Athena Market Buzz

1530 05052023 Athena Market Buzz Friday


Good Morning ,


Mdex opened firm and with the new of Malaysia having lower stocks market further rallied to +200 for active month. At the time of writing t his report we are trading July at RM 3595 +170 which at the time of lunch was trading at RM 3577+152. We clearly expect the market to try and breach the resistance of RM 3750 which is where we would suggest our readers to book profits in their longs. We will repeat that for making shorts safer levels would be over Rm 4000 to 4150 and to make longs one can again wait for prices to come back below RM 3450 to RM 3250 mark with a stop loss at RM 3150. CPO to India was offered in the morning at USD 900 for July which is about 40 higher to prices at the beginning of this month. Over all MDEX will continue to test the range and it will only be wise to play the above said range unless any major change happens in Russian policy towards Ukraine , or any other major weather change. For long term basis we expect CPO prices to become very attractive for India if they touch USD 800 but it may happen only when Indonesia also exerts export pressure. 


CBOT bean oil settled marginally lower with July -16 at 52.48 and Aug -16 at 52.24 but on other hand basis improved significantly with may offers at -920 and June at -950 making flat price bean oil firmer. CNF India the prices have improved to USD 1035-1040 for most of the positions and we are still seeing some more demand. As mentioned before flat price bean oil is already very attractive and with the correction in CBOT we could see basis improving further to -500 or better. Bean oil India most of the sellers are at INR 915-920 against this buyers are looking to price at INR 900. It appears that flat price will further find support as the funds may move back into soft commodities hoping that there won’t be any more interest hikes. 


India is flooded with Sunflower oil at the moment and rough import numbers for April month are about 250,000 MT and May also will be just about 300,000 MT. India is replacing palm oil with sunflower oil at various ports and now its again cheaper compared to soybean oil. However the over all processing capacity will keep a lid on what maximum India can import and will be the key deciding factor. Fear of grain corridor not working , Russian response to the attacks and over all uncertainty in freight market are the reasons for destinations to import more. With increased tensions we can expect some hiccups with the grain corridor but sunflower oil will continue to find its way.  Ukraine still needs to export over 800,000 MT of sunflower oil roughly and things should get tough come end July early Aug till then destinations should continue to keep replacing spot oil and not buy too far forward. 



  • Argentina SBO
  • May -920 vs -1000
  • JUNE -950 vs -1000
  • JULY -960 vs -1020
  • AS   -880 vs -1000
  • OND -700 vs -850
  • Brazil SBO
  • MAY -900 vs -980
  • JUNE -900 vs -980
  • JUL   -970 vs -1000
  • AS   -930 vs -1030
  • OND  -700 vs  -870
  • 6 ports Europe Spot 960/950
  • MJ 960/955
  • JAS 980/970
  • OND 970/950
  • Market Close
  • Bmd : Jul 3597 (+172)
  • H 3625 / L 3495
  • Vol :  96,403
  • Oln:  
  • May 960 vs 
  • Jun 940 vs 
  • Jas 870 vs 860 trd 850-865
  • Ond 860 vs  trd 845-847.5
  • Jfm 867.5 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -7.5
  • Strn: May 935 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jun 785 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: May 4200
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: May 239 (pk) / 240 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: May 1010
  • Rbdpkoln: May 935
  • Rbdpks: May 1365
  • Sbo : 
  • May 5227 (unch)
  • Jul 5330 (+82)
  • Aug 5301 (+77)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 850 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 840 vs —
  • Spain indicated May at 970 vs —
  • Italy indicated May at 965 vs 00
  • CIF India offered afloat at USD 970 after trading here yesterday a few times. 
  • Turkey traded last night Iskenderun at USD 911 and today its mostly offered at USD 925 vs —
  • Currency INR 81.69, Rub 76.68, Euro 1.10, and RM 4.42

Thanks and regards 


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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