32)
  • Sep 5252 (-23)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 6602 (+42)
  • Jan 6590 (+34)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB USD 740 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB USD 730 vs —
  • Spain offered July at USD 860 vs —
  • Italy indicated for July at USD 855 vs —
  • CIF LW India indications July at USD 885 limited sellers vs —
  • Turkey indicated USD 790 CIF Mersin vs —
  • Currency INR 82.45, RM 4.61, Rub 82.18 and Euro 1.0748

Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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