Athena Market Buzz

1330 03052023 Athena Market Buzz Wednesday 


Good Morning ,


Crude oil lost over 5% largely because of concern around global recession and lesser over all consumption. It also impacted palm and after opening low we managed to trade MDEX lower settling lunch July contract at RM 3402-19 which at the time of writing this report is hanging at the same level. As mentioned before the prices of Palm could try and test RM 3250-3150 range which is where it can become a buy. Fed most likely will increase the interest rate thus sucking liquidity out of system. This could push bean oil lower and with increased supply from Indonesia we could see selling pressure in palm. One important thing to note that Palm remained mostly at par with soft oils and with recent correction it is actually available at a discount of USD 100 to bean oil for July month. This discount makes palm slightly attractive hence we don’t expect the correction to go below RM 3150 mark and a temporary bounce to a price of RM 3750 is possible. We will suggest our readers to make longs if prices correct towards RM 3250 and prepare to sell their longs in a rally or its attempt towards RM 3750. CPO India is offered for near by at USD 970 almost at par with Sunflower oil and Soybean oil however for July month the offers are at USD 865 making CPO cheapest oil on market. 


CBOT showed some resistance initially but bean oil after making days high succumbed to the selling pressure only to settle marginally lower for July -2 at 51.79 and Aug -1 at 51.59. Brazil farmer selling is good , fear of recession is reducing over all demand, Crude oil is also trading at two month lows , Sunflower oil is competing with soybean oil for demand, and Fed is expected to increase the interest rate by 25 basis point in May also keeping the lid on a prices. Basis on the other hand was offered for may at -1000 putting FOB offers at USD 921 aginst buyers looking at only 890. CNF India some trades concluded yesterday  around USD 980-985 and once again we are resuming regular trading in bean oil. Confusion around TRQ still persist and cargo is still not getting clear with duty benefit but its expected that this week the issues will be resolved. India has increased import of soybean oil and sunflower oil at the cost of palm oil and we will continue to see the rise of soft oils for coming months in consumption. Important to note that the fear of recession will not limit consumption in two major economies India and China which will keep supporting global agri business. 


India imported around 250,000 mt of sunflower oil for April month and now it seems to get stabilised around precovid levels. We expect India to consume Just about 2.5 million MT of sunflower oil in financial year April-March 2024 and major supplier being Ukraine. War continues to create issues and destinations continue to struggle with falling price. Sunflower oil to India traded a few times yesterday at USD 980 and was further offered around here. We expect sunflower oil to find very strong support around USD 900 CNF India mark and current prices making long insulates production from erratic price volatility. Destinations should not be worried to consume sunflower oil and buy the same in a correction specially when its cheaper compared to surplus available bean oil. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • May 23 -1000/-1160
  • Jun 23 -1010/-1090
  • Jul 23 -1040/-1110
  • AS 23 –/-1100
  • OND 23 –/-900
  • Brazil SBO
  • May 23 –/-1100
  • Jun 23 -1030/-1120
  • Jul 23  -1080/-1140
  • AS-23 -980/1030
  • OND-23 -710/-900
  • JF-24 –/-1050
  • Mch-24 –/-1250
  • 6 ports Europe last night close MJ    975 vs 930
  • JAS   985 vs 940
  • OND 975 vs 930
  • JFM   985 vs 940
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close
  • Bmd : Jul 3402 (-19)
  • H 3438 / L 3344
  • Vol :  14,659
  • Oln:  
  • May 975 (deld) vs 
  • Jun 880 vs 
  • Jas 822.5 vs 812.5
  • Ond 817.5 vs 807.5
  • Jfm 825 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -7.5
  • Strn: May 895 (deld) 
  • Pfad: May 772.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: May 4150
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: May 237 (pk) / 238 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: May 995
  • Rbdpkoln: May 920
  • Rbdpks: May 1345
  • Sbo : 
  • May 5139 (unch)
  • Jul 5169 (-10)
  • Aug 5143 (-16)
  • Dce :  closed
  • Black Sea sunflower oil May USD 850 vs -
  • Russian sunflower oil May USD 850 vs—
  • Spain indicated for may at USD 970 vs—
  • Italy indicated for May at USD 965 vs —
  • CIF India offered for may at USD 985 vs 965 buyers
  • Turkey after trading at USD 915 iskenderun toady no firm offers yet.
  • Currency INR 81.80, RM 4.45, Rub 79.79, and Euro 1.1018


Thanks and regards 


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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